Indirect evidence of prey-switching in minks: empirical evidence, theoretical modeling, and spatial drivers

Population dynamics of muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus) and American mink (Neovison vison): investigating contemporary patterns in a classic predator–prey system

A well-studied predator–prey relationship between American mink (Neovison vison (Schreber, 1777); formerly known as Mustela vison Schreber, 1777) and muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus (Linnaeus, 1766)) in Canada has advanced our understanding of population cycles including the influence of density dependence and lagged responses of predators to prey abundances. However, it is unclear if patterns observed in Canada extend across the southern half of their native range. We used data from the United States to create a 41-year time series of mink and muskrat harvest reports (1970–2011) for 36 states. After controlling for pelt-price effects, we used second-order autoregressive and Lomb–Scargle spectral density models to identify the presence and periodicity of muskrat population cycles. Additionally, we tested for evidence of delayed or direct density dependence and for predator-driven population dynamics. Our results suggest muskrat populations may cycle in parts of the United States; however, results varied by modeling approaches with Lomb–Scargle analyses providing more precise parameter estimates. Observed cycle lengths were longer than expected with weak amplitudes and we urge caution when interpreting these results. We did not detect evidence of a predator–prey relationship driven by a lagged numerical response of American mink. American mink and muskrat fur returns were largely correlated across the region suggesting extraneous factors likely synchronize both populations.