Understanding the Effects of China's Agro-Environmental Policies on Rural Households' Labor and Land Allocation with a Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Model

Ecological aspiration and the income of farmers aroused by Grain for Green Project

For farmers, the more fragile the state of the ecology becomes, the more their awareness of the need for environmental protection grows. China’s Grain for Green Project (G.G.P.) policy of returning farmland to forests and grassland, as an external shock to the environment, has sparked people’s ecological aspirations. Many people have noticed the phenomenon of ecosystem degradation and overlapping poverty. Analyzing the environmental and income changes brought about by the G.G.P., and this study considers farmers’ self-selection problems due to their lack of subjective thinking regarding this initiative. Our study aims to fill this gap by using a forest–grass model to assess the level of farmers’ ecological aspirations in ecologically vulnerable areas of Xinjiang, China. This article is based on aspiration theory and a theoretical model assessing the economic impact of ecological aspiration on the G.G.P. in China. The results show that farmers’ ecological aspirations can increase their enthusiasm to participate in the G.G.P. Under counterfactual conditions, participation in the G.G.P. initially reduces farmers’ total income to a certain extent; however, in the long run, it can significantly increase the total income of farmers. When the intermediary effect is used to analyze the economic effect of ecological aspiration on returning farmland to forest, it is found that farmers’ ecological aspirations affect household income by influencing income expectations. Our findings have essential practical implications and provide an important reference for consolidating poverty alleviation efforts and effectively promoting rural revitalization. In addition, the results suggest a way to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and it is necessary for building environmental-friendly regions.

Considering Farmers' Heterogeneity to Payment Ecosystem Services Participation: A Choice Experiment and Agent-Based Model Analysis in Xin'an River Basin, China

The concept of watershed ecological compensation is one payment for ecosystem services (PES) program that incentivizes stakeholders undertake environmental conservation activities that improve the provision of ecosystem services. Defining the heterogeneity of farmers' willingness to participate in watershed ecological compensation is critically important for fully understanding stakeholders' demands. Accordingly, we designed a choice experiment survey to analyze the heterogeneity of policy preferences and willingness to receive compensation between upstream and midstream farmers in Xin'an River basin, China. Moreover, we simulated the impact of farmers' social capitals' heterogeneity with an agent-based model. The results show that there are significant differences in the preferences of agricultural waste recycling rate and agricultural water quality between farmers in the upstream and midstream. The total willingness of farmers in the upstream and midstream to participate in ecological compensation are RMB 149.88 (USD 22.54)/month and RMB 57.40 yuan (USD 8.63)/month, respectively. Social network size has a negative effect on farmers' willingness to participate the programs. Our findings suggest that the characteristics of farmers' influence their willingness to participate in the PES program. The results of this research can be used to improve PES management policies in the future, as well as to support sustainable environmental development and rural revitalization.