Age-specific reproduction and survival of individually marked Wood Thrushes, Hylocichla mustelina

Female reproductive aging in seven primate species: Patterns and consequences

Age-related changes in fertility have increasingly been documented in wild animal populations: In many species the youngest and oldest reproducers are disadvantaged relative to prime adults. How do these effects evolve, and what explains their diversity across species? Tackling this question requires detailed data on patterns of age-related reproductive performance in multiple animal species. Here, we compare patterns and consequences of age-related changes in female reproductive performance in seven primate populations that have been subjects of long-term continuous study for 29 to 57 y. We document evidence of age effects on fertility and on offspring performance in most, but not all, of these primate species. Specifically, females of six species showed longer interbirth intervals in the oldest age classes, youngest age classes, or both, and the oldest females also showed relatively fewer completed interbirth intervals. In addition, five species showed markedly lower survival among offspring born to the oldest mothers, and two species showed reduced survival for offspring born to both the youngest and the oldest mothers. In contrast, we found mixed evidence that maternal age affects the age at which daughters first reproduce: Only in muriquis and to some extent in chimpanzees, the only two species with female-biased dispersal, did relatively young mothers produce daughters that tended to have earlier first reproduction. Our findings demonstrate shared patterns as well as contrasts in age-related changes in female fertility across species of nonhuman primates and highlight species-specific behavior and life-history patterns as possible explanations for species-level differences.

Evidence of demographic buffering in an endangered great ape: Social buffering on immature survival and the role of refined sex-age classes on population growth rate

Theoretical and empirical research has shown that increased variability in demographic rates often results in a decline in the population growth rate. In order to reduce the adverse effects of increased variability, life-history theory predicts that demographic rates that contribute disproportionately to population growth should be buffered against environmental variation. To date, evidence of demographic buffering is still equivocal and limited to analyses on a reduced number of age classes (e.g. juveniles and adults), and on single sex models. Here we used Bayesian inference models for age-specific survival and fecundity on a long-term dataset of wild mountain gorillas. We used these estimates to parameterize two-sex, age-specific stochastic population projection models that accounted for the yearly covariation between demographic rates. We estimated the sensitivity of the long-run stochastic population growth rate to reductions in survival and fecundity on ages belonging to nine sex-age classes for survival and three age classes for female fecundity. We found a statistically significant negative linear relationship between the sensitivities and variances of demographic rates, with strong demographic buffering on young adult female survival and low buffering on older female and silverback survival and female fecundity. We found moderate buffering on all immature stages and on prime-age females. Previous research on long-lived slow species has found high buffering of prime-age female survival and low buffering on immature survival and fecundity. Our results suggest that the moderate buffering of the immature stages can be partially due to the mountain gorilla social system and the relative stability of their environment. Our results provide clear support for the demographic buffering hypothesis and its predicted effects on species at the slow end of the slow-fast life-history continuum, but with the surprising outcome of moderate social buffering on the survival of immature stages. We also demonstrate how increasing the number of sex-age classes can greatly improve the detection of demographic buffering in wild populations.

Sexual dimorphism in chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) and human age-specific fertility

Across vertebrates, species with intense male mating competition and high levels of sexual dimorphism in body size generally exhibit dimorphism in age-specific fertility. Compared with females, males show later ages at first reproduction and earlier reproductive senescence because they take longer to attain adult body size and musculature, and maintain peak condition for a limited time. This normally yields a shorter male duration of effective breeding, but this reduction might be attenuated in species that frequently use coalitionary aggression. Here, we present comparative genetic and demographic data on chimpanzees from three long-term study communities (Kanyawara: Kibale National Park, Uganda; Mitumba and Kasekela: Gombe National Park, Tanzania), comprising 581 male risk years and 112 infants, to characterize male age-specific fertility. For comparison, we update estimates from female chimpanzees in the same sites and append a sample of human foragers (the Tanzanian Hadza). Consistent with the idea that aggressive mating competition favors youth, chimpanzee males attained a higher maximum fertility than females, followed by a steeper decline with age. Males did not show a delay in reproduction compared with females, however, as adolescents in both sites successfully reproduced by targeting young, subfecund females, who were less attractive to adults. Gombe males showed earlier reproductive senescence and a shorter duration of effective breeding than Gombe females. By contrast, older males in Kanyawara generally continued to reproduce, apparently by forming coalitions with the alpha. Hadza foragers showed a distinct pattern of sexual dimorphism in age-specific fertility as, compared with women, men gained conceptions later but continued reproducing longer. In sum, both humans and chimpanzees showed sexual dimorphism in age-specific fertility that deviated from predictions drawn from primates with more extreme body size dimorphism, suggesting altered dynamics of male-male competition in the two lineages. In both species, coalitions appear important for extending male reproductive careers.

Survival of a long-lived single island endemic, the Raso lark Alauda razae, in relation to age, fluctuating population and rainfall

Estimating and understanding variation in survival rates is crucial for the management of threatened species, especially those with limited population sizes and/or restricted ranges. Using a capture-resighting dataset covering 2004–2017, we estimate adult survival in the Raso lark Alauda razae, a Critically Endangered single-island Cape Verdean endemic, whose population varied 25-fold during the study. Average annual adult survival was similar for males (0.813 ± 0.011) and females (0.826 ± 0.011) over the period. These values are high for a temperate passerine but not unusual for an insular tropical species like the lark. The oldest bird was recorded 13 years after first ringing. There was strong evidence that survival varied among years (between 0.57 and 0.95), being generally higher in wetter years. Survival, especially of males, was lower when the population was large, but only in drier years. Survival declined with age but there was no evidence that this decline was other than linear. High survival, even in the face of dry conditions, at least when the population is depressed, has probably contributed to the persistence of the species on its 7 km² island home over several centuries.

Reproductive senescence: new perspectives in the wild

According to recent empirical studies, reproductive senescence, the decline in reproductive success with increasing age, seems to be nearly ubiquitous in the wild. However, a clear understanding of the evolutionary causes and consequences of reproductive senescence is still lacking and requires new and integrative approaches. After identifying the sequential and complex nature of female reproductive senescence, we show that the relative contributions of physiological decline and alterations in the efficiency of parental care to reproductive senescence remain unknown and need to be assessed in the light of current evolutionary theories of ageing. We demonstrate that, although reproductive senescence is generally studied only from the female viewpoint, age-specific female reproductive success strongly depends on male-female interactions. Thus, a reduction in male fertilization efficiency with increasing age has detrimental consequences for female fitness. Lastly, we call for investigations of the role of environmental conditions on reproductive senescence, which could provide salient insights into the underlying sex-specific mechanisms of reproductive success. We suggest that embracing such directions should allow building new bridges between reproductive senescence and the study of sperm competition, parental care, mate choice and environmental conditions.

Effects of breeding versus winter habitat loss and fragmentation on the population dynamics of a migratory songbird

Many migratory species are in decline and understanding these declines is challenging because individuals occupy widely divergent and geographically distant habitats during a single year and therefore populations across the range are interconnected in complex ways. Network modeling has been used to show, theoretically, that shifts in migratory connectivity patterns can occur in response to habitat or climate changes and that habitat loss in one region can affect sub-populations in regions that are not directly connected. Here, we use a network model, parameterized by integrating long-term monitoring data with direct tracking of -100 individuals, to explain population trends in the rapidly declining Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) and to predict future trends. Our model suggests that species-level declines in Wood Thrush are driven primarily by tropical deforestation in Central America but that protection of breeding habitat in some regions is necessary to prevent shifts in migratory connectivity and to sustain populations in all breeding regions. The model illustrates how shifts in migratory connectivity may lead to unexpected population declines in key regions. We highlight current knowledge gaps that make modeling full life-cycle population demographics in migratory species challenging but also demonstrate that modeling can inform conservation while these gaps are being filled.

ENSO, nest predation risk, food abundance, and male status fail to explain annual variations in the apparent survival rate of a migratory songbird

Adult mortality can be a major driver of population decline in species whose productivity is relatively low. Yet, little is known about the factors influencing adult survival rates in migratory bird species, nor do we know much about the longer-term effects of habitat disturbance on the fitness of individuals. The Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) is one of the vertebrate species most sensitive to forest management, yet it is still common and widespread. We monitored the fate of 330 colour-banded Ovenbird males in four pairs of 25-ha plots during 9 successive breeding seasons. One plot of each pair was treated through selection harvesting (30-40% basal area removed) during the first winter. We tested the following hypotheses: (1) higher physiological costs in harvested plots as a result of lower food abundance will reduce apparent survival rate (ASR) relative to controls; (2) lower ASR following years with low nest survival and higher probability of renesting; (3) fluctuations in ASR reflecting El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and (4) higher ASR in returning males than in recruits (unbanded immigrants) owing to greater site familiarity in the former. We tested the relative importance of these hypotheses, or combinations thereof, by generating 23 models explaining variation in ASR. The year-dependent model received the most support, showing a 41% decrease in ASR from 2007 to 2014. The important year-to-year variation we observed in ASR (Σw(i) = 0.99) was not explained by variation in nest predation risk nor by ENSO. There was also little evidence for an effect of selection harvesting on ASR of Ovenbird males, despite a slight reduction in lifespan relative to males from control plots (2.7 vs 2.9 years). An avenue worth exploring to explain this intriguing pattern would be to determine whether conditions at migratory stopover sites or in the wintering area of our focal population have gradually worsened over the past decade.

Age-specific responses to spring temperature in a migratory songbird: older females attempt more broods in warmer springs

Increasing global temperature has led to an interest in plasticity in the timing of annual events; however, little is known about the demographic consequences of changing phenology. Annual reproductive success varies significantly among individuals within a population, and some of that variation has to do with the number of broods attempted by reproducing adults. In birds, female age and the timing of reproduction are often predictors of multiple breeding. We hypothesize that double brooding rates may be affected by spring temperature and that the response may vary with female age. We used a long-term reproductive data set for a migratory songbird, the prothonotary warbler (Protonotaria citrea) to assess which factors influence (a) an individual female's probability of double brooding and (b) the annual variation in population-level double brooding rates. We found that older and earlier nesting birds are more likely to double brood, and that there is no evidence for senescence with regard to this trait such that the oldest females were most likely to double brood. Previous experience with double brooding (i.e., whether the female double brooded in the previous year) significantly increased the probability of doing so again. When assessing annual variation in the double brooding rate, we found an interaction between spring temperature and the proportion of older females in the population. Specifically, older females are more likely to double brood in years with warmer springs, but this relationship was not seen for younger females. Previous studies have shown that warmer temperatures lead to earlier and narrower peaks in resources and we hypothesize that these peaks are more available to older and earlier arriving females, enabling them to successfully raise more than one brood in a season. Understanding how different age classes respond to changing environmental conditions will be imperative to managing declining species.

The forms and fitness cost of senescence: age-specific recapture, survival, reproduction, and reproductive value in a wild bird population

Longitudinal studies of senescence accumulate rapidly from natural populations. However, it is largely unknown whether different fitness components senesce in parallel, how reproductive and survival senescence contribute to declines in reproductive value, and how large the fitness cost of senescence is (the difference between the observed reproductive value and the hypothetical reproductive value, if senescence would not occur). We analyzed age-specific survival in great tits Parus major and combined our results with analyses of reproductive senescence to address these issues. Recapture probability of breeding females declined with age, suggesting age-specific increases in skipped or failed breeding and highlighting an important bias that studies of senescence in wild populations should incorporate. Survival probability also declined with age and in parallel with recruit production. Reproductive value decreased 87% between age 1 and age 9 but at a fitness cost of only 4%; the proportion of the contribution of reproductive senescence versus survival senescence to this cost was 0.7. For 11 other species, we estimated fitness costs of senescence of 6%-63% (average: birds, 9%; mammals, 42%), with relative contributions of reproductive senescence of 0.0-0.7 (average: birds, 0.4; mammals, 0.3). We suggest that understanding when and why reproductive and survival senescence differ will help in the identification of proximate mechanisms underlying variation in rates of senescence and its evolution.

Reproductive improvement and senescence in a long-lived bird

Heterogeneity within a population is a pervasive challenge for studies of individual life-histories. Population-level patterns in age-specific reproductive success can be broken down into relative contributions from selective disappearance, selective appearance of individuals into the study population, and average change in performance for survivors (average ontogenetic development). In this article, we provide an exact decomposition. We apply our formula to data on the reproductive performance of a well characterized population of common terns (Sterna hirundo). We show that improvements with age over most of adult life and senescence at old ages are primarily due to a genuine change in the mean among surviving individuals rather than selective disappearance or selective appearance of individuals. Average ontogenetic development accounts for approximately 87% of the overall age-specific population change.