The first management of a marine invader in Africa: The importance of trials prior to setting long-term management goals

Biological invasions severely impact on marine ecosystems around the world, but to date management is rare and has not previously been attempted in Africa. This study documents a trial management programme aimed at informing a national management strategy for the invasive European shore crab, Carcinus maenas, in South Africa. The approach involved testing control methods used elsewhere (baited traps, crab condos, diver collections and sediment dredging) and adapting these to the local context. Following these trials, baited traps were deployed over the course of the year, and the catch per unit effort (CPUE) tracked. A total of 36,244 crabs were collected during the management period, six times more than a pre-management population estimate. The population was not extirpated and CPUE increased once trapping ceased. The cost of attempting nationwide eradication is prohibitive, particularly given the lack of current impacts by this crab in this region and the possibility of reintroduction. We highlight key administrative challenges encountered, and the importance of such pilot trials in setting long-term goals when attempting alien species management interventions.

A seasonal, density-dependent model for the management of an invasive weed

The population effects of harvest depend on complex interactions between density dependence, seasonality, stage structure, and management timing. Here we present a periodic nonlinear matrix population model that incorporates seasonal density dependence with stage-selective and seasonally selective harvest. To this model, we apply newly developed perturbation analyses to determine how population densities respond to changes in harvest and demographic parameters. We use the model to examine the effects of popular control strategies and demographic perturbations on the invasive weed garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata). We find that seasonality is a major factor in harvest outcomes, because population dynamics may depend significantly on both the season of management and the season of observation. Strategies that reduce densities in one season can drive increases in another, with strategies giving positive sensitivities of density in the target seasons leading to compensatory effects that invasive species managers should avoid. Conversely, demographic parameters to which density is very elastic (e.g., seeding survival, second-year rosette spring survival, and the flowering to fruiting adult transition for maximum summer densities) may indicate promising management targets.

The importance of space, time, and stochasticity to the demography and management of Alliaria petiolata

As population modeling is increasingly called upon to guide policy and management, it is important that we understand not only the central tendencies of our study systems, but the consequences of their variation in space and time as well. The invasive plant Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) is actively managed in the United States and is the focus of a developing biological control program. Two weevils (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Ceutorhynchus) that reduce fecundity (C. alliariae) and rosette survival plus fecundity (C. scrobicollis) are under consideration for release pending host specificity testing. We used a demographic modeling approach to (1) quantify variability in A. petiolata growth and vital rates and (2) assess the potential for single- or multiple-agent biocontrol to suppress growth of 12 A. petiolata populations in Illinois and Michigan studied over three plant generations. We used perturbation analyses and simulation models with stochastic environments to estimate stochastic growth rates (lambda(S)) and predict the probability of successful management using either a single biocontrol agent or two agent species together. Not all populations exhibited invasive dynamics. Estimates of lambda(S) ranged from 0.78 to 2.21 across sites, while annual, deterministic growth (lambda) varied up to sevenfold within individual sites. Given our knowledge of the biocontrol agents, this analysis suggests that C. scrobicollis alone may control A. petiolata at up to 63% of our study sites where lambda >1, with the combination of both agents predicted to succeed at 88% of sites. Across sites and years, the elasticity rankings were dependent on lambda. Reductions of rosette survival, fecundity, or germination of new seeds are predicted to cause the greatest reduction of lambda in growing populations. In declining populations, transitions affecting seed bank survival have the greatest effect on lambda. This contrasts with past analyses that varied parameters individually in an otherwise constant matrix, which may yield unrealistic predictions by decoupling natural parameter covariances. Overall, comparisons of stochastic and deterministic growth rates illustrate how analyses of individual populations or years could misguide management or fail to characterize complex traits such as invasiveness that emerge as attributes of populations rather than species.

Modelling the dynamics of feral alfalfa populations and its management implications

Background

Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba), one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations.

Conclusions/Significance

Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production systems for specific traits. The modelling framework outlined in this paper could be applied to other perennial herbaceous plants with similar life-history characteristics.

Complex population dynamics and control of the invasive biennial Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard)

Controlling species invasions is a leading problem for applied ecology. While controlling populations expanding linearly or exponentially is straightforward, intervention in systems with complex dynamics can have complicated, and sometimes counterintuitive, consequences. Most invasive plant populations are stage-structured and density-dependent--a recipe for complex dynamics--and yet few population models have been created to explore the effects of control efforts on such species. We examined the demography of the invasive biennial plant Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) on the front of its spread into a natural area and found evidence of strong density dependence in vital rates of first-year rosette and second-year adult stage classes. We parameterized a density-dependent, stage-structured projection model using field-collected data. This model produces two-point cycles with alternating years in which adults vs. rosettes are more prevalent. Such population dynamics match observations in natural populations, suggesting that these complicated population dynamics may result from deterministic rules. We used this model to evaluate simulated management strategies, including herbicide treatment of rosettes and clipping or pulling of adult plants. Management of A. petiolata by inducing mortality of either rosettes or adults will not be effective at reducing population density unless the induced mortality is very high (>95% for rosettes and >85% for adults) and repeated every year. Indeed, induced mortality of rosettes can be counterproductive, causing increases in the stationary distribution of A. petiolata density. This species is typical of many invasive plants (stage-structured, short-lived, high fertility) and exhibits common forms of density dependence. Thus, the management implications of our study should apply broadly to other species with similar life histories. We suggest that management should focus on managing adults rather than rosettes, and on creating efficient control in targeted areas of the population, rather than spreading less efficient efforts widely.