[Dilated cardiomyopathy as a cause of ischemic stroke]

Risk factors and a Bayesian network model to predict ischemic stroke in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to identify risk factors and create a predictive model for ischemic stroke (IS) in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) using the Bayesian network (BN) approach.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We collected clinical data of 634 patients with DCM treated at three referral management centers in Beijing between 2016 and 2021, including 127 with and 507 without IS. The patients were randomly divided into training (441 cases) and test (193 cases) sets at a ratio of 7:3. A BN model was established using the Tabu search algorithm with the training set data and verified with the test set data. The BN and logistic regression models were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that hypertension, hyperlipidemia, atrial fibrillation/flutter, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and intracardiac thrombosis were associated with IS. The BN model found that hyperlipidemia, atrial fibrillation (AF) or atrial flutter, eGFR, and intracardiac thrombosis were closely associated with IS. Compared to the logistic regression model, the BN model for IS performed better or equally well in the training and test sets, with respective accuracies of 83.7 and 85.5%, AUC of 0.763 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.708-0.818] and 0.822 (95% CI, 0.748-0.896), sensitivities of 20.2 and 44.2%, and specificities of 98.3 and 97.3%.

CONCLUSION

Hypertension, hyperlipidemia, AF or atrial flutter, low eGFR, and intracardiac thrombosis were good predictors of IS in patients with DCM. The BN model was superior to the traditional logistic regression model in predicting IS in patients with DCM and is, therefore, more suitable for early IS detection and diagnosis, and could help prevent the occurrence and recurrence of IS in this patient cohort.

Decreased eGFR Is Associated With Ischemic Stroke in Patients With Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is increasingly indicated as a cause of cardioembolic syndrome, in particular, cardioembolic ischemia stroke. However, the potential risk factors for stroke among DCM patients remain under investigated. DCM patients hospitalized from June 2011 to June 2016 were included. The cases were defined as the group of DCM patients with stroke compared with those without stroke. Clinical characteristic data were collected and compared between the two groups including demographic data, complicated diseases, echocardiography index, and laboratory parameters and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). A multivariate logistic regression analysis model adjusted by sex and age was used to explore the related risk factors for stroke in DCM patients. A total of 779 hospitalized patients with DCM were included. Of these, 55 (7.1%) had experienced a stroke. Significantly lower eGFR levels (68.03 ± 26.22 vs 79.88 ± 24.25 mL/min/1.73 m², P = .001) and larger left atrial diameters (45.32 ± 7.79 vs 43.25 ± 7.11 mm, P = .04) were found in the group of patients having DCM with stroke compared to those without stroke. When the eGFR was categorized as eGFR >60, 30<eGFR≤ 60 and eGFR ≤ 30, there were more patients with 30<eGFR≤ 60 (30.9% vs 17.7%) and eGFR≤ 30 (9.1% vs 3.3%) in the ischemic stroke group (P = 0.003). A multivariate logistic regression analysis model adjusted by sex and age showed that 30 <eGFR≤60 (odds ratio [OR]: 2.07, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [1.05-4.07], P = .035) and eGFR≤30 (OR: 4.04, 95% CI: [1.41-11.62], P = .009) were statistically associated with ischemic stroke in patients with DCM. It is concluded that decreased eGFR is significantly associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke in patients with DCM.