Prognostic nomogram for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

Prognostic value of genome-wide methylation in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

AIM

Methylation status of genome varies between pre-acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (pre-ACHBLF), acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF), and chronic hepatitis B patients. This study aimed to find better prognostic indicators for acute-on-chronic liver failure.

METHODS

The level of global genome methylation in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) was detected. The overall genome methylation rate was determined using MethylFlash™ Methylated DNA Quantification Kit(Colorimetric). DNMT activity were measured using DNA Methyltransferase Activity/Inhibition Assay Kit. Gene expression of DNA methyltransferases (DNMT)，methyl-CpG-binding domain (MBD) were detected by qRT-PCR.

RESULTS

The global genome methylation level in ACHBLF group was significantly higher than that in chronic hepatitis B group (P<0.001). There was also obvious difference of the global genome methylation level between pre-ACHBLF group and CHB group (P<0.001). Meanwhile, the activity of DNMT in ACHBLF group was significantly higher than that in chronic hepatitis B group (P<0.001). The mRNA expression level of DNMT1 was higher than that in pre-ACHBLF group (P<0.01) and CHB group (PP<0.001). The mRNA expression level of MBD1 in ACHBLF group was also higher than that in CHB group (P<0.001) and healthy controls (HCs) (P<0.01). And the mRNA expression level of MBD3 and MBD4 in ACHBLF, pre-ACHBLF and CHB group were lower than that in HCs (P<0.001). Meanwhile we observed an opposite change in the mRNA expression level of MECP2. The ROC curve suggested that global genome methylation level was a better prognostic predictor than MELD score in ACHBLF (AUC 0.950, SE 0.0237, 95%CI 0.874-0.986 VS AUC 0.863, SE 0.0439, 95%CI 0.765-0.931, P=0.0429).

CONCLUSIONS

Genome methylation level can be a good biomarker in predicting the severity and prognosis of ACHBLF.

Influence of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease on the prognosis of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

OBJECTIVES

Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) has clinical relevance in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We investigated the association between MAFLD and prognosis in patients with ACLF.

METHODS

We included patients with ACLF with available clinical data who visited our hospital for nearly 9 years. We compared the prognosis of patients in the different subgroups of ACLF and predicted the incidence of adverse outcomes. Moreover, a new model based on MAFLD was established.

RESULTS

Among 339 participants, 75 had MAFLD. The prognosis of patients with ACLF was significantly correlated with MAFLD. Patients with ACLF with concomitant MAFLD tended to have a lower cumulative survival rate (p = 0.026) and a higher incidence of hepatorenal syndrome (9.33% versus 3.40%, p = 0.033) than those without MAFLD. We developed an TIM2 model and the area under the ROC curve of the new model for 30-day and 60-day mortality (0.759 and 0.748) was higher than other predictive methods.

CONCLUSION

The presence of MAFLD in patients with HBV-related ACLF was associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality. Moreover, The TIM2 model is a high-performance prognostic score for HBV-related ACLF.

Acute on chronic liver failure: prognostic models and artificial intelligence applications

Critically ill patients presenting with acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) represent a particularly vulnerable population due to various considerations surrounding the syndrome definition, lack of robust prospective evaluation of outcomes, and allocation of resources such as organs for transplantation. Ninety-day mortality related to ACLF is high and patients who do leave the hospital are frequently readmitted. Artificial intelligence (AI), which encompasses various classical and modern machine learning techniques, natural language processing, and other methods of predictive, prognostic, probabilistic, and simulation modeling, has emerged as an effective tool in various areas of healthcare. These methods are now being leveraged to potentially minimize physician and provider cognitive load and impact both short-term and long-term patient outcomes. However, the enthusiasm is tempered by ethical considerations and a current lack of proven benefits. In addition to prognostic applications, AI models can likely help improve the understanding of various mechanisms of morbidity and mortality in ACLF. Their overall impact on patient-centered outcomes and countless other aspects of patient care remains unclear. In this review, we discuss various AI approaches being utilized in healthcare and discuss the recent and expected future impact of AI on patients with ACLF through prognostic modeling and AI-based approaches.

A novel prognostic nomogram for older patients with acute-on-chronic liver diseases (AoCLD): a nationwide, multicentre, prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

the incidence of acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) is increasing.

OBJECTIVE

to investigate the clinical features and risk factors of AoCLD and construct an effective prognostic nomogram model for older patients with AoCLD.

METHODS

data from 3,970 patients included in the CATCH-LIFE study were used, including 2,600 and 1,370 patients in the training and validation sets, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify predictive risk factors in older individuals, and an easy-to-use nomogram was established. Performance was assessed using area under the curve, calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

of the 3,949 patients with AoCLD, 809 were older with a higher proportion of autoimmune-related abnormalities, hepatitis C viral infection and schistosomiasis. In the older patient group, the incidence of cirrhosis, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), infection, ascites and gastrointestinal bleeding; neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), aspartate-to-alanine transaminase ratio (AST/ALT), creatinine and blood urea nitrogen levels were higher, whereas incidence of acute-on-chronic liver failure, white blood cell, platelet and haemoglobin levels; albumin, total bilirubin (TB), AST and ALT levels; international normalised ratio (INR), estimated glomerular filtration rate and blood potassium levels were lower than in the younger group. The final nomogram was developed based on the multivariate Cox analysis in training cohort using six risk factors: ascites, HE grades, NLR, TB, INR and AST/ALT. Liver transplantation-free mortality predictions were comparable between the training and validation sets. DCA showed higher net benefit for the nomograph than the treat-all or treat-none strategies, with wider threshold probabilities ranges.

CONCLUSIONS

our analysis will assist clinical predictions and prognoses in older patients with AoCLD.

Research progress on short-term prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure

INTRODUCTION

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinical syndrome characterized as a severe condition with rapid progression, poor therapeutic response and poor prognosis. Early and timely evaluation of the prognosis is helpful for providing appropriate clinical intervention and prolonging patient survival.

AREAS COVERED

Currently, there are no specific dynamic and comprehensive approaches to assess the prognosis of patients with ACLF. This article reviews the progress in evaluating the short-term prognosis of ACLF to provide future directions for more dynamic prospective large-scale multicenter studies and a basis for individualized and precise treatment for ACLF patients. We searched PubMed and Web of Science with the term 'acute on chronic liver failure' and 'prognosis.' There was no date or language restriction, and our final search was on 26 October 2022.

EXPERT OPINION

ACLF is a dynamic process, and the best prognostic marker is the clinical evolution of organ failure over time. New prognostic markers are developing not only in the fields of genetics and histology but also toward diversification combined with imaging. Determining which patients will benefit from continued advanced life support is a formidable challenge, and accurate short-term prognostic assessments of ACLF are a good approach to addressing this issue.

Gasdermin D Inhibitor Necrosulfonamide Alleviates Lipopolysaccharide/D-galactosamine-induced Acute Liver Failure in Mice

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Acute liver failure (ALF) is associated with high mortality. Gasdermin D (GSDMD) is the executioner of pyroptosis and is involved in the pathophysiology of immune dysregulation This study investigated the role of the GSDMD inhibitor necrosulfonamide (NSA) in ALF.

METHODS

An ALF model was established by lipopolysaccharide/D-galactosamine challenge in C57BL/6J mice. Mice were divided into four groups: normal controls (control group), ALF group (ALF group), dimethyl sulfoxide group (DMSO group), and NSA intervention group (NSA group). Survival was monitored, liver damage was determined by hematoxylin and eosin staining, and serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT). Underlying mechanisms were explored by quantitative real-time PCR, western blotting, and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays.

RESULTS

Pyroptosis was activated in ALF model mice. Mice treated with GSDMD inhibitor NSA developed less severe liver failure. NSA reduced the expression of GSDMD, NLRP3, cleaved caspase-1, cleaved caspase-11, and secretion of interleukin-1 beta in ALF mice model.

CONCLUSIONS

Pyroptosis was activated in ALF. NSA alleviated ALF via the pyroptosis pathway.

Hypomethylation of thymosin β4 promoter is associated with glucocorticoid therapy in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B-induced liver failure

BACKGROUND

We aimed to determine whether the methylation status of thymosin β4 (Tβ4) promoter reflects the severity of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) and whether glucocorticoids affect this status.

METHODS

Fifty-six patients with ACHBLF, 45 with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and 32 healthy controls (HCs), were retrospectively enrolled. Methylation-specific PCR and real-time PCR were used to detect Tβ4 methylation frequency and mRNA level. The expression of Tβ4 was measured before and after glucocorticoid treatment in patients with ACHBLF. Clinical and laboratory parameters were obtained.

RESULTS

Tβ4 mRNA expression of patients with ACHBLF was lower than in patients with CHB or HCs, but the methylation frequency was higher. Tβ4 promoter methylation frequency was correlated with serum total bilirubin, prothrombin activity and model for end-stage liver disease score. Moreover, Tβ4 promoter methylation frequency decreased and demethylation occurred during glucocorticoid therapy. After glucocorticoid therapy, Tβ4 mRNA expression and liver function were better in patients with low levels of methylation than in those with higher levels. After 90 d, the survival of patients with low levels of methylation was significantly higher than those with high levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with ACHBLF who have low levels of Tβ4 methylation may show a more favorable response to glucocorticoid treatment.

The NLRP3 inflammasome mediates liver failure by activating procaspase-1 and pro-IL-1 β and regulating downstream CD40-CD40L signaling

Objectives

In this prospective case–control study, we explored the regulatory roles of the NLRP3 inflammasome in hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF).

Methods

Thirty patients with HBV-ACLF, 30 patients with chronic hepatitis B, and 30 healthy individuals were enrolled. Real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction was used to assess mRNA levels in peripheral blood mononuclear cells and serum protein levels were assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.

Results

Serum levels of alanine aminotransferase, asparagine aminotransferase, total bilirubin, and direct bilirubin in patients with HBV-ACLF were increased. Transcript levels of NLRP3 and ASC and protein levels of interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-18, and sCD40L were elevated in patients with HBV-ACLF. Expression of the NLRP3 inflammasome signaling pathway components procaspase-1 and pro-IL-1β was elevated in patients with HBV-ACLF.

Conclusions

This prospective case-control study demonstrated that significant activation of the NLRP3 inflammasome occurs in patients with HBV-ACLF. The activated NLRP3 inflammasome mediated liver failure by stimulating procaspase-1 and pro-IL-1 β and regulating downstream CD40-CD40L signaling.

Effect of type 2 diabetic mellitus in the prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure patients in China

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients have a high short-term mortality rate, and the severity evaluation of ACLF is necessary for prognostication. Therefore, it was meaningful to evaluate the association between type 2 diabetic mellitus (DM) and ACLF and further explore the feasibility of using DM as a prognostic indicator in ACLF patients. The association between type 2 DM and the prognosis of patients with severe liver disease remains unclear.

AIM

To examine the effect of type 2 DM on the prognosis of patients with ACLF.

METHODS

Clinical data from 222 ACLF patients were collected and analyzed. The patients were categorized into two groups depending on whether they had DM or not, and the clinical data of ACLF patients were measured within 48 h after admission. Complications of ACLF were documented during treatment, such as hepatic encephalopathy, hepatorenal syndrome, acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage, and spontaneous peritonitis (SBP). Values of laboratory parameters, complication rates, and hospital mortality rates were compared between two groups.

RESULTS

Among 222 ACLF patients, 38 cases were categorized into DM groups, the mean age was 56.32 years and 73.68% were male. The prognosis of ACLF patients was significantly correlated with DM in univariate [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) =1.5-3.7, P < 0.001] and multivariable analysis (HR = 3.17, 95%CI =1.82-5.523, P < 0.001). The incident of SBP (34.21% vs 13.59%, P = 0.038) and other infections like lung, urinary, blood, and cholecyst (44.74% vs 28.26%, P = 0.046) were higher in DM patients than non-DM counterparts. In addition, the ACLF patients with DM tended to have a high mortality rate (P < 0.001). Cumulative survival time was also significantly shorter in the ACLF patients with DM than non-DM.

CONCLUSION

A significant association between DM and the prognosis of ACLF patients was found in China. The ACLF patients with DM had higher incidence of hospital mortality and infection than those without DM.

Derivation and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting 90-Day Survival in Patients With HBV-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Background: Conventional prognostic models do not fully reflect the severity of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). This study aimed to establish an effective and convenient nomogram for patients with HBV-related ACLF. Methods: A nomogram was developed based on a retrospective cohort of 1,353 patients treated at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from January 2010 to June 2016. The predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability of the nomogram were determined by a concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve, and were compared with current scoring systems. The results were validated using an independent retrospective cohort of 669 patients consecutively treated at the same institution from July 2016 to March 2018. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03992898). Results: Multivariable analysis of the derivation cohort found that independent predictors of 90-day survival were age, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin (Hb), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBil), international normalized ratio, serum creatinine (Cr), alpha fetoprotein (AFP), serum sodium (Na), hepatic encephalopathy (HE), pre-existing chronic liver disease(PreLD), and HBV DNA load. All factors were included in the nomogram. The nomogram calibration curve for the probability of 90-day survival indicated that nomogram-based predictions were in good agreement with actual observations. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.790, which was statistically significantly greater than those for the current scoring systems in the derivation cohort (P < 0.001). The results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Conclusions: The proposed nomogram is more accurate in predicting the 90-day survival of patients with HBV-related ACLF than current commonly used methods.

Individual mortality risk predictive system of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure based on a random survival forest model

Background:

The basis of individualized treatment should be individualized mortality risk predictive information. The present study aimed to develop an online individual mortality risk predictive tool for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients based on a random survival forest (RSF) algorithm.

Methods:

The current study retrospectively enrolled ACLF patients from the Department of Infectious Diseases of The First People's Hospital of Foshan, Shunde Hospital of Southern Medical University, and Jiangmen Central Hospital. Two hundred seventy-six consecutive ACLF patients were included in the present study as a model cohort (n = 276). Then the current study constructed a validation cohort by drawing patients from the model dataset based on the resampling method (n = 276). The RSF algorithm was used to develop an individual prognostic model for ACLF patients. The Brier score was used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of prognostic models. The weighted mean rank estimation method was used to compare the differences between the areas under the time-dependent ROC curves (AUROCs) of prognostic models.

Results:

Multivariate Cox regression identified hepatic encephalopathy (HE), age, serum sodium level, acute kidney injury (AKI), red cell distribution width (RDW), and international normalization index (INR) as independent risk factors for ACLF patients. A simplified RSF model was developed based on these previous risk factors. The AUROCs for predicting 3-, 6-, and 12-month mortality were 0.916, 0.916, and 0.905 for the RSF model and 0.872, 0.866, and 0.848 for the Cox model in the model cohort, respectively. The Brier scores were 0.119, 0.119, and 0.128 for the RSF model and 0.138, 0.146, and 0.156 for the Cox model, respectively. The nonparametric comparison suggested that the RSF model was superior to the Cox model for predicting the prognosis of ACLF patients.

Conclusions:

The current study developed a novel online individual mortality risk predictive tool that could predict individual mortality risk predictive curves for individual patients. Additionally, the current online individual mortality risk predictive tool could further provide predicted mortality percentages and 95% confidence intervals at user-defined time points.

Associations between body mass index and mortality in acute-on-chronic liver failure patients

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

The association between the level of body mass index (BMI) and the mortality of patients with critical liver disease remains unclear. This study aimed to examine the association between BMI and hospital mortality of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

METHODS

Clinical data from 146 ACLF patients were collected and analyzed. BMI was categorized into three groups: lower BMI (<18.5kg/m²), normal BMI (18.5-24.9kg/m²), and overweight (25.0-32.0kg/m²). BMI and laboratory parameters were measured one day before, or on the day of the start of the treatment. Values of BMI and laboratory parameters were compared between survivors and non-survivors, and then hospital mortality rates were compared among patients with different BMI levels.

RESULTS

The prognosis of ACLF patients was significantly correlated with international normalized ratio (INR), albumin and BMI. The ACLF patients with low albumin level and high INR values tend to have a high mortality rate. Also, survival time was significantly shorter in the ACLF patients with lower BMI, while patients with normal and overweight values had longer survival time.

CONCLUSIONS

A graded association between BMI and hospital mortality with a strong significant trend was found in ACLF patients in China.

Artificial neural network-based models used for predicting 28- and 90-day mortality of patients with hepatitis B-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background

This study aimed to develop prognostic models for predicting 28- and 90-day mortality rates of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) through artificial neural network (ANN) systems.

Methods

Six hundred and eight-four cases of consecutive HBV-ACLF patients were retrospectively reviewed. Four hundred and twenty-three cases were used for training and constructing ANN models, and the remaining 261 cases were for validating the established models. Predictors associated with mortality were determined by univariate analysis and were then included in ANN models for predicting prognosis of mortality. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to evaluate the predictive performance of the ANN models in comparison with various current prognostic models.

Results

Variables with statistically significant difference or important clinical characteristics were input in the ANN training process, and eight independent risk factors, including age, hepatic encephalopathy, serum sodium, prothrombin activity, γ-glutamyltransferase, hepatitis B e antigen, alkaline phosphatase and total bilirubin, were eventually used to establish ANN models. For 28-day mortality in the training cohort, the model’s predictive accuracy (AUR 0.948, 95% CI 0.925–0.970) was significantly higher than that of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), Chronic Liver Failure-ACLF (CLIF-ACLF), and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) (all p < 0.001). In the validation cohorts the predictive accuracy of ANN model (AUR 0.748, 95% CI: 0.673–0.822) was significantly higher than that of MELD (p = 0.0099) and insignificantly higher than that of MELD-Na, CTP and CLIF-ACLF (p > 0.05). For 90-day mortality in the training cohort, the model’s predictive accuracy (AUR 0.913, 95% CI 0.887–0.938) was significantly higher than that of MELD, MELD-Na, CTP and CLIF-ACLF (all p < 0.001). In the validation cohorts, the prediction accuracy of the ANN model (AUR 0.754, 95% CI: 0.697–0.812 was significantly higher than that of MELD (p = 0.019) and insignificantly higher than MELD-Na, CTP and CLIF-ACLF (p > 0.05).

Conclusions

The established ANN models can more accurately predict short-term mortality risk in patients with HBV- ACLF.

The main content has been postered as an abstract at the AASLD Hepatology Conference (10.1002/hep.30257).

Expression and Clinical Significance of Decoy Receptor 3 in Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

AIMS

To explore the expression level and clinical significance of decoy receptor 3 (DcR3) in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

METHODS

Serum DcR3 levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in 76 patients with ACLF and 41 non-ACLF patients with chronic liver disease. Blood routine and liver functions were accessed for their correlations with DcR3.

RESULTS

Serum DcR3 in ACLF patients was significantly higher than that in non-ACLF patients. It was positively correlated with neutrophilic granulocyte, aspartate aminotransferase, prothrombin time, and international standardized ratio, but negatively correlated with platelet and serum albumin. At the early stage, the level of DcR3 was not significantly different between the survival and nonsurvival group of ACLF. However, at the late stage, DcR3 increased in nonsurvival and gradually decreased in survivals. The baseline DcR3 could not sufficiently predict the outcome of ACLF, while the change of DcR3 within the first week displayed a better predictive value than model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score.

CONCLUSIONS

DcR3 was highly expressed in patients with ACLF and correlated with several clinical indices. Dynamic change of DcR3 might predict the prognosis of ACLF.

Glucocorticoid Regulates NLRP3 in Acute-On-Chronic Hepatitis B Liver Failure

Acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) refers to the acute deterioration of liver function during chronic hepatitis B virus infection, and is associated with high mortality, with rapid progression to death. Nucleotide-binding oligomerisation domain-like receptors (NLRs) Family Pyrin Domain Containing 3(NLRP3) inflammasome contributed to the pathogenesis of D-galactosamine and lipopolysaccharide-induced acute liver failure. However, the profile of NLRP3 in patients with ACHBLF has not been demonstrated. This study was therefore conducted to investigate the expression of NLRP3 in patients with ACHBLF and identify the effect of glucocorticoid on NLRP3. We recruited 70 patients with ACHBLF undergoing glucocorticoid treatment for 28 days, 30 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), and 24 healthy controls (HCs) in this study. The relative messenger RNA (mRNA) level of NLRP3 and related genes were measured by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, the plasma levels of interleukin-1β (IL-1β) and interleukin-18 (IL-18) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The mRNA level of NLRP3 was significantly higher in patients with ACHBLF than in patients with CHB as well as HCs (P<0.05). The plasma levels of IL-1β and IL-18 in patients with ACHBLF were significantly higher than in patients with CHB and HCs (P<0.05). The relative mRNA level of NLRP3 in surviving patients decreased significantly compared with that in patients who did not survive after glucocorticoid treatment (P<0.05). In conclusion, NLRP3 increased in patients with ACHBLF. Glucocorticoid could downregulate the expression of NLRP3 in surviving patients with ACHBLF.

Alpha-Fetoprotein as a Predictive Marker for Patients with Hepatitis B-Related Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The value of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBACLF) is not fully understood. The present study aimed to evaluate the prognostic effect of AFP on the prediction of HBACLF outcomes.

METHODS

We investigated a cohort of patients with HBACLF admitted from January 2013 to May 2017. The endpoint of followup was 180 days, death, or liver transplantation. AFP concentrations were estimated on admission. To make statistical comparisons, we used chi-squared test, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, survivorship curve analysis, and Cox proportional-hazards model.

RESULTS

A total of 92 patients (81.5% male, median age of 46 years) were included. Overall survival rate within 180 days was 43.48%, and the value of log₁₀^AFP⁡  ≥ 2.04 indicated a better prognosis with 76.9% specificity and 62.5% sensitivity for patients with HBACLF. Age (HR 1.041), total bilirubin (HR 1.004), log₁₀^AFP⁡  (HR 2.155), and INR (HR 1.446) were found to be risk factors of survival.

CONCLUSION

AFP could be a useful marker to predict outcomes of acute-on-chronic liver failure.