Predicting Anuran Abundance Using an Automated Acoustics Approach

A new method for the estimation of minimum adult frog density from a large-scale audial survey

Audial surveys of anuran amphibians (frogs, toads and similar) are cost-effective and allow for the coverage of large areas, but they are usually regarded as unsuitable for population size estimations due to imperfect detection. Our study demonstrated a method for obtaining minimum adult population size estimates from vocalising anuran counts by using sex ratios, life history and vocalising behaviour parameters from other studies. We collected data from 2016 to 2018 for seven taxa on 65 plots (each 25 km²) representing the entirety of Latvia. Among taxa, average breeding waterbody audible detection probabilities ranged from 0.56 to 0.88 per plot, minimum adult frog density (MAFD) estimates were from 12.0 to 51.7 individuals per km², but the estimated fraction of population covered by MAFD varied from 57 to 86%. The least accurate density estimates were in taxa with brief calling activity and quiet mating calls (Rana temporaria), and in taxa with a calling activity dependent on the numbers of males in a pond (Bufo bufo). Our study suggests that lek-breeders would be more suitable than explosive-breeding taxa for minimum population size estimates from audial data. The use of MAFD allowed for coarse minimum population size estimates for the entire country from the audial monitoring data, these ranged from 3.7 ± 0.5 thousand (Bombina bombina) to 1.64 ± 0.47 million (B.bufo) adults.