Processes affecting Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) infestation and abundance: inference through statistical modeling and risk maps in northern Argentina

Spatial analysis of Aedes aegypti immatures in Northern Argentina: clusters and temporal instability

The objective of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of Aedes aegypti immatures based on four entomological surveys that inspected over 6000 households in a large neighborhood of the city of Clorinda between 2007 and 2008. Global and local spatial point pattern analyses of immature presence or absence, habitat quality (estimated using a previously obtained statistical model) and pupal production were performed. Global analyses showed aggregation of both infestation and habitat quality up to 10 times bigger than previously described, ranging from 150 to 400m between surveys. Pupal production was also clustered but at smaller scales than infestation presence/absence. The location of the clusters was temporally unstable between surveys. There was no spatial structure related to the control strategy; lots treated with temephos and lots uninspected (i.e., closed or refusing) were randomly distributed. These results suggest a combination of exogenous (the aggregation of better quality habitats) and endogenous (dispersal) processes explaining the observed patterns of larger-scale infestation. A spatial targeting strategy at the neighborhood scale would not be as cost-effective in Clorinda as in other sites where stable smaller-scale clusters permit the identification of key premises.