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Lu W, Tong Y, Zhang C, Xiang L, Xiang L, Chen C, Guo L, Shan Y, Li X, Zhao Z, Pan X, Zhao Z, Zou J. A novel visual dynamic nomogram to online predict the risk of unfavorable outcome in elderly aSAH patients after endovascular coiling: A retrospective study. Front Neurosci 2023; 16:1037895. [PMID: 36704009 PMCID: PMC9871773 DOI: 10.3389/fnins.2022.1037895] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2022] [Accepted: 12/22/2022] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality throughout the world. Dynamic nomogram to predict the prognosis of elderly aSAH patients after endovascular coiling has not been reported. Thus, we aimed to develop a clinically useful dynamic nomogram to predict the risk of 6-month unfavorable outcome in elderly aSAH patients after endovascular coiling. Methods We conducted a retrospective study including 209 elderly patients admitted to the People's Hospital of Hunan Province for aSAH from January 2016 to June 2021. The main outcome measure was 6-month unfavorable outcome (mRS ≥ 3). We used multivariable logistic regression analysis and forwarded stepwise regression to select variables to generate the nomogram. We assessed the discriminative performance using the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver-operating characteristic and the risk prediction model's calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The decision curve analysis (DCA) and the clinical impact curve (CIC) were used to measure the clinical utility of the nomogram. Results The cohort's median age was 70 (interquartile range: 68-74) years and 133 (36.4%) had unfavorable outcomes. Age, using a ventilator, white blood cell count, and complicated with cerebral infarction were predictors of 6-month unfavorable outcome. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.882 and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test showed good calibration of the nomogram (p = 0.3717). Besides, the excellent clinical utility and applicability of the nomogram had been indicated by DCA and CIC. The eventual value of unfavorable outcome risk could be calculated through the dynamic nomogram. Conclusion This study is the first visual dynamic online nomogram that accurately predicts the risk of 6-month unfavorable outcome in elderly aSAH patients after endovascular coiling. Clinicians can effectively improve interventions by taking targeted interventions based on the scores of different items on the nomogram for each variable.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Lu
- School of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China,Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - YuLan Tong
- School of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China,Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Cheng Zhang
- Department of Neurology, The First Affiliated Hospital (People’s Hospital of Hunan Province), Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China
| | - Lan Xiang
- Department of Neurology, The First Affiliated Hospital (People’s Hospital of Hunan Province), Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China
| | - Liang Xiang
- Department of Neurology, The First Affiliated Hospital (People’s Hospital of Hunan Province), Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China
| | - Chen Chen
- Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China,Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing First Hospital, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
| | - LeHeng Guo
- Department of Neurology, The First Affiliated Hospital (People’s Hospital of Hunan Province), Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China
| | - YaJie Shan
- Department of Neurology, The First Affiliated Hospital (People’s Hospital of Hunan Province), Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China
| | - XueMei Li
- Department of Neurology, The First Affiliated Hospital (People’s Hospital of Hunan Province), Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China
| | - Zheng Zhao
- Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China,Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing First Hospital, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China
| | - XiDing Pan
- Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China,Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing First Hospital, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China,XiDing Pan,
| | - ZhiHong Zhao
- Department of Neurology, The First Affiliated Hospital (People’s Hospital of Hunan Province), Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China,ZhiHong Zhao,
| | - JianJun Zou
- Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China,Department of Pharmacy, Nanjing First Hospital, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing, China,*Correspondence: JianJun Zou,
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