Artificial Intelligence Systems Assisting Oncologists? Resist and Desist or Enlist and Coexist

The next generation of evidence-based medicine

Recently, advances in wearable technologies, data science and machine learning have begun to transform evidence-based medicine, offering a tantalizing glimpse into a future of next-generation 'deep' medicine. Despite stunning advances in basic science and technology, clinical translations in major areas of medicine are lagging. While the COVID-19 pandemic exposed inherent systemic limitations of the clinical trial landscape, it also spurred some positive changes, including new trial designs and a shift toward a more patient-centric and intuitive evidence-generation system. In this Perspective, I share my heuristic vision of the future of clinical trials and evidence-based medicine.

Machine learning model to predict oncologic outcomes for drugs in randomized clinical trials

Predicting oncologic outcome is challenging due to the diversity of cancer histologies and the complex network of underlying biological factors. In this study, we determine whether machine learning (ML) can extract meaningful associations between oncologic outcome and clinical trial, drug-related biomarker and molecular profile information. We analyzed therapeutic clinical trials corresponding to 1102 oncologic outcomes from 104 758 cancer patients with advanced colorectal adenocarcinoma, pancreatic adenocarcinoma, melanoma and nonsmall-cell lung cancer. For each intervention arm, a dataset with the following attributes was curated: line of treatment, the number of cytotoxic chemotherapies, small-molecule inhibitors, or monoclonal antibody agents, drug class, molecular alteration status of the clinical arm's population, cancer type, probability of drug sensitivity (PDS) (integrating the status of genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic biomarkers in the population of interest) and outcome. A total of 467 progression-free survival (PFS) and 369 overall survival (OS) data points were used as training sets to build our ML (random forest) model. Cross-validation sets were used for PFS and OS, obtaining correlation coefficients (r) of 0.82 and 0.70, respectively (outcome vs model's parameters). A total of 156 PFS and 110 OS data points were used as test sets. The Spearman correlation (r_s ) between predicted and actual outcomes was statistically significant (PFS: r_s = 0.879, OS: r_s = 0.878, P < .0001). The better outcome arm was predicted in 81% (PFS: N = 59/73, z = 5.24, P < .0001) and 71% (OS: N = 37/52, z = 2.91, P = .004) of randomized trials. The success of our algorithm to predict clinical outcome may be exploitable as a model to optimize clinical trial design with pharmaceutical agents.

Therapeutic Implications of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) in the Treatment of Metastatic Gastric/GEJ Cancer

Gastric cancer remains third leading cause of global cancer mortality and is the fifth most common type of cancer in the United States. A select number of gastric cancers harbor alterations in EGFR and/or have amplification/overexpression in the HER2; 2-35 and 9-38%, respectively. The advent of next-generation sequencing of tissue and circulating tumor DNA has allowed for the massive expansion of targeted therapeutics to be employed in many settings. There have been a handful of trials using EGFR inhibitors with modest outcomes. Using novel strategies to target multiple co-mutations as well as identifying immunoregulatory molecule expression patterns will potentially drive future trials and improve gastric cancer patient outcomes.