Substituting space for time: Bird responses to forest loss in space provide a general picture of responses over time

The practice of space-for-time substitution assumes that the responses of species or communities to land-use change over space represents how they will respond to that same change over time. Space-for-time substitution is commonly used in both ecology and conservation, but whether the assumption produces reliable insights remains inconclusive. Here, we tested space-for-time substitution using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and Global Forest Change (GFC) to compare the effects of landscape-scale forest cover on bird richness and abundance over time and space, for 25 space-time comparisons. Each comparison consisted of a landscape that experienced at least 20% forest loss over 19 years (temporal site) and a set of 15-19 landscapes (spatial sites) that represented the same forest cover gradient over space in 2019 as experienced over time in their corresponding temporal site. Across the 25 comparisons, the observed responses of forest and open-habitat birds to forest cover over time generally aligned with their responses to forest cover over space, but with comparatively higher variability in the magnitude and direction of effect across the 25 temporal slopes than across the 25 spatial slopes. On average, the mean differences between the spatial and temporal slopes across the 25 space-time comparisons frequently overlapped with zero, suggesting that the spatial slopes are generally informative of the temporal slopes. However, we observed high variability around these mean differences, indicating that a single spatial slope is not strongly predictive of its corresponding temporal slope. We suggest that our results may be explained by annual variability in other relevant environmental factors that combine to produce complex effects on population abundances over time that are not easily captured by snapshots in space. While not being a 1:1 proxy, measuring bird responses to changes in habitat amount in space provides an idea on how birds might be expected to eventually equilibrate to similar changes in habitat amount over time. Further, analyses such as this could be potentially used to screen for cases of regional space-time mismatches where population-limiting factors other than habitat could be playing a more important role in the population trends observed there.

Are weak dispersers more vulnerable than strong dispersers to land use intensification?

Ecologists often state that weak dispersers are particularly at risk from land use intensification, and that they therefore should be prioritized for conservation. We reviewed the empirical evidence, to evaluate whether this idea should be used as a general rule in conservation. While 89% of authors predicted that weak dispersers are more vulnerable to land use intensification (80 out of 90 papers), only 56% of reported tests (235 out of 422) were consistent with this prediction. Thirty per cent of tests (128 out of 422) were consistent with the opposite prediction, that strong dispersers are more vulnerable to intensification, and 60% of articles (45 out of 75) had at least one test where strong dispersers were most vulnerable. The likelihood of finding that weak dispersers are more vulnerable to intensification than strong dispersers varied with latitude, taxonomic group and type of land use intensification. Notably, the odds of finding that weak dispersers are more vulnerable to intensification than strong dispersers was higher if the study was nearer to the equator. Taken together, our results show that the prediction that weak dispersers are more vulnerable than strong dispersers to intensification is not sufficiently supported to justify using weak dispersal as a general indicator of species risk in human-modified landscapes.

Designing optimal human-modified landscapes for forest biodiversity conservation

Agriculture and development transform forest ecosystems to human-modified landscapes. Decades of research in ecology have generated myriad concepts for the appropriate management of these landscapes. Yet, these concepts are often contradictory and apply at different spatial scales, making the design of biodiversity-friendly landscapes challenging. Here, we combine concepts with empirical support to design optimal landscape scenarios for forest-dwelling species. The supported concepts indicate that appropriately sized landscapes should contain ≥ 40% forest cover, although higher percentages are likely needed in the tropics. Forest cover should be configured with c. 10% in a very large forest patch, and the remaining 30% in many evenly dispersed smaller patches and semi-natural treed elements (e.g. vegetation corridors). Importantly, the patches should be embedded in a high-quality matrix. The proposed landscape scenarios represent an optimal compromise between delivery of goods and services to humans and preserving most forest wildlife, and can therefore guide forest preservation and restoration strategies.

The influence of landscape alterations on changes in ground beetle (Carabidae) and spider (Araneae) functional groups between 1995 and 2013 in an urban fringe of China

Urbanization is one of the main causes of land use change, especially from 1990 to now in China, but knowledge of its effect on different functional groups of carabids and spiders in the adjacent rural areas over time remains limited. We assessed whether landscape alterations (1993 versus 2013) drove changes in carabid and spider functional groups (1995 versus 2013) in an agricultural landscape located on the fringe of a rapidly growing city in China. Although built-up land increased from 6.3% to 32% across the whole landscape, the overall species richness of carabids and spiders did not decline. In contrast to the reduction in species richness of large carabids, the species richness of small carabids increased. Species richness of both large and small spiders increased. The species composition of carabids and spiders significantly changed between 1995 and 2013. Species compositions of large, predatory carabids and large or ground-hunting spiders were more sensitive to the changes in built-up land than those of small, omnivorous carabids and small or web-building spiders. The amount of grassland (abandoned land covered by wild grass) also increased as farmers began to work in the city. The increased grassland significantly contributed to the increased species richness of predatory and macropterous carabids. However, increased landscape diversity did not affect species richness of either carabids or spiders. High landscape diversity was related to reduction in field size, resulting in a decrease in the mean body size of carabids. This indicates that evaluating the effect of landscape change on carabid and spider diversity should be based on their functional traits. Different taxa, even different functional groups, have different responses to landscape change. The increase in built-up land did not immediately reduce species richness at the urban fringe. Increasing wild grasslands and combining smaller fields may benefit farmland biodiversity in this region.

Managing biological control services through multi-trophic trait interactions: review and guidelines for implementation at local and landscape scales

Ecological studies are increasingly moving towards trait-based approaches, as the evidence mounts that functions, as opposed to taxonomy, drive ecosystem service delivery. Among ecosystem services, biological control has been somewhat overlooked in functional ecological studies. This is surprising given that, over recent decades, much of biological control research has been focused on identifying the multiple characteristics (traits) of species that influence trophic interactions. These traits are especially well developed for interactions between arthropods and flowers - important for biological control, as floral resources can provide natural enemies with nutritional supplements, which can dramatically increase biological control efficiency. Traits that underpin the biological control potential of a community and that drive the response of arthropods to environmental filters, from local to landscape-level conditions, are also emerging from recent empirical studies. We present an overview of the traits that have been identified to (i) drive trophic interactions, especially between plants and biological control agents through determining access to floral resources and enhancing longevity and fecundity of natural enemies, (ii) affect the biological control services provided by arthropods, and (iii) limit the response of arthropods to environmental filters, ranging from local management practices to landscape-level simplification. We use this review as a platform to outline opportunities and guidelines for future trait-based studies focused on the enhancement of biological control services.

Low reproductive rate predicts species sensitivity to habitat loss: a meta-analysis of wetland vertebrates

We tested the hypotheses that species with greater mobility and/or higher reproductive rates are less sensitive to habitat loss than species with lower mobility and/or reproductive rates by conducting a meta-analysis of wetland vertebrate responses to wetland habitat loss. We combined data from 90 studies conducted worldwide that quantified the relationship between wetland amount in a landscape and population abundance of at least one wetland species to determine if mobility (indexed as home range size and body length) and annual reproductive rate influence species responses to wetland loss. When analyzed across all taxa, animals with higher reproductive rates were less sensitive to wetland loss. Surprisingly, we did not find an effect of mobility on response to wetland loss. Overall, wetland mammals and birds were more sensitive to wetland loss than were reptiles and amphibians. Our results suggest that dispersal between habitat patches is less important than species’ reproductive rates for population persistence in fragmented landscapes. This implies that immigration and colonization rate is most strongly related to reproduction, which determines the total number of potential colonists.

Ecological traits affect the response of tropical forest bird species to land-use intensity

Land-use change is one of the main drivers of current and likely future biodiversity loss. Therefore, understanding how species are affected by it is crucial to guide conservation decisions. Species respond differently to land-use change, possibly related to their traits. Using pan-tropical data on bird occurrence and abundance across a human land-use intensity gradient, we tested the effects of seven traits on observed responses. A likelihood-based approach allowed us to quantify uncertainty in modelled responses, essential for applying the model to project future change. Compared with undisturbed habitats, the average probability of occurrence of bird species was 7.8 per cent and 31.4 per cent lower, and abundance declined by 3.7 per cent and 19.2 per cent in habitats with low and high human land-use intensity, respectively. Five of the seven traits tested affected the observed responses significantly: long-lived, large, non-migratory, primarily frugivorous or insectivorous forest specialists were both less likely to occur and less abundant in more intensively used habitats than short-lived, small, migratory, non-frugivorous/insectivorous habitat generalists. The finding that species responses to land use depend on their traits is important for understanding ecosystem functioning, because species' traits determine their contribution to ecosystem processes. Furthermore, the loss of species with particular traits might have implications for the delivery of ecosystem services.

Unraveling the drivers of community dissimilarity and species extinction in fragmented landscapes

Communities in fragmented landscapes are often assumed to be structured by species extinction due to habitat loss, which has led to extensive use of the species-area relationship (SAR) in fragmentation studies. However, the use of the SAR presupposes that habitat loss leads species to extinction but does not allow for extinction to be offset by colonization of disturbed-habitat specialists. Moreover, the use of SAR assumes that species richness is a good proxy of community changes in fragmented landscapes. Here, we assessed how communities dwelling in fragmented landscapes are influenced by habitat loss at multiple scales; then we estimated the ability of models ruled by SAR and by species turnover in successfully predicting changes in community composition, and asked whether species richness is indeed an informative community metric. To address these issues, we used a data set consisting of 140 bird species sampled in 65 patches, from six landscapes with different proportions of forest cover in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. We compared empirical patterns against simulations of over 8 million communities structured by different magnitudes of the power-law SAR and with species-specific rules to assign species to sites. Empirical results showed that, while bird community composition was strongly influenced by habitat loss at the patch and landscape scale, species richness remained largely unaffected. Modeling results revealed that the compositional changes observed in the Atlantic Forest bird metacommunity were only matched by models with either unrealistic magnitudes of the SAR or by models ruled by species turnover, akin to what would be observed along natural gradients. We show that, in the presence of such compositional turnover, species richness is poorly correlated with species extinction, and z values of the SAR strongly underestimate the effects of habitat loss. We suggest that the observed compositional changes are driven by each species reaching its individual extinction threshold: either a threshold of forest cover for species that disappear with habitat loss, or of matrix cover for species that benefit from habitat loss.

Assessing regional and interspecific variation in threshold responses of forest breeding birds through broad scale analyses

BACKGROUND

Identifying persistence and extinction thresholds in species-habitat relationships is a major focal point of ecological research and conservation. However, one major concern regarding the incorporation of threshold analyses in conservation is the lack of knowledge on the generality and transferability of results across species and regions. We present a multi-region, multi-species approach of modeling threshold responses, which we use to investigate whether threshold effects are similar across species and regions.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We modeled local persistence and extinction dynamics of 25 forest-associated breeding birds based on detection/non-detection data, which were derived from repeated breeding bird atlases for the state of Vermont. We did not find threshold responses to be particularly well-supported, with 9 species supporting extinction thresholds and 5 supporting persistence thresholds. This contrasts with a previous study based on breeding bird atlas data from adjacent New York State, which showed that most species support persistence and extinction threshold models (15 and 22 of 25 study species respectively). In addition, species that supported a threshold model in both states had associated average threshold estimates of 61.41% (SE = 6.11, persistence) and 66.45% (SE = 9.15, extinction) in New York, compared to 51.08% (SE = 10.60, persistence) and 73.67% (SE = 5.70, extinction) in Vermont. Across species, thresholds were found at 19.45-87.96% forest cover for persistence and 50.82-91.02% for extinction dynamics.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Through an approach that allows for broad-scale comparisons of threshold responses, we show that species vary in their threshold responses with regard to habitat amount, and that differences between even nearby regions can be pronounced. We present both ecological and methodological factors that may contribute to the different model results, but propose that regardless of the reasons behind these differences, our results merit a warning that threshold values cannot simply be transferred across regions or interpreted as clear-cut targets for ecosystem management and conservation.

Evaluating the quality of citizen-scientist data on pollinator communities

Concerns about pollinator declines have grown in recent years, yet the ability to detect changes in abundance, taxonomic richness, and composition of pollinator communities is hampered severely by the lack of data over space and time. Citizen scientists may be able to extend the spatial and temporal extent of pollinator monitoring programs. We developed a citizen-science monitoring protocol in which we trained 13 citizen scientists to observe and classify floral visitors at the resolution of orders or super families (e.g., bee, wasp, fly) and at finer resolution within bees (superfamily Apoidea) only. We evaluated the protocol by comparing data collected simultaneously at 17 sites by citizen scientists (observational data set) and by professionals (specimen-based data set). The sites differed with respect to the presence and age of hedgerows planted to improve habitat quality for pollinators. We found significant, positive correlations among the two data sets for higher level taxonomic composition, honey bee (Apis mellifera) abundance, non-Apis bee abundance, bee richness, and bee community similarity. Results for both data sets also showed similar trends (or lack thereof) in these metrics among sites differing in the presence and age of hedgerows. Nevertheless, citizen scientists did not observe approximately half of the bee groups collected by professional scientists at the same sites. Thus, the utility of citizen-science observational data may be restricted to detection of community-level changes in abundance, richness, or similarity over space and time, and citizen-science observations may not reliably reflect the abundance or frequency of occurrence of specific pollinator species or groups.

Reproductive rate and body size predict road impacts on mammal abundance

It has been hypothesized that mobile species should be more negatively affected by road mortality than less-mobile species because they interact with roads more often, and that species with lower reproductive rates and longer generation times should be more susceptible to road effects because they will be less able to rebound quickly from population declines. Taken together, these hypotheses suggest that, in general, larger species should be more affected by road networks than smaller species because larger species generally have lower reproductive rates and longer generation times and are more mobile than smaller species. We tested these hypotheses by estimating relative abundances of 17 mammal species across landscapes ranging in road density within eastern Ontario, Canada. For each of the 13 species for which detectability was not related to road density, we quantified the relationship between road density and relative abundance. We then tested three cross-species predictions: that the slope of the relationship between road density and abundance should become increasingly negative with (1) decreasing annual reproductive rate; (2) increasing home range area (an indicator of movement range); and (3) increasing body size. All three predictions were supported in univariate models, with R2 values of 0.68, 0.50, and 0.52 respectively. The best overall model based on AICc contained both reproductive rate (P = 0.008) and body size (P = 0.072) and explained 77% of the variation in the slope of the relationship between road density and abundance. Our results suggest that priority should be placed on mitigating road effects on large mammals with low reproductive rates.

The lag daemon: hysteresis in rebuilding landscapes and implications for biodiversity futures

Many native bird species in production landscapes of south-eastern Australia demonstrably are declining, with loss of native vegetation as the major cause. Our biodiversity management objectives must be to increase the probabilities of persistence of birds that should occur in the landscape. To do so, there needs to be extensive amounts of new planting. However, one must be conscious that: (1) new planting in the impoverished soils and increasing aridity of southern Australia will take many decades to mature, and, also, will offer suitable habitats for a sequence of different species over the course of that maturation process; and (2) much existing vegetation is senescent or will be in a few decades' time. Recent landscape rebuilding models do not explicitly consider maturation time-lags. These hysteresis in habitat maturation may create 'bottlenecks' at future times (e.g. in 50 yr) that might prevent some species from persisting in whole landscapes even though such landscapes may be much more suitable in 100 yr than now. There are several critical issues: (1) species differ in habitat needs and even one species may require different kinds of habitats for foraging and for breeding; (2) landscapes must be conceived, and managed, as spatial and temporal mosaics to allow for persistence of the full set of species that should occupy them, meaning that senescing and replanted habitats may need to be juxtaposed; and (3) in certain particularly problematic landscapes, some highly productive agricultural lands may need to be used for providing habitat because maturation can be fast-tracked in fertile, well-watered locations. The problem is a complex one of scheduling and placement, and its optimization presents major theoretical and analytical challenges.

ESTIMATES OF MINIMUM PATCH SIZE DEPEND ON THE METHOD OF ESTIMATION AND THE CONDITION OF THE HABITAT

Minimum patch size for a viable population can be estimated in several ways. The density-area method estimates minimum patch size as the smallest area in which no new individuals are encountered as one extends the arbitrary boundaries of a study area outward. The density-area method eliminates the assumption of no variation in density with size of habitat area that accompanies other methods, but it is untested in situations in which habitat loss has confined populations to small areas. We used a variant of the density area method to study the minimum patch size for the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) in Florida, USA, where this keystone species is being confined to ever smaller habitat fragments. The variant was based on the premise that individuals within populations are likely to occur at unusually high densities when confined to small areas, and it estimated minimum patch size as the smallest area beyond which density plateaus. The data for our study came from detailed surveys of 38 populations of the tortoise. For all 38 populations, the areas occupied were determined empirically, and for 19 of them, duplicate surveys were undertaken about a decade apart. We found that a consistent inverse density area relationship was present over smaller areas. The minimum patch size estimated from the density-area relationship was at least 100 ha, which is substantially larger than previous estimates. The relative abundance of juveniles was inversely related to population density for sites with relatively poor habitat quality, indicating that the estimated minimum patch size could represent an extinction threshold. We concluded that a negative density area relationship may be an inevitable consequence of excessive habitat loss. We also concluded that any detrimental effects of an inverse density area relationship may be exacerbated by the deterioration in habitat quality that often accompanies habitat loss. Finally, we concluded that the value of any estimate of minimum patch size as a conservation tool is compromised by excessive habitat loss.

A comparison of landscapes occupied by increasing and decreasing populations of grassland birds

For several decades, many grassland bird species have been declining in abundance throughout the Midwest and Great Plains regions of the United States, possibly due to loss of natural grassland habitat and increasing urbanization. I used 20 years of data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to identify increasing, decreasing, and stable populations of 36 grassland-nesting bird species. I characterized the immediate landscape (circle with radius = 30 km) surrounding each population based on data from the National Resources Inventory. For each landscape, I calculated the proportion of eight different land-cover types: restored grassland, rangeland, cultivated cropland, pasture, noncultivated cropland, forest, urban land, and water. Using a null model, I compared landscape composition of increasing, decreasing, and stable populations. As predicted on the basis of the habitat preferences of grassland birds, increasing populations inhabited landscapes that contained significantly more restored grassland and rangeland but significantly less forest land and urban land than landscapes inhabited by decreasing populations. There was no significant difference in the proportion of cropland within the landscapes of increasing and decreasing populations, although cropland composed a large proportion (>30%) of many landscapes. In contrast, restored grassland typically composed a very small proportion (<3.5%) of total land cover, yet it was significantly more common in the landscapes of increasing than decreasing populations. These results suggest that grassland birds may benefit from government initiatives, such as the Conservation Reserve Program, that promote the restoration of grassland at a landscape scale.