Conditional survival estimate of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure: a dynamic prediction based on a multicenter cohort

Risk Factors of Chronic Kidney Disease in Chronic Hepatitis B: A Hospital-based Case-control Study from China

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) usually occurs during the chronic infection of hepatitis B virus (HBV). However, the risk factors of CKD in an HBV population have not been completely demonstrated. Our present study aimed to investigate the risk factors of CKD in chronic HBV infection using a hospital based cross-sectional study in the northern area of China.

METHODS

During January 2013 to December 2017, a total of 94 patients with CKD complicated by chronic HBV infection were consecutively enrolled in the study, as well as 548 age- and sex-matched hepatitis B patients without CKD who were enrolled as controls. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to determine the effects of each variable after adjusting for cofounding factors.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis showed that HBeAg-positive status (odds ratio [OR]=2.099, 95% CI 1.128-3.907), dyslipidemia (OR: 3.025, 95% CI 1.747-5.239), and hypertension (OR: 12.523, 95% CI 6.283-24.958) were independently associated with the incidence of CKD, while duration of HBV infection (≥240 months) (OR: 0.401, 95% CI 0.179-0.894), Log₁₀ HBsAg (OR: 0.514, 95% CI 0.336-0.786), and coronary heart disease (OR: 0.078, 95% CI 0.008-0.768) were protective factors for the incidence of CKD. Duration of HBV infection, Log₁₀ HBsAg, HBeAg-positive status and dyslipidemia remained the risk factors for CKD after adjusting for diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and coronary heart disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Duration of HBV infection, Log₁₀ HBsAg, HBeAg-positive status and dyslipidemia contributed to the incidence of CKD during chronic HBV infection in a Chinese population.

Impact of compensated cirrhosis on survival in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background and aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is considered a main prognostic event in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). We analyzed the 28-day and 90-day mortality in ACLF patients with or without underlying cirrhosis enrolled in the ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) database.

Methods

A total of 1,621 patients were prospectively enrolled and 637 (39.3%) of these patients had cirrhosis. Baseline characteristics, complications and mortality were compared between patients with and without cirrhosis.

Results

Alcohol consumption was more common in cirrhosis than non-cirrhosis (66.4% vs. 44.2%, p < 0.0001), while non-alcoholic fatty liver disease/cryptogenic CLD (10.9% vs 5.8%, p < 0.0001) and chronic HBV reactivation (18.8% vs 11.8%, p < 0.0001) were more common in non-cirrhosis. Only 0.8% of patients underwent liver transplantation. Overall, 28-day and 90-day mortality rates were 39.3% and 49.9%, respectively. Patients with cirrhosis had a greater chance of survival compared to those without cirrhosis both at 28-day (HR = 0.48; 95% CI 0.36–0.63, p < 0.0001) and 90-day (HR = 0.56; 95% CI 0.43–0.72, p < 0.0001), respectively. In alcohol CLD, non-cirrhosis patients had a higher 28-day (49.9% vs. 23.6%, p < 0.001) and 90-day (58.4% vs. 35.2%, p < 0.001) mortality rate than cirrhosis patients. ACLF patients with cirrhosis had longer mean survival than non-cirrhosis patients (25.5 vs. 18.8 days at 28-day and 65.2 vs. 41.2 days at 90-day). Exaggerated systemic inflammation might be the reason why non-cirrhosis patients had a poorer prognosis than those with cirrhosis after ACLF had occurred.

Conclusions

The 28-day and 90-day mortality rates of ACLF patients without cirrhosis were significantly higher than those with cirrhosis in alcoholic CLD. The presence of cirrhosis and its stage should be evaluated at baseline to guide for management. Thai Clinical Trials Registry, TCTR20191226002.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12072-021-10266-8.

Incorporating conditional survival into prognostication for gunshot wounds to the head

OBJECTIVE

Several scores estimate the prognosis for gunshot wounds to the head (GSWH) at the point of hospital admission. However, prognosis may change over the course of the hospital stay. This study measures the accuracy of the Baylor score among patients who have already survived the acute phase of hospitalization and generates conditional outcome curves for the duration of hospital stay for patients with GSWH.

METHODS

Patients in whom GSWH with dural penetration occurred between January 2009 and June 2019 were identified from a trauma registry at a level I trauma center in the southeastern US. The Baylor score was calculated using component variables. Conditional overall survival and good functional outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale score of 4 or 5) curves were generated. The accuracy of the Baylor score in predicting mortality and functional outcome among acute-phase survivors (survival > 48 hours) was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves and the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 297 patients were included (mean age 38.0 [SD 15.7] years, 73.4% White, 85.2% male), and 129 patients survived the initial 48 hours of admission. These acute-phase survivors had a decreased mortality rate of 32.6% (n = 42) compared to 68.4% (n = 203) for all patients, and an increased rate of good functional outcome (48.1%; n = 62) compared to the rate for all patients (23.2%; n = 69). Among acute-phase survivors, the Baylor score accurately predicted mortality (AUC = 0.807) and functional outcome (AUC = 0.837). However, the Baylor score generally overestimated true mortality rates and underestimated good functional outcome. Additionally, hospital day 18 represented an inflection point of decreasing probability of good functional outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

During admission for GSWH, surviving beyond the acute phase of 48 hours doubles the rates of survival and good functional outcome. The Baylor score maintains reasonable accuracy in predicting these outcomes for acute-phase survivors, but generally overestimates mortality and underestimates good functional outcome. Future prognostic models should incorporate conditional survival to improve the accuracy of prognostication after the acute phase.

Predictors of early mortality among patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

Background and Aim

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a transpiring entity, which possesses high short-term/early mortality (28 days). Several mortality predictors have been studied, but none were proved reliable. Serum ferritin, an acute phase reactant and marker of hepatic necro-inflammation, is found to predict mortality in multiple liver diseases. We aimed to evaluate the role of serum ferritin and other clinical features, biochemical parameters and conventional scoring systems in predicting early mortality among ACLF.

Methods

A prospective cohort study was done from October 2017 to March 2019 at a tertiary care (non-transplant) center in eastern India. A total of consecutive 50 ACLF patients diagnosed, based on Asia Pacific Association for the Study of liver disease definition, were investigated for ferritin and other laboratory parameters on day-0, day-7, and followed up for 28 days.

Results

Although the majority did not have organ failure (ACLF grade 0) according to European Association for Study of Liver-chronic liver failure sequential organ failure assessment criteria, early mortality was high (56%). On undergoing univariate analysis, multiple variables (ascites, HE, creatinine, total leucocyte count (TLC), bilirubin, albumin) predicted mortality. However, on multivariate analysis, only total bilirubin independently predicted. None of the scores on day-0 were predictive, while model for end-stage liver disease [area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC)-0.703, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.535-0.859] and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (AUROC-0.697, 95% CI: 0.550-0.855) on day-7 did.

Conclusion

ACLF is a dynamic process; day-7 assessment with above predictors, to be considered a milestone for prognostication and opting treatment modalities. Serum ferritin does not predict early mortality in ACLF.

Conditional survival analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide with an approximate 5-year survival of greater than 50% in patients after surgical resection. Survival estimates have limited utility for patients who have survived several years after initial treatment. We analyzed how conditional survival (CS) after curative-intent surgery for HCC predicts survival estimates over time.

METHODS

NCDB (2004-2014) was queried for patients undergoing definitive surgical resection for HCC. Cumulative overall survival (OS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and CS at x years after diagnosis was calculated as CS1  = OS (X+5) /OS(X) .

RESULTS

The final analysis encompassed 11 357 patients. Age, negative margin status, grade severity and radiation before surgery were statistically significant predictors of cumulative overall conditional survival (P ≤ .0001). Overall unconditional 5-year survival was 65.7%, but CS estimates were higher. A patient who has already survived 3 years has an additional 2-year, or 5-year CS, estimate of 86.96%.

CONCLUSION

Survival estimates following hepatic resection in HCC patients change according to survival time accrued since surgery. CS estimates are improved relative to unconditional OS. The impact of different variables influencing OS is likewise nonlinear over the course of time after surgery.

Conditional Survival Estimates Improve Over Time for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: An Analysis for Nationwide Korea Cancer Registry Database

Purpose

Conditional survival estimates (CSE) can provide additional useful prognostic information on the period of survival after diagnosis, which helps in counseling patients with cancer on their individual prognoses. This study aimed to analyze conditional survival (CS) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using a Korean national registry.

Materials and Methods

Patients with HCC, registered in the Korean cancer registry database, were retrospectively reviewed. Overall survival (OS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The 1-year CS at X year or month after diagnosis were calculated as CS₁=OS_(X+1)/OS_(X). CS calculations were performed in each Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, after which patients at stage 0, A, and B underwent subgroup analysis using initial treatment methods.

Results

A total of 4,063 patients diagnosed with HCC from January 2008 to December 2010, and 2,721 who were diagnosed from January 2011 to December 2012, were separately reviewed. In 2008-2010, the 1-year CS of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-year survivors was 82.9%, 85.1%, 88.3%, 88.0%, and 88.6%, respectively. Patients demonstrated an increase in CSE over time in subgroup analysis, especially in the advanced stages. In 2011-2012, the 1-year CS of 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, and 36 months was 81.5%, 83.8%, 85.3%, 85.5%, 86.5%, and 88.8%, respectively. The subgroup analysis showed the same tendency towards increased CSE in the advanced stages.

Conclusion

Overall, the CS improved with each additional year after diagnosis in both groups. CSE may therefore provide a more accurate prognosis and hopeful message to patients who are surviving with or after treatment.

The assessment of multipotent cell transplantation in acute-on-chronic liver failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a serious life-threatening disease with high prevalence. Liver transplantation is the only efficient clinical treatment for ACLF. Because of the rapid progression and lack of liver donors, it is urgent to find an effective and safe therapeutic approach to ACLF. Recent studies showed that multipotent cell transplantation could improve the patients' liver function and enhance their preoperative condition. Cells such as mesenchymal stem cells, bone marrow mononuclear cells and autologous peripheral blood stem cells, which addressed in this study have all been used in multipotent cell transplantation for liver diseases. However, its clinical efficiency is still debatable. This systematic review and meta-analysis explored the clinical efficiency of multipotent cell transplantation as a therapeutic approach for patients with ACLF. A detailed search of the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, and Embase databases was conducted from inception to November 2017. The outcome measures were serum albumin, prothrombin time, alanine aminotransferase, total bilirubin, platelets, hemoglobin, white blood cells, and survival time. The quality of evidence was assessed using GRADEpro and Jaded scores. A literature search resulted in 537 citations. Of these, 9 articles met the inclusion criteria. It was found that multipotent cell transplantation was able to alleviate liver damage and improve liver function. Multipotent cell transplantation can also enhance the short-term and medium-term survival rates of ACLF. All 9 research articles included in this analysis reported no statistically significant adverse events, side effects, or complications. In conclusions, this study suggested that multipotent cell transplantation could be recommended as a potential therapeutic supplementary tool in clinical practice. However, clinical trials in large-volume centers still needed.

Clinical performance of stem cell therapy in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Stem cell therapy has been applied in the treatment of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, its clinical efficiency is still debatable. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to evaluate the clinical efficiency of stem cell therapy in the treatment of ACLF.

METHODS

The Cochrane Library, OVID, EMBASE, and PUBMED were searched to December 2017. Both randomized and non-randomized studies, assessing stem cell therapy in patients with ACLF, were included. The outcome measures were total bilirubin (TBIL), alanine transaminase (ALT), international normalized ratio (INR), albumin (ALB), and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The quality of evidence was assessed by GRADEpro.

RESULTS

Four randomized controlled trials and six non-randomized controlled trials were included. The TBIL levels significantly decreased at 1-, 3-, 12-month after the stem cell therapy (p = 0.0008; p = 0.04; p = 0.007). The ALT levels decreased significantly compared with the control group in the short-term (p < 0.00001). There was no obvious change in the INR level compared with the control groups (p = 0.64). The ALB levels increased markedly as compared with the control groups (p < 0.0001). The significant difference can be found in MELD score between stem cell therapy and control groups (p = 0.008). Further subgroup analysis for 3-month clinical performance according to the stem cell types have also been performed.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that the clinical outcomes of stem cell therapy were satisfied in patients with ACLF in the short-term. MSCs may be better than BM-MNCs in the stem cells transplantation of ACLF. However, more attention should focus on clinical trials in large-volume centers.

Identification of key candidate genes and pathways in hepatitis B virus-associated acute liver failure by bioinformatical analysis

Hepatitis B virus-associated acute liver failure (HBV-ALF) is a rare but life-threatening syndrome that carried a high morbidity and mortality. Our study aimed to explore the possible molecular mechanisms of HBV-ALF by means of bioinformatics analysis. In this study, genes expression microarray datasets of HBV-ALF from Gene Expression Omnibus were collected, and then we identified differentially expressed genes (DEGs) by the limma package in R. After functional enrichment analysis, we constructed the protein-protein interaction (PPI) network by the Search Tool for the Retrieval of Interacting Genes online database and weighted genes coexpression network by the WGCNA package in R. Subsequently, we picked out the hub genes among the DEGs. A total of 423 DEGs with 198 upregulated genes and 225 downregulated genes were identified between HBV-ALF and normal samples. The upregulated genes were mainly enriched in immune response, and the downregulated genes were mainly enriched in complement and coagulation cascades. Orosomucoid 1 (ORM1), orosomucoid 2 (ORM2), plasminogen (PLG), and aldehyde oxidase 1 (AOX1) were picked out as the hub genes that with a high degree in both PPI network and weighted genes coexpression network. The weighted genes coexpression network analysis found out 3 of the 5 modules that upregulated genes enriched in were closely related to immune system. The downregulated genes enriched in only one module, and the genes in this module majorly enriched in the complement and coagulation cascades pathway. In conclusion, 4 genes (ORM1, ORM2, PLG, and AOX1) with immune response and the complement and coagulation cascades pathway may take part in the pathogenesis of HBV-ALF, and these candidate genes and pathways could be therapeutic targets for HBV-ALF.

Prognostic nomogram for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

Background & Aims

To establish an effective prognostic nomogram for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF).

Materials and Methods

The nomogram was based on clinical data of 203 ACHBLF patients who admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University from 2009 to 2014. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration curve were carried out to verify the predictive accuracy ability of the nomogram. The result was validated in internal and external validation cohorts. Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used in survival analysis.

Results

We developed a new prognostic nomogram to predict 3-month mortality based on risk factors selected by multivariate analysis. This nomogram consisted three independent factors: age, liver to abdominal area ratio (LAAR) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The AUC of this nomogram for survival prediction was 0.877 (95% CI 0.831–0.923), which was higher than that of MELD score, MELD-Na and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP). Good agreement of calibration plot for the probability of survival at 3-month was shown between the prediction by nomogram and actual observation. These results were supported by internal and external validation studies.

Conclusions

The ACHBLF nomogram could predict the short-term survival for ACHBLF patients.

Liver failure determines the outcome in patients of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF): comparison of APASL ACLF research consortium (AARC) and CLIF-SOFA models

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a progressive disease associated with rapid clinical worsening and high mortality. Early prediction of mortality and intervention can improve patient outcomes. We aimed to develop a dynamic prognostic model and compare it with the existing models.

METHODS

A total of 1402 ACLF patients, enrolled in the APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) with 90-day follow-up, were analyzed. An ACLF score was developed in a derivation cohort (n = 480) and was validated (n = 922).

RESULTS

The overall survival of ACLF patients at 28 days was 51.7%, with a median of 26.3 days. Five baseline variables, total bilirubin, creatinine, serum lactate, INR and hepatic encephalopathy, were found to be independent predictors of mortality, with AUROC in derivation and validation cohorts being 0.80 and 0.78, respectively. AARC-ACLF score (range 5-15) was found to be superior to MELD and CLIF SOFA scores in predicting mortality with an AUROC of 0.80. The point scores were categorized into grades of liver failure (Gr I: 5-7; II: 8-10; and III: 11-15 points) with 28-day cumulative mortalities of 12.7, 44.5 and 85.9%, respectively. The mortality risk could be dynamically calculated as, with each unit increase in AARC-ACLF score above 10, the risk increased by 20%. A score of ≥11 at baseline or persisting in the first week was often seen among nonsurvivors (p = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The AARC-ACLF score is easy to use, dynamic and reliable, and superior to the existing prediction models. It can reliably predict the need for interventions, such as liver transplant, within the first week.

Conditional disease-free survival after liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: A two-center experience

Traditionally, survival estimates following liver transplantation (LT) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients were calculated as survival from the surgery date, but future survival probabilities can change over time and conditional disease-free survival (CDFS) may provide patients and clinicians with more accurate prognostic information. This study aimed to assess CDFS in HCC patients after LT.Three hundred eighty-four HCC patients who underwent LT were included. Disease-free survival (DFS) was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier analysis. The 3-year CDFS, which represents the probability of remaining disease free for an additional 3 years, was calculated.1-, 3-, and 5-year DFS rates after LT were 69.9%, 45.8%, and 39.0 %, respectively. Based on the concept of CDFS, the probability of surviving an additional 3 years given that the patient was disease free at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years were 58.4%, 76.9%, and 83.1%, respectively. Multivariate analysis indicated that larger tumor size (hazard ratio [HR], 1.509; 95% CI, 1.146-1.985; P = 0.003) was associated with poorer DFS. Patients with worse prognostic features at baseline demonstrated the greater increase in CDFS over time.Survival estimates following liver transplantation of HCC patients change according to survival time accrued since surgery. CDFS estimates improved dramatically over time especially among patients with worse prognostic features at the time of surgery. CDFS may be a useful tool in counseling patients with HCC, as it is a more accurate assessment of future survival for those patients who have already survived a certain amount of time.