Using Multinomial and Space-Time Permutation Models to Understand the Epidemiology of Infectious Bronchitis in California Between 2008 and 2012

Investigating the uses of machine learning algorithms to inform risk factor analyses: The example of avian infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) in broiler chickens

Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) is a contagious coronavirus causing respiratory and urogenital disease in chickens and is responsible for significant economic losses for both the broiler and table egg layer industries. Despite IBV being regularly monitored using standard epidemiologic surveillance practices, knowledge and evidence of risk factors associated with IBV transmission remain limited. The study objective was to compare risk factor modeling outcomes between a traditional stepwise variable selection approach and a machine learning-based random forest Boruta algorithm using routinely collected IBV antibody titer data from broiler flocks. IBV antibody sampling events (n = 1111) from 166 broiler sites between 2016 and 2021 were accessed. Ninety-two geospatial-related and poultry-density variables were obtained using a geographic information system and data sets from publicly available sources. Seventeen and 27 candidate variables were screened to potentially have an association with elevated IBV antibody titers according to the manual selection and machine learning algorithm, respectively. Selected variables from both methods were further investigated by construction of multivariable generalized mixed logistic regression models. Six variables were shortlisted by both screening methods, which included year, distance to urban areas, main roads, landcover, density of layer sites and year, however, final models for both approaches only shared year as an important predictor. Despite limited significance of clinical outcomes, this work showcases the potential of a novel explorative modeling approach in combination with often unutilized resources such as publicly available geospatial data, surveillance health data and machine learning as potential supplementary tools to investigate risk factors related to infectious diseases.

Infectious Bronchitis Virus Prevalence, Characterization, and Strain Identification in California Backyard Chickens

Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) causes significant losses in the poultry industry throughout the world. Here we characterize the lesions of infectious bronchitis (IB) and IBV prevalence and identify the circulating strains in small flocks in California. Backyard chickens (BYCs) submitted to the Davis (Northern California; NorCal) and San Bernardino (Southern California; SoCal) branches of the California Animal Health and Food Safety Laboratory System from January through March 2019 were included in the study. Trachea, kidney, and cecal tonsils were collected for real-time reverse transcriptase (qRT)-PCR, histology, immunohistochemistry (IHC), and sequence analysis. A total of 50 chickens out of 169 submissions tested positive for IBV by qRT-PCR. Of these, 16% (20/123) were from NorCal and 65% (30/46) from SoCal laboratory. The cecal tonsil was the most frequently positive tissue by qRT-PCR and IHC. Lymphoplasmacytic tracheitis was the most frequent histopathologic finding in 24 of 39 birds, while the kidney showed interstitial nephritis, tubular necrosis, tubular dilation, and/or gout in 14 of 43 chickens. Infectious bronchitis virus played a primary role or a synergistic effect in the mortality of chickens that succumbed to other infectious diseases. The sequences of IBV detected in 22 birds were analyzed, and 14 strains were most similar to CA1737. One strain each matched Conn46, Cal99, and ArkDPI, and the remaining five did not have a substantial match to any available reference strains. The findings in this study indicate that small flocks can be reservoirs of IBV and might facilitate evolution of new variants as well as reversion of attenuated strains to virulence.

Genetic and antigenic heterogeneity of GI-1/Massachusetts lineage infectious bronchitis virus variants recently isolated in China

Four GI-1/Massachusetts-type (GI-1/Mass-type) infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) strains were isolated and the complete genomes of these isolates, coupled with the Mass-type live-attenuated vaccine H120 and the Mass-type pathogenic M41 strains, were sequenced in the present study. Our results show that isolates LJL/140820 and I0306/17 may be derived from the Ma5 (another Mass-type live-attenuated vaccine strain) and H120 vaccine strains, respectively. The I1124/16 strain was found to be a M41 variant that likely resulted from nucleotide accumulated mutations in the genome. Consistently, the results of the virus neutralization test showed that isolate I1124/16 was antigenically related but slight different from the M41. Our results from the protection experiments pointed out that chickens immunized with H120 failed to eliminate viral shedding after infection with the isolate I1124/16, which was different from that of M41; this result was consistent to the field observation and further implicated that the variant IBV isolate I1124/16 was antigenic different from the M41 strain. Furthermore, the I1124/16 was found to have comparable but slightly lower pathogenicity with the M41 strain. More studies based on the reverse genetic techniques are needed to elucidate the amino acids in the S1 subunit of spike protein contributing to the altered antigenicity of the isolate I1124/16. In addition, an IBV isolate, LJL/130609, was found to be originated from recombination events between the I1124/16- and Connecticut-like strains. Our results from the virus neutralization test also showed that isolates LJL/130609 and I1124/16 were antigenic closely related. Hence, there are at least 3 different genetic evolution patterns for the circulation of the GI-1/Mass-type IBV field strains in China. The differences of vaccines used, the field conditions and genetic pressures between different flocks, likely account for the emergence, evolution patterns, and characteristics of the Mass-type IBV strains.