Dealing with false positive risk as an indicator of misperceived effectiveness of conservation interventions

As human pressures on the environment continue to spread and intensify, effective conservation interventions are direly needed to prevent threats, reduce conflicts, and recover populations and landscapes in a liaison between science and conservation. It is practically important to discriminate between true and false (or misperceived) effectiveness of interventions as false perceptions may shape a wrong conservation agenda and lead to inappropriate decisions and management actions. This study used the false positive risk (FPR) to estimate the rates of misperceived effectiveness of electric fences (overstated if reported as effective but actually ineffective based on FPR; understated otherwise), explain their causes and propose recommendations on how to improve the representation of true effectiveness. Electric fences are widely applied to reduce damage to fenced assets, such as livestock and beehives, or increase survival of fenced populations. The analysis of 109 cases from 50 publications has shown that the effectiveness of electric fences was overstated in at least one-third of cases, from 31.8% at FPR = 0.2 (20% risk) to 51.1% at FPR = 0.05 (5% risk, true effectiveness). In contrast, understatement reduced from 23.8% to 9.5% at these thresholds of FPR. This means that truly effective applications of electric fences were only 48.9% of all cases reported as effective, but truly ineffective cases were 90.5%, implying that the effectiveness of electric fences was heavily overstated. The main reasons of this bias were the lack of statistical testing or improper reporting of test results (63.3% of cases) and interpretation of marginally significant results (p < 0.05, p < 0.1 and p around 0.05) as indicators of effectiveness (10.1%). In conclusion, FPR is an important tool for estimating true effectiveness of conservation interventions and its application is highly recommended to disentangle true and false effectiveness for planning appropriate conservation actions. Researchers are encouraged to calculate FPR, publish its constituent statistics (especially treatment and control sample sizes) and explicitly provide test results with p values. It is suggested to call the effectiveness “true” if FPR < 0.05, “suggestive” if 0.05 ≤ FPR < 0.2 and “false” if FPR ≥ 0.2.

Bt Proteins Exacerbate Negative Growth Effects in Juvenile Rusty (F. rusticus) Crayfish Fed Corn Diet

The adoption of genetically modified (GM) crops has occurred rapidly in the United States. The transfer of GM corn byproducts from agricultural fields to nearby streams after harvest is significant and occurs well into the post-harvest year. These corn leaves, stems, and cobs then become a detrital food source for organisms, such as shredders in the stream ecosystem. Considering that the nontarget effects of Bt corn have been observed in some terrestrial organisms, we assessed whether Bt toxins affect an important aquatic organism, juvenile F. rusticus crayfish. Juvenile crayfish were fed six distinct diet treatments: two varieties of Bt corn, two non-Bt controls of herbicide tolerant corn, and two controls: fish gelatin and river detritus. Juveniles were fed these diets while housed in flow-through artificial streams that received natural stream water from a local source. Specific growth rate and survivorship of the crayfish were measured throughout the study. Juveniles fed corn diets grew significantly less and had reduced survival compared with juveniles fed fish gelatin or river detritus diets. Furthermore, juveniles fed one Bt variety of corn (VT Triple Pro^®) exhibited significantly less growth than those fed one of the herbicide tolerant varieties (Roundup Ready 2^®). Our study shows that corn inputs to streams may be detrimental to the growth and survivorship of juvenile crayfish and that certain Bt varieties may exacerbate these negative effects. These effects on crayfish will have repercussions for the entire ecosystem, because crayfish are conduits of energy between many trophic levels.

Detection and Control of Invasive Freshwater Crayfish: From Traditional to Innovative Methods

Invasive alien species are widespread in freshwater systems compared to terrestrial ecosystems. Among crustaceans, crayfish in particular have been widely introduced and are considered a major threat to freshwater ecosystem functioning. New emerging techniques for detecting and controlling invasive crayfish and protecting endangered native species are; thus, now highly desirable and several are under evaluation. Important innovations have been developed in recent years for detection of both invasive and native crayfish, mainly through eDNA, which allows for the detection of the target species even at low abundance levels and when not directly observable. Forecasting models have also moved towards the creation of realistic invasion scenarios, allowing effective management plans to be developed in advance of invasions. The importance of monitoring the spread and impacts of crayfish and pathogens in developing national data and research networks is emphasised; here “citizen science” can also play a role. Emerging techniques are still being considered in the field of invasive crayfish control. Although for decades the main traditional techniques to manage invasive crayfish were solely based on trapping, since 2010 biological, biocidal, autocidal controls and sexual attractants, monosex populations, RNA interference, the sterile male release technique and oral delivery have all also been investigated for crayfish control. In this review, ongoing methodologies applied to the detection and management of invasive crayfish are discussed, highlighting their benefits and limitations.