Risk Assessment of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Introduction into Poland via Legal Importation of Live Poultry

Models to assess the risk of introduction of selected animal viral diseases through the importation of live animals as a key part of risk analysis

Introduction of an animal viral disease, especially a notifiable disease, into an importing country or region free from the disease may lead to serious epidemiological consequences and economic losses. Trade in live animals is historically considered one of the most important risk pathways. To estimate the magnitude of such risk, the likelihood of a virus’ entry into a country and the consequences of this event should be jointly evaluated. Depending on data availability, the urgency of the problem and the detail level of the objectives, a risk assessment may be conducted in a qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitative way. The purpose of this review was firstly to provide a brief description of each step of the risk analysis process, with particular emphasis on the risk assessment component, and subsequently to supply examples of different approaches to the assessment of the risk of the introduction of selected animal viral diseases. Based on the reviewed models, the overall likelihood of introduction of particular diseases was generally estimated as low. The output risk value was strongly dependent on the duration of the silent phase of the epidemic in the country of origin. Other parameters with some bearing upon the risk derived from the epidemiological situation in the country of origin and the biosecurity or mitigation measures implemented in the country of destination. The investigated models are universal tools for conducting assessment of the risk of introduction of various animal diseases to any country. Their application may lead to timely implementation of appropriate measures for the prevention of the spread of a disease to another country or region.

Quantitative risk assessment of the introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza H5 and H7 strains into Poland via legal import of live poultry

Low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) caused by H5 and H7 viruses is considered a threatening disease for poultry production due to the possibility of prolonged undetected virus circulation in a poultry flock and its potential to mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The occurrence of HPAI may have devastating impact on the poultry industry and has serious economic consequences. The possibility of LPAI virus (LPAIV) being introduced into Poland via import of live poultry from EU countries was considered. The main aim of the study was to quantitatively assess the probability of LPAIV H5 and H7 introduction into Poland (P_LPAI) via this pathway, to evaluate the relative contribution of exporting countries and species of poultry to this probability and to present the spatial distribution of the introduction probability in Poland. To this end, a stochastic multilevel binomial risk model, taking into account uncertainty and variability of input parameter values, was developed. The results of this model indicate that the mean annual probability of LPAIV H5 or H7 introduction into Poland is 0.088 [95 % uncertainty interval: 0.0575, 0.128], which corresponds to, on average, one outbreak every 11 years. The countries contributing most to this probability are Germany, Czech Republic and Denmark. Importations of ducks, chickens and turkeys contribute most to P_LPAI, whereas importations of geese and guinea fowl represent a minor risk. The probability of LPAIV introduction is not equally distributed across Poland with the majority of counties having a high probability of LPAIV introduction being located in the Western part of the country. The results of this study can be used to support decision makers on targeted prevention or risk-based surveillance strategies for LPAI.

Identification of Clade E Avipoxvirus in Brazil

Avian poxvirus (APV) is an enveloped double-stranded DNA virus that affects many domestic and wild birds worldwide. APVs are classified into three clades (A to C), represented by fowlpox (FP) virus (clade A), canarypox virus (clade B), and psittacinepox virus (clade C), although two additional clades (D and E) have been proposed. In this study, a tumorlike skin lesion found in a domestic fowl was submitted for molecular diagnosis of Avipoxvirus by PCR and sequencing. The phylogenetic analysis revealed that the amplified segment of the corelike 4b protein and polymerase genes clustered in clade E. The APVs in clade E were previously reported from outbreaks in Hungary (flock of turkeys) and in Mozambique (layer chickens), associated with a possible vaccine failure to protect against clade E viruses. To our knowledge, this report is the first identification of clade E in this country, providing new information about host range and genetic diversity of APVs in Brazil, and may represent a potential risk of FP disease outbreaks in commercial poultry.

Assessment of listing and categorisation of animal diseases within the framework of the Animal Health Law (Regulation (EU) No 2016/429): low pathogenic avian influenza

Low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) has been assessed according to the criteria of the Animal Health Law (AHL), in particular criteria of Article 7 on disease profile and impacts, Article 5 on the eligibility of LPAI to be listed, Article 9 for the categorisation of LPAI according to disease prevention and control rules as in Annex IV and Article 8 on the list of animal species related to LPAI. The assessment has been performed following a methodology composed of information collection and compilation, expert judgement on each criterion at individual and, if no consensus was reached before, also at collective levels. The output is composed of the categorical answer, and for the questions where no consensus was reached, the different supporting views are reported. Details on the methodology used for this assessment are explained in a separate opinion. According to the assessment performed, LPAI can be considered eligible to be listed for Union intervention as laid down in Article 5(3) of the AHL. The disease would comply with the criteria as in Sections 3 and 5 of Annex IV of the AHL, for the application of the disease prevention and control rules referred to in points (c) and (e) of Article 9(1). The animal species to be listed for LPAI according to Article 8(3) criteria are all species of domestic poultry and wild species of mainly Anseriformes and Charadriiformes, as indicated in the present opinion.