Factors impacting prognosis prediction in BCLC stage C and Child-Pugh class A hepatocellular carcinoma patients in prospective clinical trials of systemic therapy

Ten years of sorafenib in hepatocellular carcinoma: Are there any predictive and/or prognostic markers?

Sorafenib has been considered the standard of care for patients with advanced unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) since 2007 and numerous studies have investigated the role of markers involved in the angiogenesis process at both the expression and genetic level and clinical aspect. What results have ten years of research produced? Several clinical and biological markers are associated with prognosis. The most interesting clinical parameters are adverse events, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, and macroscopic vascular invasion, while several single nucleotide polymorphisms and plasma angiopoietin-2 levels represent the most promising biological biomarkers. A recent pooled analysis of two phase III randomized trials showed that the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, etiology and extra-hepatic spread are predictive factors of response to sorafenib, but did not identify any predictive biological markers. After 10 years of research into sorafenib there are still no validated prognostic or predictive factors of response to the drug in HCC. The aim of the present review was to summarize 10 years of research into sorafenib, looking in particular at the potential of associated clinical and biological markers to predict its efficacy in patients with advanced HCC.

Adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization to improve the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma following curative resection

The present study aimed to investigate the prognostic factors for recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following curative resection, and evaluate the efficacy of postoperative adjuvant transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in improving prognosis. A total of 166 patients who underwent curative resection followed by adjuvant TACE, and 190 patients who underwent curative resection alone were studied retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to investigate the risk factors of recurrence. Separated based on risk factors, subgroup studies were conducted and the association between TACE and recurrence rates was examined. Postoperative overall survival rates were determined using the Kaplan-Meier method and differences between the two therapeutic strategies were identified through log-rank analysis. Computerized tomography (CT)/magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images were used to evaluate the function of postoperative adjuvant TACE for enhancing the efficacy of CT/MRI in detecting recurrence. The results of the univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that tumor capsule invasion, vascular invasion, and multiple nodules were risk factors of early recurrence. For patients with these risk factors, recurrence rates were markedly decreased at 6 and 12 months, but not at 18 and 24 months, if TACE was added to curative resection. The hepatitis B virus (HBV) was a risk factor for late recurrence. Postoperative TACE was not effective in reducing the recurrence rate in patients with HBV. Survival increased following curative resection with TACE compared with curative resection alone. Furthermore, adjuvant TACE enhanced the efficacy of CT/MRI in detecting recurrence. Postoperative adjuvant TACE may improve the prognosis of HCC following curative resection.

Predictive biomarkers of sorafenib efficacy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Are we getting there?

Sorafenib is the current standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its efficacy is modest with low response rates and short response duration. Predictive biomarkers for sorafenib efficacy are necessary. However, efforts to determine biomarkers for sorafenib have led only to potential candidates rather than clinically useful predictors. Studies based on patient cohorts identified the potential of blood levels of angiopoietin-2, hepatocyte growth factor, insulin-like growth factor-1, and transforming growth factor-β1 for predicting sorafenib efficacy. Alpha-fetoprotein response, dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment-related side effects may serve as early surrogate markers. Novel approaches based on super-responders or experimental mouse models may provide new directions in biomarker research. These studies identified tumor amplification of FGF3/FGF4 or VEGFA and tumor expression of phospho-Mapk14 and phospho-Atf2 as possible predictive markers that await validation. A group effort that considers various prognostic factors and proper collection of tumor tissues before treatment is imperative for the success of future biomarker research in advanced HCC.

Evaluation of antiangiogenic efficacy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Biomarkers and functional imaging

Many years after therapeutic wilderness, sorafenib finally showed a clinical benefit in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma. After the primary general enthusiasm worldwide, some disappointments emerged particularly since no new treatment could exceed or at least match sorafenib in this setting. Without these new drugs, research focused on optimizing care of patients treated with sorafenib. One challenging research approach deals with identifying prognostic and predictive biomarkers of sorafenib in this population. The task still seems difficult; however appropriate investigations could resolve this dilemma, as observed for some malignancies where other drugs were used.

External validation of new risk prediction models is infrequent and reveals worse prognostic discrimination

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate how often newly developed risk prediction models undergo external validation and how well they perform in such validations.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We reviewed derivation studies of newly proposed risk models and their subsequent external validations. Study characteristics, outcome(s), and models' discriminatory performance [area under the curve, (AUC)] in derivation and validation studies were extracted. We estimated the probability of having a validation, change in discriminatory performance with more stringent external validation by overlapping or different authors compared to the derivation estimates.

RESULTS

We evaluated 127 new prediction models. Of those, for 32 models (25%), at least an external validation study was identified; in 22 models (17%), the validation had been done by entirely different authors. The probability of having an external validation by different authors within 5 years was 16%. AUC estimates significantly decreased during external validation vs. the derivation study [median AUC change: -0.05 (P < 0.001) overall; -0.04 (P = 0.009) for validation by overlapping authors; -0.05 (P < 0.001) for validation by different authors]. On external validation, AUC decreased by at least 0.03 in 19 models and never increased by at least 0.03 (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

External independent validation of predictive models in different studies is uncommon. Predictive performance may worsen substantially on external validation.

Radiofrequency ablation is superior to ethanol injection in early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma irrespective of tumor size

Background

Randomized trials suggest that radiofrequency ablation (RFA) may be more effective than percutaneous ethanol injection (PEI) in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the survival advantage of RFA needs confirmation in daily practice.

Methods

We conducted a population-based cohort study using the Taiwan Cancer Registry, National Health Insurance claim database and National Death Registry data from 2004 through 2009. Patients receiving PEI or RFA as first-line treatment for newly-diagnosed stage I-II HCC were enrolled.

Results

A total of 658 patients receiving RFA and 378 patients receiving PEI treatment were included for final analysis. The overall survival (OS) rates of patients in the RFA and PEI groups at 5-year were 55% and 42%, respectively (p < 0.01). Compared to patients that received PEI, those that received RFA had lower risks of overall mortality and first-line treatment failure (FTF), with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 0.60 (0.50-0.73) for OS and 0.54 (0.46-0.64) for FTF. The favorable outcomes for the RFA group were consistently significant for patients with tumors > 2 cm as well as for those with tumors < 2 cm. Consistent results were also observed in other subgroup analyses defined by gender, age, tumor stage, and co-morbidity status.

Conclusion

RFA provides better survival benefits than PEI for patients with unresectable stage I-II HCC, irrespective of tumors > 2 cm or ≤ 2 cm, in contemporary clinical practice.

Predictive biomarkers of antiangiogenic therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: where are we?

Antiangiogenic therapy, especially treatment with sorafenib, is the primary treatment for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the efficacy of such therapy is modest, with low objective response rates and limited prolongation of survival times. Several researchers have investigated predictive biomarkers to help identify patients who can benefit most from antiangiogenic therapy. The largest study on this topic to date was based on the pivotal phase III study of sorafenib (the SHARP study) and did not find any plasma markers that could predict the efficacy of sorafenib. Other studies based on single-arm phase II clinical trials found some potential predictive markers, such as early alpha-fetoprotein response, the serum insulin-like growth factor-1 level at baseline, and the volume transfer constants of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging. These findings require validation by further studies. Identifying predictive biomarkers of antiangiogenic therapy for HCC remains challenging and warrants further investigations.

Prognosis of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma patients enrolled in clinical trials can be classified by current staging systems

Background:

Patients enrolled in clinical trials of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are usually required to have good liver reserve and organ function. However, their outcomes are still highly variable. We aimed to examine whether current staging systems can predict the survival of these highly selected patients.

Methods:

Patients from clinical trials involving first-line anti-angiogenic therapy were assigned to different stage groups using the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), China integrated score, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score, Chinese University Prognostic Index (CUPI), Groupe d’Etude et de Traitement du Carcinome Hepatocellulaire (GETCH), Japan Integrated Staging (JIS) score, Okuda, Tokyo score, and a new staging system recently proposed. Survival prediction by the 10 systems was then compared by both univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results:

A total of 157 patients were selected for this study. In univariate analysis, all staging systems can predict patient survival except AJCC, BCLC, and JIS score. Concordance indexes for CLIP score, CUPI, and GETCH (0.752, 0.775, and 0.791, respectively) were significantly higher than those obtained for other staging systems. In multivariate analysis, the CLIP score and CUPI (P<0.001 and 0.009, respectively) predicted survival more accurately than did the other tested staging systems. Hepatitis B infection and poor performance status were also associated with poor survival.

Conclusion:

Several HCC staging systems, especially the CLIP score and CUPI, can predict prognosis of patients who are enrolled in clinical trials of advanced HCC.