Sampling design considerations for demographic studies: a case of colonial seabirds

Daily, seasonal, and long-distance movements inferred from Fastloc-GPS telemetry of immature green turtles (Chelonia mydas) at a high-latitude, mid-ocean developmental site

To characterize the movements and habitat use of juvenile green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in benthic developmental habitat, we deployed Fastloc-GPS-enabled satellite transmitters on 16 individuals captured as part of a multi-decade study of green turtles on the Bermuda Platform. We characterized residence areas, distinct use areas within them, and seasonal movements based on an average of 562 Fastloc-GPS positions and 284 tracking days per turtle. We estimated residence area sizes using traditional home range methods, e.g., 90% utilization distribution (UD) (mean 2.29 ±2.71 km2) and 50% UD (mean 0.54 ±0.69 km2). Total residence area size increased significantly over the 8-year study, from <1 km2 before 2013 to ≥3 km2 in 2018 (R2 = 0.51, F1,14 = 14.55, p = 0.0019), corresponding to a period of decline in seagrass habitat and suggesting increased foraging effort. We identified three types of distinct use areas within residence areas where tracked turtles typically exhibited behavioral fidelity: foraging, resting, and cool weather refugia. These distinct use areas were smaller than high-use areas from previous studies; e.g., seagrass meadow foraging areas averaged 0.05 km2. Most turtles made daily transits between foraging and resting sites; for some individuals, these involved crossing frequently used vessel navigation channels. Seasonal variation in behavior suggested that the overwintering strategy for green turtles on the Bermuda Platform involves "optional dormancy," during which turtles spent less time on seagrass meadows and made brief excursions to distinct deeper habitats. Four individuals made directed (mean path straightness = 0.93 ±0.02 SD) developmental migrations away from Bermuda toward known adult foraging range. Results of our study further knowledge of the green turtle life cycle at a high-latitude site; they demonstrate that green turtles show fidelity to distinct use areas within developmental habitats over many years and exhibit seasonal movements.

Age-specific growth and maturity estimates for the flatback sea turtle (Natator depressus) by skeletochronology

To address a major knowledge gap for flatback sea turtles (Natator depressus), a species endemic to Australia and considered ‘Data Deficient’ for IUCN Red List assessment, we present the first-ever skeletochronology-derived age and growth rate estimates for this species. Using a rare collection of bone samples gathered from across northern Australia, we applied skeletochronology and characterized the length-at-age relationship, established baseline growth rates from the hatchling to adult life stages, and produced empirical estimates of age-at- and size-at-sexual-maturation (ASM, SSM). We analyzed humeri from 74 flatback sea turtles ranging in body size from 6.0–96.0 cm curved carapace length (CCL), and recovered from Western Australia (n = 48), Eastern Australia (n = 13), central Australia (n = 8; Northern Territory n = 3, the Gulf of Carpentaria n = 5), and unknown locations (n = 5). We identified the onset of sexual maturity for 29 turtles, based on rapprochement growth patterns in the bones. Estimates for ASM ranged from 12.0 to 23.0 years (mean: 16.3 ± 0.53 SE), SSM ranged from 76.1 to 94.0 cm CCL (mean: 84.9 ± 0.90 SE), and maximum observed reproductive longevity was 31 years for a 45-year old male flatback. Growth was modeled as a smoothing spline fit to the size-at-age relationship and at the mean SSM (84.9 cm CCL) corresponded with a spline-predicted maturity age of 18 years (95% CI: 16 to 24), while mean nesting sizes reported in the literature (86.4 to 94 cm CCL) corresponded to estimated ages of 24+ years. A bootstrapped von Bertalanffy growth model was also applied and showed consistencies with the spline curve, yielding an estimated upper size limit, L_inf, at 89.2 ± 0.04 cm (95% CI: 85.5 to 95.9 cm) with the intrinsic growth rate parameter, k, at 0.185 ± 0.0004 (0.16 to 0.22); at the same mean SSM (84.9 cm CCL) the estimated ASM was 16.3 ± 0.05 years (95% CI: 12.8 to 27.7 years). Lastly, four of the samples analyzed were collected from deceased adult females that had previous sizes known from on-going mark/recapture studies at nesting sites in Western Australia. The paired CCL data (measured at nesting and back-calculated) did not significantly differ (p = 0.875). This first skeletochronology study for flatback sea turtles generates valuable empirical estimates for ongoing conservation and management efforts.

Sex-specific costs of reproduction on survival in a long-lived seabird

Costs of reproduction on survival have captured the attention of researchers since life history theory was formulated. Adults of long-lived species may increase survival by reducing their breeding effort or even skipping reproduction. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the costs of current reproduction on survival and whether skipping reproduction increases adult survival in a long-lived seabird. We used capture-mark-recapture data (1450 encounters) from two populations of Bulwer's petrel (Bulweria bulwerii), breeding in the Azores and Canary Islands, North Atlantic Ocean. Using a multi-event model with two different breeding statuses (breeders versus non-breeders), we calculated probabilities of survival and of transitions between breeding statuses, evaluating potential differences between sexes. Females had lower survival probabilities than males, independent of their breeding status. When considering breeding status, breeding females had lower survival probabilities than non-breeding females, suggesting costs of reproduction on survival. Breeding males had higher survival probabilities than non-breeding males, suggesting that males do not incur costs of reproduction on survival and that only the highest quality males have access to breeding. The highest and the lowest probabilities of skipping reproduction were found in breeding males from the Azores and in breeding males from the Canary Islands, respectively. Intermediate values were observed in the females from both populations. This result is probably due to differences in the external factors affecting both populations, essentially predation pressure and competition. The existence of sex-specific costs of reproduction on survival in several populations of this long-lived species may have important implications for species population dynamics.

Making use of multiple surveys: Estimating breeding probability using a multievent-robust design capture-recapture model

Increased environmental stochasticity due to climate change will intensify temporal variance in the life-history traits, and especially breeding probabilities, of long-lived iteroparous species. These changes may decrease individual fitness and population viability and is therefore important to monitor. In wild animal populations with imperfect individual detection, breeding probabilities are best estimated using capture-recapture methods. However, in many vertebrate species (e.g., amphibians, turtles, seabirds), nonbreeders are unobservable because they are not tied to a territory or breeding location. Although unobservable states can be used to model temporary emigration of nonbreeders, there are disadvantages to having unobservable states in capture-recapture models. The best solution to deal with unobservable life-history states is therefore to eliminate them altogether. Here, we achieve this objective by fitting novel multievent-robust design models which utilize information obtained from multiple surveys conducted throughout the year. We use this approach to estimate annual breeding probabilities of capital breeding female elephant seals (Mirounga leonina). Conceptually, our approach parallels a multistate version of the Barker/robust design in that it combines robust design capture data collected during discrete breeding seasons with observations made at other times of the year. A substantial advantage of our approach is that the nonbreeder state became "observable" when multiple data sources were analyzed together. This allowed us to test for the existence of state-dependent survival (with some support found for lower survival in breeders compared to nonbreeders), and to estimate annual breeding transitions to and from the nonbreeder state with greater precision (where current breeders tended to have higher future breeding probabilities than nonbreeders). We used program E-SURGE (2.1.2) to fit the multievent-robust design models, with uncertainty in breeding state assignment (breeder, nonbreeder) being incorporated via a hidden Markov process. This flexible modeling approach can easily be adapted to suit sampling designs from numerous species which may be encountered during and outside of discrete breeding seasons.

Integrated Population Modeling Provides the First Empirical Estimates of Vital Rates and Abundance for Polar Bears in the Chukchi Sea

Large carnivores are imperiled globally, and characteristics making them vulnerable to extinction (e.g., low densities and expansive ranges) also make it difficult to estimate demographic parameters needed for management. Here we develop an integrated population model to analyze capture-recapture, radiotelemetry, and count data for the Chukchi Sea subpopulation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus), 2008-2016. Our model addressed several challenges in capture-recapture studies for polar bears by including a multievent structure reflecting location and life history states, while accommodating state uncertainty. Female breeding probability was 0.83 (95% credible interval [CRI] = 0.71-0.90), with litter sizes of 2.18 (95% CRI = 1.71-2.82) for age-zero and 1.61 (95% CRI = 1.46-1.80) for age-one cubs. Total adult survival was 0.90 (95% CRI = 0.86-0.92) for females and 0.89 (95% CRI = 0.83-0.93) for males. Spring on-ice densities west of Alaska were 0.0030 bears/km2 (95% CRI = 0.0016-0.0060), similar to 1980s-era density estimates although methodological differences complicate comparison. Abundance of the Chukchi Sea subpopulation, derived by extrapolating density from the study area using a spatially-explicit habitat metric, was 2,937 bears (95% CRI = 1,552-5,944). Our findings are consistent with other lines of evidence suggesting the Chukchi Sea subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will continue given sea-ice loss due to climate change.

Population size and stopover duration estimation using mark-resight data and Bayesian analysis of a superpopulation model

We present a novel formulation of a mark-recapture-resight model that allows estimation of population size, stopover duration, and arrival and departure schedules at migration areas. Estimation is based on encounter histories of uniquely marked individuals and relative counts of marked and unmarked animals. We use a Bayesian analysis of a state-space formulation of the Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model, integrated with a binomial model for counts of unmarked animals, to derive estimates of population size and arrival and departure probabilities. We also provide a novel estimator for stopover duration that is derived from the latent state variable representing the interim between arrival and departure in the state-space model. We conduct a simulation study of field sampling protocols to understand the impact of superpopulation size, proportion marked, and number of animals sampled on bias and precision of estimates. Simulation results indicate that relative bias of estimates of the proportion of the population with marks was low for all sampling scenarios and never exceeded 2%. Our approach does not require enumeration of all unmarked animals detected or direct knowledge of the number of marked animals in the population at the time of the study. This provides flexibility and potential application in a variety of sampling situations (e.g., migratory birds, breeding seabirds, sea turtles, fish, pinnipeds, etc.). Application of the methods is demonstrated with data from a study of migratory sandpipers.

Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models

Studying the demography of wild animals remains challenging as several of the critical parts of their life history may be difficult to observe in the field. In particular, determining with certainty when an individual breeds for the first time is not always obvious. This can be problematic because uncertainty about the transition from a prebreeder to a breeder state - recruitment - leads to uncertainty in vital rate estimates and in turn in population projection models. To avoid this issue, the common practice is to discard imperfect data from the analyses. However, this practice can generate a bias in vital rate estimates if uncertainty is related to a specific component of the population and reduces the sample size of the dataset and consequently the statistical power to detect effects of biological interest. Here, we compared the demographic parameters assessed from a standard multistate capture-recapture approach to the estimates obtained from the newly developed multi-event framework that specifically accounts for uncertainty in state assessment. Using a comprehensive longitudinal dataset on southern elephant seals, we demonstrated that the multi-event model enabled us to use all the data collected (6639 capture-recapture histories vs. 4179 with the multistate model) by accounting for uncertainty in breeding states, thereby increasing the precision and accuracy of the demographic parameter estimates. The multi-event model allowed us to incorporate imperfect data into demographic analyses. The gain in precision obtained has important implications in the conservation and management of species because limiting uncertainty around vital rates will permit predicting population viability with greater accuracy.

Contrasting effects of climatic variability on the demography of a trans-equatorial migratory seabird

Large-scale seasonal climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index or the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), account for major variations in weather and climate around the world and may influence population dynamics in many organisms. However, assessing the extent of climate impacts on species and their life-history traits requires reliable quantitative statistical approaches. We used a new analytical tool in mark-recapture, the multi-event modelling, to simultaneously assess the influence of climatic variation on multiple demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, transient probability, reproductive skipping and nest dispersal) at two Mediterranean colonies of the Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, a trans-equatorial migratory long-lived seabird. We also analysed the impact of climate in the breeding success at the two colonies. We found a clear temporal variation of survival for Cory's shearwaters, strongly associated to the large-scale SOI especially in one of the colonies (up to 66% of variance explained). Atlantic hurricane season is modulated by the SOI and coincides with shearwater migration to their wintering areas, directly affecting survival probabilities. However, the SOI was a better predictor of survival probabilities than the frequency of hurricanes; thus, we cannot discard an indirect additive effect of SOI via food availability. Accordingly, the proportion of transients was also correlated with SOI values, indicating higher costs of first reproduction (resulting in either mortality or permanent dispersal) when bad environmental conditions occurred during winter before reproduction. Breeding success was also affected by climatic factors, the NAO explaining c. 41% of variance, probably as a result of its effect in the timing of peak abundance of squid and small pelagics, the main prey for shearwaters. No climatic effect was found either on reproductive skipping or on nest dispersal. Contrarily to what we expect for a long-lived organism, large-scale climatic indexes had a more pronounced effect on survival and transient probabilities than on less sensitive fitness parameters such reproductive skipping or nest dispersal probabilities. The potential increase in hurricane frequency because of global warming may interact with other global change agents (such as incidental bycatch and predation by alien species) nowadays impacting shearwaters, affecting future viability of populations.

A synthesis of tagging studies examining the behaviour and survival of anadromous salmonids in marine environments

This paper synthesizes tagging studies to highlight the current state of knowledge concerning the behaviour and survival of anadromous salmonids in the marine environment. Scientific literature was reviewed to quantify the number and type of studies that have investigated behaviour and survival of anadromous forms of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), brown trout (Salmo trutta), steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii). We examined three categories of tags including electronic (e.g. acoustic, radio, archival), passive (e.g. external marks, Carlin, coded wire, passive integrated transponder [PIT]), and biological (e.g. otolith, genetic, scale, parasites). Based on 207 papers, survival rates and behaviour in marine environments were found to be extremely variable spatially and temporally, with some of the most influential factors being temperature, population, physiological state, and fish size. Salmonids at all life stages were consistently found to swim at an average speed of approximately one body length per second, which likely corresponds with the speed at which transport costs are minimal. We found that there is relatively little research conducted on open-ocean migrating salmonids, and some species (e.g. masu [O. masou] and amago [O. rhodurus]) are underrepresented in the literature. The most common forms of tagging used across life stages were various forms of external tags, coded wire tags, and acoustic tags, however, the majority of studies did not measure tagging/handling effects on the fish, tag loss/failure, or tag detection probabilities when estimating survival. Through the interdisciplinary application of existing and novel technologies, future research examining the behaviour and survival of anadromous salmonids could incorporate important drivers such as oceanography, tagging/handling effects, predation, and physiology.

Studying the reproductive skipping behavior in long-lived birds by adding nest inspection to individual-based data

The frequency at which individuals breed is an important parameter in population, as well as in evolutionary, studies. However, when nonbreeding individuals are absent from the study area, the reproductive skipping is usually confounded with a recapture failure and cannot be estimated directly. Yet, there are situations in which external information may help to estimate reproductive skipping. Such a situation is found with nest-tenacious birds: the fact that an individual is not encountered in its previous nest is a good indication that it must be skipping reproduction. We illustrate here a general probabilistic framework in which we merged the classical individual capture-recapture information with nest-based information to obtain the simultaneous estimate of recapture, survival, reproductive skipping, and within-colony breeding dispersal probabilities using multi-event models. We applied this approach to Cory's Shearwater (Calonectris diomedea), a long-lived burrow-nesting seabird. By comparing results with those obtained from the analysis of the capture-recapture information alone, we showed that the model separates successfully the probabilities of recapture from those of temporal emigration. We found that the probabilities of future reproduction and breeding-site fidelity were lower for individuals temporarily absent from the colony, suggesting a lower intrinsic quality of intermittent breeders. The new probabilistic framework presented here allowed us to refine the estimates of demographic parameters by simply adding nest-based data, a type of information usually collected in the field but never included in the analysis of individual-based data. Our approach also provides a new and flexible way to test hypotheses on temporal emigration and breeding dispersal in longitudinal data.