[Thinking on schistosomiasis control under the strategy of China's Yangtze River Economic Belt]

Prediction on the spatial distribution of the seropositive rate of schistosomiasis in Hunan Province, China: a machine learning model integrated with the Kriging method

Schistosomiasis remains a formidable challenge to global public health. This study aims to predict the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis seropositive rates in Hunan Province, pinpointing high-risk transmission areas and advocating for tailored control measures in low-endemic regions. Six machine learning models and their corresponding hybrid machine learning-Kriging models were employed to predict the seropositive rate. The optimal model was selected through internal and external validations to simulate the spatial distribution of seropositive rates. Our results showed that the hybrid machine learning-Kriging model demonstrated superior predictive performance compared to basic machine learning model and the Cubist-Kriging model emerged as the most optimal model for this study. The predictive map revealed elevated seropositive rates around Dongting Lake and its waterways with significant clustering, notably in the central and northern regions of Yiyang City and the northeastern areas of Changde City. The model identified gross domestic product, annual average wind speed and the nearest distance from the river as the top three predictors of seropositive rates, with annual average daytime surface temperature contributing the least. In conclusion, our research has revealed that integrating the Kriging method significantly enhances the predictive performance of machine learning models. We developed a Cubist-Kriging model with high predictive performance to forecast the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis seropositive rates. These findings provide valuable guidance for the precise prevention and control of schistosomiasis.

Surveillance on schistosomiasis in five provincial-level administrative divisions of the People's Republic of China in the post-elimination era

Background

The People’s Republic of China (P. R. China) has made significant progress on schistosomiasis control. Among the 12 provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) with schistosomiasis endemic in P. R. China, Guangdong, Shanghai, Fujian, Guangxi and Zhejiang PLADs (following as five PLADs) had successively eliminated schistosomiasis during 1985–1995. However, consolidation of the schistosomiasis elimination in these five PLADs remains challenging. In the current study, we sought to understand the epidemic situation in these post-elimination areas and their surveillance capabilities on schistosomiasis.

Methods

Annual data reflecting the interventions and surveillance on human beings, cattle and snails based on county level from 2005 to 2016 were collected through the national schistosomiasis reporting system and the data were analyzed to understand the epidemic status of schistosomiasis in the five PLADs. A standardized score sheet was designed to assess the surveillance capacity for schistosomiasis of selected disease control agencies in five PLADs and ten counties. Assessment on surveillance capacity including schistosomiasis diagnostic skills, identification of snails’ living and infection status and knowledge about schistosomiasis and its control were made. Descriptive analysis was used to analyze the epidemic status and evaluation results on surveillance capacities.

Results

The assessments showed that no local cases in humans and cattle or infected snail were found in these five PLADs since 2005. However, from 2005 to 2016, a total of 221 imported cases were detected in Zhejiang, Shanghai and Fujian, and 11.98 hm² of new snail habitats were found in Zhejiang, Shanghai and Guangxi. In addition, snail infestation reoccurred in 247.55 hm² of former snail habitats since 2011. For the surveillance capacity assessment, the accuracy rate of IHA and MHT were 100 and 89.3%, respectively. All participants could judge the living status of snails accurately and 98.1% on the infection status of snails. The accuracy rate of the questionnaire survey was 98.0%.

Conclusions

Elimination of schistosomiasis was consolidated successfully in five PLADs of P. R. China due to effective and strong post-elimination surveillance. Comprehensive consolidation strategies should be focused on the elimination of residual snails and the prevention of imported infection sources to consolidate the achievements of schistosomiasis control.