Application of Counter-propagation Artificial Neural Networks in Prediction of Topiramate Concentration in Patients with Epilepsy

Machine Learning for Prediction of Drug Concentrations: Application and Challenges

With the advancements in algorithms and increased accessibility of multi-source data, machine learning in pharmacokinetics is gaining interest. This review summarizes studies on machine learning-based pharmacokinetics analysis up to September 2024, identified from the PubMed and IEEE Xplore databases. The main focus of this review is on the use of machine learning in predicting drug concentration. This review provides a comprehensive summary of the advances in the machine learning algorithms for pharmacokinetics analysis. Specifically, we describe the common practices in data preprocessing, the application scenarios of various algorithms, and the critical challenges that require attention. Most machine learning models show comparable performance to those of population pharmacokinetics models. Tree-based algorithms and neural networks have the most applications. Furthermore, the use of ensemble modeling techniques can improve the accuracy of these models' predictions of drug concentrations, especially the ensembles of machine learning and pharmacometrics.

Machine Learning: A New Approach for Dose Individualization

The application of machine learning (ML) has shown promising results in precision medicine due to its exceptional performance in dealing with complex multidimensional data. However, using ML for individualized dosing of medicines is still in its early stage, meriting further exploration. A systematic review of study designs and modeling details of using ML for individualized dosing of different drugs was performed. We have summarized the status of the study populations, predictive targets, and data sources for ML modeling, the selection of ML algorithms and features, and the evaluation and validation of their predictive performance. We also used the Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) to assess the risk of bias of included studies. Currently, ML can be used for both a priori and a posteriori dose selection and optimization, and it can also assist the implementation of therapeutic drug monitoring. However, studies are mainly focused on drugs with narrow therapeutic windows, predominantly immunosuppressants (N = 23, 35.9%) and anti-infectives (N = 21, 32.8%), and there is currently only very limited attention for special populations, such as children (N = 22, 34.4%). Most studies showed poor methodological quality and a high risk of bias. The lack of external validation and clinical utility evaluation currently limits the further clinical implementation of ML for dose individualization. We therefore have proposed several ways to improve the clinical relevance of the studies and facilitate the translation of ML models into clinical practice.

Predicting quetiapine dose in patients with depression using machine learning techniques based on real-world evidence

BACKGROUND

Being one of the most widespread, pervasive, and troublesome illnesses in the world, depression causes dysfunction in various spheres of individual and social life. Regrettably, despite obtaining evidence-based antidepressant medication, up to 70% of people are going to continue to experience troublesome symptoms. Quetiapine, as one of the most commonly prescribed antipsychotic medication worldwide, has been reported as an effective augmentation strategy to antidepressants. The right quetiapine dose and personalized quetiapine treatment are frequently challenging for clinicians. This study aimed to identify important influencing variables for quetiapine dose by maximizing the use of data from real world, and develop a predictive model of quetiapine dose through machine learning techniques to support selections for treatment regimens.

METHODS

The study comprised 308 depressed patients who were medicated with quetiapine and hospitalized in the First Hospital of Hebei Medical University, from November 1, 2019, to August 31, 2022. To identify the important variables influencing the dose of quetiapine, a univariate analysis was applied. The prediction abilities of nine machine learning models (XGBoost, LightGBM, RF, GBDT, SVM, LR, ANN, DT) were compared. Algorithm with the optimal model performance was chosen to develop the prediction model.

RESULTS

Four predictors were selected from 38 variables by the univariate analysis (p < 0.05), including quetiapine TDM value, age, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, and total bile acid. Ultimately, the XGBoost algorithm was used to create a prediction model for quetiapine dose that had the greatest predictive performance (accuracy = 0.69) out of nine models. In the testing cohort (62 cases), a total of 43 cases were correctly predicted of the quetiapine dose regimen. In dose subgroup analysis, AUROC for patients with daily dose of 100 mg, 200 mg, 300 mg and 400 mg were 0.99, 0.75, 0.93 and 0.86, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In this work, machine learning techniques are used for the first time to estimate the dose of quetiapine for patients with depression, which is valuable for the clinical drug recommendations.

A framework for integrating artificial intelligence for clinical care with continuous therapeutic monitoring

The complex relationships between continuously monitored health signals and therapeutic regimens can be modelled via machine learning. However, the clinical implementation of the models will require changes to clinical workflows. Here we outline ClinAIOps ('clinical artificial-intelligence operations'), a framework that integrates continuous therapeutic monitoring and the development of artificial intelligence (AI) for clinical care. ClinAIOps leverages three feedback loops to enable the patient to make treatment adjustments using AI outputs, the clinician to oversee patient progress with AI assistance, and the AI developer to receive continuous feedback from both the patient and the clinician. We lay out the central challenges and opportunities in the deployment of ClinAIOps by means of examples of its application in the management of blood pressure, diabetes and Parkinson's disease. By enabling more frequent and accurate measurements of a patient's health and more timely adjustments to their treatment, ClinAIOps may substantially improve patient outcomes.

Predicting busulfan exposure in patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation using machine learning techniques

PURPOSE

This study aimed to establish an optimal model to predict the busulfan (BU) area under the curve at steady state (AUCss) by using machine learning (ML).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Seventy-nine adult patients (age ≥18 years) who received BU intravenously and underwent therapeutic drug monitoring from 2013 to 2021 at Fujian Medical University Union Hospital were enrolled in this retrospective study. The whole dataset was divided into a training group and test group at the ratio of 8:2. BU AUCss were considered as the target variable. Nine different ML algorithms and one population pharmacokinetic (pop PK) model were developed and validated, and their predictive performance was compared.

RESULTS

All ML models were superior to the pop PK model (R2 = 0.751, MSE = 0.722, 14 and RMSE = 0.830) in model fitting and had better predictive accuracy. The ML model of BU AUCss established through support vector regression (SVR) and gradient boosted regression trees (GBRT) had the best predictive ability (R2 = 0.953 and 0.953, MSE = 0.323 and 0.326, and RMSE = 0.423 and 0.425).

CONCLUSION

All the ML models can potentially be used to estimate BU AUCss with the aim of facilitating rational use of BU on the individualized level, especially models built by SVR and GBRT algorithms.

Machine learning advances the integration of covariates in population pharmacokinetic models: Valproic acid as an example

Background and Aim: Many studies associated with the combination of machine learning (ML) and pharmacometrics have appeared in recent years. ML can be used as an initial step for fast screening of covariates in population pharmacokinetic (popPK) models. The present study aimed to integrate covariates derived from different popPK models using ML.

Methods: Two published popPK models of valproic acid (VPA) in Chinese epileptic patients were used, where the population parameters were influenced by some covariates. Based on the covariates and a one-compartment model that describes the pharmacokinetics of VPA, a dataset was constructed using Monte Carlo simulation, to develop an XGBoost model to estimate the steady-state concentrations (Css) of VPA. We utilized SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values to interpret the prediction model, and calculated estimates of VPA exposure in four assumed scenarios involving different combinations of CYP2C19 genotypes and co-administered antiepileptic drugs. To develop an easy-to-use model in the clinic, we built a simplified model by using CYP2C19 genotypes and some noninvasive clinical parameters, and omitting several features that were infrequently measured or whose clinically available values were inaccurate, and verified it on our independent external dataset.

Results: After data preprocessing, the finally generated combined dataset was divided into a derivation cohort and a validation cohort (8:2). The XGBoost model was developed in the derivation cohort and yielded excellent performance in the validation cohort with a mean absolute error of 2.4 mg/L, root-mean-squared error of 3.3 mg/L, mean relative error of 0%, and percentages within ±20% of actual values of 98.85%. The SHAP analysis revealed that daily dose, time, CYP2C19*2 and/or *3 variants, albumin, body weight, single dose, and CYP2C19*1*1 genotype were the top seven confounding factors influencing the Css of VPA. Under the simulated dosage regimen of 500 mg/bid, the VPA exposure in patients who had CYP2C19*2 and/or *3 variants and no carbamazepine, phenytoin, or phenobarbital treatment, was approximately 1.74-fold compared to those with CYP2C19*1/*1 genotype and co-administered carbamazepine + phenytoin + phenobarbital. The feasibility of the simplified model was fully illustrated by its performance in our external dataset.

Conclusion: This study highlighted the bridging role of ML in big data and pharmacometrics, by integrating covariates derived from different popPK models.

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BACKGROUND

Artificial intelligence (AI) can be described as an advanced technology in which machines display a certain form of intelligence.

OBJECTIVES

The primary objective was to perform a narrative review of studies evaluating the feasibility and impact of AI in pharmacy. The secondary objective was to create a mind map of AI in health care.

DATA SOURCES

Four databases were consulted: PubMed, Medline, Embase, and CINAHL.

STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION

Four search strategies were developed. Initial selection of articles was based on their titles and abstracts; the full texts were then evaluated by a research assistant, with review by a pharmacist. Articles were included if they described or evaluated the feasibility or impact of AI in pharmacy.

DATA SYNTHESIS

A total of 362 articles were identified by the literature review, of which 18 met the inclusion criteria. The studies were mainly conducted in the United States (72%, 13/18). The article topics were, in decreasing order, prediction of response to treatments and adverse effects (33%, 6/18), patient prioritization (28%, 5/18), treatment adherence (22%, 4/18), validation of prescriptions and electronic prescription (17%, 3/18), and other themes (e.g., diagnosis, costs, insurance, and verification of syringe volume).

CONCLUSIONS

This narrative review highlighted 18 studies evaluating the feasibility and impact of AI in pharmacy. The studies used various methodologies in different settings, both retail pharmacies and hospital pharmacies. It is still too soon to predict the implications of AI for pharmacy, but these studies emphasize the importance of attention in this area.

Pharmacokinetics of Eltrombopag in Healthy Chinese Subjects and Effect of Sex and Genetic Polymorphism on its Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Variability

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Eltrombopag is the first oral, small-molecule, non-peptide thrombopoietin receptor agonist for the treatment of idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura. This study investigated the pharmacokinetics of eltrombopag in healthy Chinese subjects and evaluated the effect of sex and genetic polymorphisms on its variability.

METHODS

Forty-eight healthy subjects were administered a single dose of eltrombopag (25 mg). Plasma concentrations of eltrombopag were determined using a validated liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method, and platelet counts were determined by blood tests. CYP1A2 rs762551, CYP2C8*3 rs10509681, CYP2C8*3 rs11572080, UGT1A1 rs887829, UGT1A3 rs3806596, and BCRP rs2231142 polymorphisms were genotyped by Sanger sequencing. A back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) model was constructed to predict pharmacokinetics based on physiological factors and genetic polymorphism data.

RESULTS

Compared with male subjects, female subjects who received a single 25-mg dose of eltrombopag exhibited a significantly increased mean maximum plasma concentration (C_max) and significantly decreased apparent clearance. Additionally, CYP1A2 rs762551 C>A single nucleotide polymorphism influenced distribution and elimination. C-allele carriers exhibited 30% higher systemic exposure and 20% lower apparent clearance compared with homozygous A-allele carriers. Mean percentage increases in platelet counts from baseline to Day 5 were 9.38% and 17.06% in male and female subjects, respectively. The BP-ANN model had a high goodness-of-fit index and good coherence between predicted and measured concentrations (R = 0.98979).

CONCLUSION

Sex and CYP1A2 rs762551 C>A were associated with the pharmacokinetic variability of eltrombopag in healthy Chinese subjects. Females exhibited a better platelet-elevating effect compared with males administered the same dosage. The developed BP-ANN model based on physiological factors and genetic polymorphism data could be promising for applications in pharmacokinetic studies.

TRIAL REGISTRATIONS

https://www.Chinadrugtrials.org.cn CTR20190898.

A machine learning approach to personalized dose adjustment of lamotrigine using noninvasive clinical parameters

The pharmacokinetic variability of lamotrigine (LTG) plays a significant role in its dosing requirements. Our goal here was to use noninvasive clinical parameters to predict the dose-adjusted concentrations (C/D ratio) of LTG based on machine learning (ML) algorithms. A total of 1141 therapeutic drug-monitoring measurements were used, 80% of which were randomly selected as the "derivation cohort" to develop the prediction algorithm, and the remaining 20% constituted the "validation cohort" to test the finally selected model. Fifteen ML models were optimized and evaluated by tenfold cross-validation on the "derivation cohort,” and were filtered by the mean absolute error (MAE). On the whole, the nonlinear models outperformed the linear models. The extra-trees’ regression algorithm delivered good performance, and was chosen to establish the predictive model. The important features were then analyzed and parameters of the model adjusted to develop the best prediction model, which accurately described the C/D ratio of LTG, especially in the intermediate-to-high range (≥ 22.1 μg mL⁻¹ g⁻¹ day), as illustrated by a minimal bias (mean relative error (%) =  + 3%), good precision (MAE = 8.7 μg mL⁻¹ g⁻¹ day), and a high percentage of predictions within ± 20% of the empirical values (60.47%). This is the first study, to the best of our knowledge, to use ML algorithms to predict the C/D ratio of LTG. The results here can help clinicians adjust doses of LTG administered to patients to minimize adverse reactions.

Effect of Genetic Polymorphisms on the Pharmacokinetics of Deferasirox in Healthy Chinese Subjects and an Artificial Neural Networks Model for Pharmacokinetic Prediction

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Deferasirox is an oral iron chelator used to reduce iron levels in iron-overloaded patients with transfusion-dependent anemia or non-transfusion-dependent thalassemia. This study investigated the effects of genetic polymorphisms on the pharmacokinetics of deferasirox in healthy Chinese subjects and constructed a pharmacokinetic prediction model based on physiologic factors and genetic polymorphism data.

METHODS

Twenty-eight subjects were enrolled in a randomized, open-label, two-period crossover study, and they received a single dose of one of two formulations of deferasirox (20 mg/kg) with a 7-day washout interval between the two periods. The plasma defersirox concentration was determined using a validated liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method, and pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated using the noncompartmental method. The polymorphisms of uridine diphosphate glucuronosyltransferase 1A1 (UGT1A1), UGT1A3, multidrug resistance protein 2 (MRP2), cytochrome P450 1A1 (CYP1A1), and breast cancer resistance protein 1 (BCRP1) were genotyped using Sanger sequencing. A back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) model was used to predict the pharmacokinetics.

RESULTS

The UGT1A1 rs887829 C > T single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) significantly influenced the area under the plasma concentration-time curve and the terminal half-life. Neither the MRP2 rs2273697 G > A SNP nor BCRP1 rs2231142 G > T SNP altered the absorption, disposition, and excretion of the drug. The BP-ANN model had a high goodness-of-fit index and good coherence between the predicted and measured concentrations (R² = 0.921).

CONCLUSION

Metabolic enzyme-related genetic polymorphisms were more strongly associated with the pharmacokinetics of deferasirox than membrane transporter-related genetic polymorphisms in the Chinese population.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

www.Chinadrugtrials.org.cn CTR20191164.

Use of artificial neural networks for analysis of the factors affecting particle size in mebudipine nanoemulsion

In this study, a nanoemulsion containing mebudipine [composed of ethyl oleate (oil phase), Tween 80 (T80), Span 80 (S80) (surfactants), polyethylene glycol 400, ethanol (cosurfactants), and deionized water] was prepared with the aim of improving its bioavailability for an effective antihypertensive therapy. Particle size of the formulation was measured by dynamic light scattering. Then, artificial neural networks were used in identifying factors that influence the particle size of the nanoemulsion. Three variables, namely, amount of surfactant system (T80 + S80), amount of polyethylene glycol, and amount of ethanol as cosurfactants, were considered as input values and the particle size was used as output. The developed model showed that all the three inputs had some degrees of effect on particles size: increasing the value of each input decreased the size. Furthermore, amount of surfactant was found to be the dominant factor in controlling the final particle size of nanoemulsion. Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma.