Risk Assessment for Tobacco Regulation

Methodological Approaches for Risk Assessment of Tobacco and Related Products

Health risk assessment of tobacco and related products (TRPs) is highly challenging due to the variety in products, even within the product class, the complex mixture of components in the emission and the variety of user behaviour. In this paper, we summarize methods that can be used to assess the health risks associated with the use of TRPs. The choice of methods to be used and the data needed are dependent on the aim. Risk assessment can be used to identify the emission components of highest health concern. Alternatively, risk assessment methods can be used to determine the absolute risk of a TRP, which is the health risk of a product, not related to other products, or to determine the relative risk of a TRP, which is the health risk of a TRP compared to, for example, a cigarette. Generally, health risk assessment can be based on the effects of the complete mixture (whole smoke) or based on the (added) effects of individual components. Data requirements are dependent on the method used, but most methods require substantial data on identity and quantity of components in emissions and on the hazards of these components. Especially for hazards, only limited data are available. Currently, due to a lack of suitable data, quantitative risk assessment methods cannot be used to inform regulation.

Nicotine Reduction in Cigarettes: Literature Review and Gap Analysis

BACKGROUND

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is considering reducing nicotine levels in cigarettes to "minimally or non-addictive levels." However, important research gaps remain, and the FDA must determine when the available research is sufficient to support moving forward.

METHODS

The authors conducted a systematic review of research articles in PubMed relating to nicotine reduction. Building on a review of risk assessment best practices, the authors also developed a risk assessment framework for tobacco regulation and used it to guide a gap analysis of nicotine reduction research.

RESULTS

The final sample consisted of 78 articles. The majority examined either nicotine dependence on very low nicotine cigarettes (VLNCs) or markers of potential health effects of using VLNCs. One-third of the identified articles reported results from four large randomized controlled trials (RCTs). While these studies report promising results and suggest that a nicotine reduction rule would be a powerful tool to reduce cigarette smoking, our gap analysis suggests that there is a need for studies that better reflect the use and availability of a wide range of tobacco/nicotine products and the potential for dual- or multi-product use.

CONCLUSION

The current body of research on nicotine reduction is weighted towards RCTs, which is appropriate for a policy that has not yet been implemented anywhere in the world. The FDA must consider a wide range of factors that may impact a product standard's public health impact, including those difficult to assess in RCTs, such as a nicotine reduction rule's impact on smoking initiation and relapse.

IMPLICATIONS

This systematic review presents a gap analysis based on a risk assessment framework to help identify remaining research priorities to inform FDA's potential product standard to reduce nicotine levels in cigarettes. Quickly addressing those gaps would support the FDA's effort to develop a nicotine reduction product standard that will be effective and withstand legal challenges.