Bottom-up effects drive the dynamic of an Antarctic seabird predator-prey system

Understanding how populations respond to variability in environmental conditions and interspecific interactions is one of the biggest challenges of population ecology, particularly in the context of global change. Although many studies have investigated population responses to climate change, very few have explicitly integrated interspecific relationships when studying these responses. In this study, we aimed to understand the combined effects of interspecific interactions and environmental conditions on the demographic parameters of a prey-predator system of three sympatric seabird populations breeding in Antarctica: the south polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki) and its two main preys during the breeding season, the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) and the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri). We built a two-species integrated population model (IPM) with 31 years of capture-recapture and count data and provided a framework that made it possible to estimate the demographic parameters and abundance of a predator-prey system in a context where capture-recapture data were not available for one species. Our results showed that predator-prey interactions and local environmental conditions differentially affected south polar skuas depending on their breeding state of the previous year. Concerning prey-predator relationships, the number of Adélie penguin breeding pairs showed a positive effect on south polar skua survival and breeding probability, and the number of emperor penguin dead chicks showed a positive effect on the breeding success of south polar skuas. In contrast, there was no evidence for an effect of the number of south polar skuas on the demography of Adélie penguins. We also found an important impact of sea ice conditions on both the dynamics of south polar skuas and Adélie penguins. Our results suggest that this prey-predator system is mostly driven by bottom-up processes and local environmental conditions.

Living in a challenging environment: Monitoring stress ecology by non-destructive methods in an Antarctic seabird

How Antarctic species are facing historical and new stressors remains under-surveyed and risks to wildlife are still largely unknown. Adélie penguins Pygoscelis adeliae are well-known bioindicators and sentinels of Antarctic ecosystem changes, a true canary in the coal mine. Immuno-haematological parameters have been proved to detect stress in wild animals, given their rapid physiological response that allows them tracking environmental changes and thus inferring habitat quality. Here, we investigated variation in Erythrocyte Nuclear Abnormalities (ENAs) and White Blood Cells (WBCs) in penguins from three clustered colonies in the Ross Sea, evaluating immuno-haematological parameters according to geography, breeding stage, and individual penguin characteristics such as sex, body condition and nest quality. Concentrations of mercury (Hg) and stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen (as proxies of the penguin's trophic ecology) were analysed in feathers to investigate the association between stress biomarkers and Hg contamination in Adélie penguins. Colony and breeding stage were not supported as predictors of immuno-haematological parameters. ENAs and WBCs were respectively ∼30 % and ∼20 % higher in male than in female penguins. Body condition influenced WBCs, with penguins in the best condition having a ∼22 % higher level of WBCs than those in the worst condition. Nest position affected the proportion of micronuclei (MNs), with inner-nesting penguins having more than three times the proportion of MNs than penguins nesting in peripheral positions. Heterophils:Lymphocytes (H:L) ratio was not affected by any of the above predictors. Multiple factors acting as stressors are expected to increase prominently in Antarctic wildlife in the near future, therefore extensive monitoring aimed to assess the health status of penguin populations is mandatory.

Delay in Adélie penguin nest occupation restricts parental investment in nest construction and reduces reproductive output

Reproductive success is an important demographic parameter that can be driven by environmental and behavioural factors operating on various spatio-temporal scales. As seabirds breed on land and forage in the ocean, processes occurring in both environments can influence their reproductive success. At various locations around East Antarctica, Adélie penguins' (Pygoscelis adeliae) reproductive success has been negatively linked to extensive sea-ice. In contrast, our study site in the Windmill Islands has limited fast ice present during the breeding season, allowing us to examine drivers of reproductive success under vastly different marine environmental conditions. Here, we examined the reproductive success of 450 Adélie penguin nests over a 10-year period using images obtained from remotely operated cameras. We analysed nest survival in relation to marine and climatic factors, environmental conditions at the camera site and immediately around the nest, and behavioural attributes reflecting parental investment and phenological timing. Our key result was a strong positive association between nest structure and chick survival, particularly when ground moisture and snow cover around the nest were high. Earlier nesting birds were more likely to build bigger nests, although it is unclear whether this is due to more time available to build nests or whether early arrival and high-quality nests are complementary traits. This intrinsic activity is likely to become more important if future predictions of increased snowfall in this region manifest.

Circumpolar assessment of mercury contamination: the Adélie penguin as a bioindicator of Antarctic marine ecosystems

Due to its persistence and potential ecological and health impacts, mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant of major concern that may reach high concentrations even in remote polar oceans. In contrast to the Arctic Ocean, studies documenting Hg contamination in the Southern Ocean are spatially restricted and large-scale monitoring is needed. Here, we present the first circumpolar assessment of Hg contamination in Antarctic marine ecosystems. Specifically, the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) was used as a bioindicator species, to examine regional variation across 24 colonies distributed across the entire Antarctic continent. Mercury was measured on body feathers collected from both adults (n = 485) and chicks (n = 48) between 2005 and 2021. Because penguins' diet represents the dominant source of Hg, feather δ13C and δ15N values were measured as proxies of feeding habitat and trophic position. As expected, chicks had lower Hg concentrations (mean ± SD: 0.22 ± 0.08 μg·g‒1) than adults (0.49 ± 0.23 μg·g‒1), likely because of their shorter bioaccumulation period. In adults, spatial variation in feather Hg concentrations was driven by both trophic ecology and colony location. The highest Hg concentrations were observed in the Ross Sea, possibly because of a higher consumption of fish in the diet compared to other sites (krill-dominated diet). Such large-scale assessments are critical to assess the effectiveness of the Minamata Convention on Mercury. Owing to their circumpolar distribution and their ecological role in Antarctic marine ecosystems, Adélie penguins could be valuable bioindicators for tracking spatial and temporal trends of Hg across Antarctic waters in the future.

Environment-triggered demographic changes cascade and compound to propel a dramatic decline of an Antarctic seabird metapopulation

While seabirds are well-known for making a living under some of the harshest conditions on the planet, their capacity to buffer against unfavourable conditions can be stretched in response to ecosystem change. During population increases, overlap between conspecifics can limit population growth through competition for breeding or feeding resources. What is less well understood is the role that intrinsic processes play during periods of population decline or under a changing environment. We interrogate key demographic parameters and their biophysical drivers to understand the role of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers during a recent near halving of a large Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) metapopulation. The loss of 154,000 breeding birds along the 100-km East Antarctic coastline centred around 63°E over the last decade diverges from a sustained increase over preceding decades and is contrary to recent models that predict a continued increase. The decline was initially triggered by changed environmental conditions: more extensive near-shore sea ice caused a reduction in breeding success. The evidence suggests this decline was exacerbated by feedback processes driving an inverse density-dependent decrease in fledgling survival in response to smaller cohort size. It appears that the old adage of safety in numbers may shape the fledgling penguins' chances of survival and, if compromised over multiple years, could exacerbate difficulties during population decline or if feedback processes arise. The likely interplay between demographic parameters meant that conditions were more unfavourable and negative effects more rapid than would be expected if demographic processes acted in isolation or independently. Failure to capture both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers in predictive population models may mean that the real impacts of climate change on species' populations are more severe than projections would lead us to believe. These results improve our understanding of population regulation during periods of rapid decline for long-lived marine species.

Mare incognita: Adélie penguins foraging in newly exposed habitat after calving of the Nansen Ice Shelf

Rapid environmental changes can dramatically and durably affect the animal's foraging behavior. In the Ross Sea (Antarctica), calving of the Nansen Ice Shelf in 2016 opened a newly accessible marine area of 214 km². In this study, we examined the foraging behavior of Adélie penguins from the nearby Inexpressible Island in December 2018, by tracking 27 penguins during their at-sea trips using GPS, depth and video loggers. The penguins mainly foraged within 88.2 ± 42.9 km of their colony, for 23.4 ± 6.8 h. Five penguins headed south to the newly exposed habitat along the Nansen Ice Shelf, whereas 22 penguins exploited previously available foraging areas. There was no significant difference in any of the foraging trip or diving parameters between the two penguin groups; however, in the calved region the penguins were diving into shallow areas more often than did the other penguins. These results show that Adélie penguins on Inexpressible Island had explored the newly exposed area after calving. We conclude that the penguins respond to newly available habitat following stochastic environmental events, either through information sharing at the colony, and/or by balancing prey availability per capita across the foraging sites. Considering that this penguin breeding area is under investigation for the establishment of an Antarctic Specially Protected Area (ASPA), the results of this study may provide insights for evaluating the ecological importance of this area and formulating an ASPA management plan for conservation.

Horizontal-vertical movement relationships: Adélie penguins forage continuously throughout provisioning trips

BACKGROUND

Diving marine predators forage in a three-dimensional environment, adjusting their horizontal and vertical movement behaviour in response to environmental conditions and the spatial distribution of prey. Expectations regarding horizontal-vertical movements are derived from optimal foraging theories, however, inconsistent empirical findings across a range of taxa suggests these behavioural assumptions are not universally applicable.

METHODS

Here, we examined how changes in horizontal movement trajectories corresponded with diving behaviour and marine environmental conditions for a ubiquitous Southern Ocean predator, the Adélie penguin. Integrating extensive telemetry-based movement and environmental datasets for chick-rearing Adélie penguins at Béchervaise Island, we tested the relationships between horizontal move persistence (continuous scale indicating low ['resident'] to high ['directed'] movement autocorrelation), vertical dive effort and environmental variables.

RESULTS

Penguins dived continuously over the course of their foraging trips and lower horizontal move persistence corresponded with less intense foraging activity, likely indicative of resting behaviour. This challenges the traditional interpretation of horizontal-vertical movement relationships based on optimal foraging models, which assumes increased residency within an area translates to increased foraging activity. Movement was also influenced by different environmental conditions during the two stages of chick-rearing: guard and crèche. These differences highlight the strong seasonality of foraging habitat for chick-rearing Adélie penguins at Béchervaise Island.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings advance our understanding of the foraging behaviour for this marine predator and demonstrates the importance of integrating spatial location and behavioural data before inferring habitat use.

Emerging evidence of resource limitation in an Antarctic seabird metapopulation after 6 decades of sustained population growth

The influence of resource limitation on spatio-temporal population dynamics is a fundamental theme in ecology and the concepts of carrying capacity, density dependence and population synchrony are central to this theme. The life history characteristics of seabirds, which include use of disjunct patches of breeding habitat, high coloniality during breeding, strong philopatry, and central-place foraging, make this group well suited to studying this paradigm. Here, we investigate whether density-dependent processes are starting to limit population growth in the Adélie penguin metapopulation breeding in the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica, after 6 decades of growth. Our finding that the regional growth rate has slowed in recent decades, and that growth is slowing differentially across local populations as availability of breeding habitat and possibly food resources decrease, supports the notion of density-dependent regulation. Our observation of the first new colonisation of a breeding patch in a half-century of population growth by this highly philopatric species is further evidence for this. Given these emerging patterns of spatio-temporal population dynamics, this metapopulation may be at a point where the rate of change in density-dependent processes and rare events such as colonisations accelerates into the future, potentially providing new insights into spatio-temporal metapopulation dynamics of a long-lived species over a short time-frame. Continued long-term study of populations experiencing these circumstances provides an opportunity to expedite advances in understanding metapopulation processes. Our study highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity and the mosaic of abiotic and biotic features of landscapes and seascapes in shaping species' metapopulation dynamics.

Adélie penguins foraging consistency and site fidelity are conditioned by breeding status and environmental conditions

There is a growing interest in studying consistency and site fidelity of individuals to assess, respectively, how individual behaviour shapes the population response to environmental changes, and to highlight the critical habitats needed by species. In Antarctica, the foraging activity of central place foragers like Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) is constrained by the sea-ice cover during the breeding season. We estimated the population-level repeatability in foraging trip parameters and sea-ice conditions encountered by birds across successive trips over several years, and we examined their foraging site fidelity linked to sea-ice concentrations throughout the chick-rearing season. Penguins' foraging activity was repeatable despite varying annual sea-ice conditions. Birds' site fidelity is constrained by both sea-ice conditions around the colony that limit movements and resources availability, and also behavioural repeatability of individuals driven by phenological constraints. Adélie penguins favoured sea-ice concentrations between 20-30%, as these facilitate access to open water while opening multiple patches for exploration in restricted areas in case of prey depletion. When the sea-ice concentration became greater than 30%, foraging site fidelity decreased and showed higher variability, while it increased again after 60%. Between two trips, the foraging site fidelity remained high when sea-ice concentration changed by ± 10% but showed greater variability when sea-ice concentrations differed on a larger range. In summary, Adélie penguins specialize their foraging behaviour during chick-rearing according to sea-ice conditions to enhance their reproductive success. The balance between being consistent under favourable environmental conditions vs. being flexible under more challenging conditions may be key to improving foraging efficiency and reproductive success to face fast environmental changes.

Sea ice predicts long-term trends in Adélie penguin population growth, but not annual fluctuations: Results from a range-wide multiscale analysis

Understanding the scales at which environmental variability affects populations is critical for projecting population dynamics and species distributions in rapidly changing environments. Here we used a multilevel Bayesian analysis of range-wide survey data for Adélie penguins to characterize multidecadal and annual effects of sea ice on population growth. We found that mean sea ice concentration at breeding colonies (i.e., "prevailing" environmental conditions) had robust nonlinear effects on multidecadal population trends and explained over 85% of the variance in mean population growth rates among sites. In contrast, despite considerable year-to-year fluctuations in abundance at most breeding colonies, annual sea ice fluctuations often explained less than 10% of the temporal variance in population growth rates. Our study provides an understanding of the spatially and temporally dynamic environmental factors that define the range limits of Adélie penguins, further establishing this iconic marine predator as a true sea ice obligate and providing a firm basis for projection under scenarios of future climate change. Yet, given the weak effects of annual sea ice relative to the large unexplained variance in year-to-year growth rates, the ability to generate useful short-term forecasts of Adélie penguin breeding abundance will be extremely limited. Our approach provides a powerful framework for linking short- and longer term population processes to environmental conditions that can be applied to any species, facilitating a richer understanding of ecological predictability and sensitivity to global change.

Foraging behavior links sea ice to breeding success in Antarctic penguins

Population trends and breeding success variability of Adélie penguins, a bioindicator of Antarctic environments, have been attributed to changing sea-ice extents; however, causative mechanisms remain unclear. By electronically tagging 175 penguins in four seasons with contrasting sea-ice conditions, we show that ice-free environments enhance, not deteriorate, foraging efficiencies and breeding success. In an ice-free season, penguins traveled by swimming rather than walking, leading to larger foraging areas, shorter trip durations, and lower energy expenditure than three ice-covered seasons. Freed from the need to find cracks for breathing, dive durations decreased, and more krill were captured per unit dive time, which may also be associated with phytoplankton blooms and increased krill density in the sunlit ice-free water. Consequently, adult body mass, chick growth rates, and breeding success increased. Our findings explain the regional population trends and demonstrate a key link among sea ice, foraging behavior, and reproductive success in this iconic species.

Applying science to pressing conservation needs for penguins

More than half of the world's 18 penguin species are declining. We, the Steering Committee of the International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission Penguin Specialist Group, determined that the penguin species in most critical need of conservation action are African penguin (Spheniscus demersus), Galápagos penguin (Spheniscus mendiculus), and Yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes). Due to small or rapidly declining populations, these species require immediate scientific collaboration and policy intervention. We also used a pairwise-ranking approach to prioritize research and conservation needs for all penguins. Among the 12 cross-taxa research areas we identified, we ranked quantifying population trends, estimating demographic rates, forecasting environmental patterns of change, and improving the knowledge of fisheries interactions as the highest priorities. The highest ranked conservation needs were to enhance marine spatial planning, improve stakeholder engagement, and develop disaster-management and species-specific action plans. We concurred that, to improve the translation of science into effective conservation for penguins, the scientific community and funding bodies must recognize the importance of and support long-term research; research on and conservation of penguins must expand its focus to include the nonbreeding season and juvenile stage; marine reserves must be designed at ecologically appropriate spatial and temporal scales; and communication between scientists and decision makers must be improved with the help of individual scientists and interdisciplinary working groups.

Arctic seabirds and shrinking sea ice: egg analyses reveal the importance of ice-derived resources

In the Arctic, sea-ice plays a central role in the functioning of marine food webs and its rapid shrinking has large effects on the biota. It is thus crucial to assess the importance of sea-ice and ice-derived resources to Arctic marine species. Here, we used a multi-biomarker approach combining Highly Branched Isoprenoids (HBIs) with δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N to evaluate how much Arctic seabirds rely on sea-ice derived resources during the pre-laying period, and if changes in sea-ice extent and duration affect their investment in reproduction. Eggs of thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) and northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) were collected in the Canadian Arctic during four years of highly contrasting ice conditions, and analysed for HBIs, isotopic (carbon and nitrogen) and energetic composition. Murres heavily relied on ice-associated prey, and sea-ice was beneficial for this species which produced larger and more energy-dense eggs during icier years. In contrast, fulmars did not exhibit any clear association with sympagic communities and were not impacted by changes in sea ice. Murres, like other species more constrained in their response to sea-ice variations, therefore appear more sensitive to changes and may become the losers of future climate shifts in the Arctic, unlike more resilient species such as fulmars.

Variable sea-ice conditions influence trophic dynamics in an Arctic community of marine top predators

Sea-ice coverage is a key abiotic driver of annual environmental conditions in Arctic marine ecosystems and could be a major factor affecting seabird trophic dynamics. Using stable isotope ratios of carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) in eggs of thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia), northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis), glaucous gulls (Larus hyperboreus), and black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla), we investigated the trophic ecology of prebreeding seabirds nesting at Prince Leopold Island, Nunavut, and its relationship with sea-ice conditions. The seabird community of Prince Leopold Island had a broader isotopic niche during lower sea-ice conditions, thus having a more divergent diet, while the opposite was observed during years with more extensive sea-ice conditions. Species' trophic position was influenced by sea ice; in years of lower sea-ice concentration, gulls and kittiwakes foraged at higher trophic levels while the opposite was observed for murres and fulmars. For murres and fulmars over a longer time series, there was no evidence of the effect of sea-ice concentration on species' isotopic niche. Results suggest a high degree of adaptation in populations of high Arctic species that cope with harsh and unpredictable conditions. Such different responses of the community isotopic niche also show that the effect of variable sea-ice conditions, despite being subtle at the species level, might have larger implications when considering the trophic ecology of the larger seabird community. Species-specific responses in foraging patterns, in particular trophic position in relation to sea ice, are critical to understanding effects of ecosystem change predicted for a changing climate.

Nonbreeder birds at colonies display qualitatively similar seasonal mass change patterns as breeders

The difficulty in studying nonbreeding birds means that little is known about them or their resource requirements, despite forming a large and significant component of a population. One way to assess food requirements is to examine changes in body mass, because it indicates the amount of food acquired. In terms of body mass changes, our expectation is that nonbreeders will either (a) be in poorer condition than the breeders which potentially explains why they do not breed or (b) remain at a stable higher mass as they are unconstrained by the physiological costs associated with rearing chicks. Here, we interrogate body mass datasets of breeding and nonbreeding birds of two penguin species to assess these predictions and determine whether differences in mass exist between these two groups throughout the breeding season. The first dataset is from a wild Adélie penguin population, where bird mass was recorded automatically and breeding status determined from a resighting program. A second population of captive gentoo penguins were weighed regularly each breeding season. We demonstrate that although there were times in each year when breeders were heavier than their nonbreeding counterparts for both populations, the mass changes showed qualitatively similar patterns throughout the breeding season irrespective of breeding status. Heavier breeders at times during the breeding season are not unexpected but the overall similar pattern of mass change irrespective of breeding status is in contrast to expectations. It appears that breeding status per se and the constraints that breeding places on birds are not the only driver of changes in mass throughout the breeding season and, although not explicitly studied here, the role of hormones in driving changes in appetite could be key to explain these results. These results present a significant step toward understanding food requirements of nonbreeders in avian populations.

Reproductive performance and diving behaviour share a common sea-ice concentration optimum in Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae)

The Southern Ocean is currently experiencing major environmental changes, including in sea-ice cover. Such changes strongly influence ecosystem structure and functioning and affect the survival and reproduction of predators such as seabirds. These effects are likely mediated by reduced availability of food resources. As such, seabirds are reliable eco-indicators of environmental conditions in the Antarctic region. Here, based on 9 years of sea-ice data, we found that the breeding success of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) reaches a peak at intermediate sea-ice cover (ca. 20%). We further examined the effects of sea-ice conditions on the foraging activity of penguins, measured at multiple scales from individual dives to foraging trips. Analysis of temporal organisation of dives, including fractal and bout analyses, revealed an increasingly consistent behaviour during years with extensive sea-ice cover. The relationship between several dive parameters and sea-ice cover in the foraging area appears to be quadratic. In years of low and high sea-ice cover, individuals adjusted their diving effort by generally diving deeper, more frequently and by resting at the surface between dives for shorter periods of time than in years with intermediate sea-ice cover. Our study therefore suggests that sea-ice cover is likely to affect the reproductive performance of Adélie penguins through its effects on foraging behaviour, as breeding success and most diving parameters share a common optimum. Some years, however, deviated from this general trend, suggesting that other factors (e.g. precipitation during the breeding season) might sometimes become preponderant over the sea-ice effects on breeding and foraging performance. Our study highlights the value of monitoring fitness parameters and individual behaviour concomitantly over the long-term to better characterize optimal environmental conditions and potential resilience of wildlife. Such an approach is crucial if we want to anticipate the effects of environmental change on Antarctic penguin populations.

Population response of an apex Antarctic consumer to its prey and climate fluctuations

A fundamental endeavor in population ecology is to identify the drivers of population dynamics. A few empirical studies included the effect of prey abundance when investigating simultaneously the effects of density-dependence and climate factors on marine top-predator population dynamics. Our aim was to unravel the mechanisms forcing population dynamics of an apex consumer seabird, the south polar skua, using long-term climatic and population time series of the consumer and its prey in Terre Adélie, Antarctica. Influences of density-dependence, climatic factors, and prey abundance with lag effects were tested on the breeding population dynamics with a Bayesian multi-model inference approach. We evidenced a negative trend in breeding population growth rate when density increased. Lagged effects of sea-ice concentration and air temperature in spring and a contemporary effect of prey resources were supported. Remarkably, results outline a reverse response of the south polar skua and one of its main preys to the same environmental factor (sea-ice concentration), suggesting a strong link between skua and penguin dynamics. The causal mechanisms may involve competition for food and space through territorial behavior as well as local climate and prey availability, which probably operate on breeding parameters (breeding propensity, breeding success, or recruitment) rather than on adult survival. Our results provide new insights on the relative importance of factors forcing the population dynamics of an apex consumer including density-dependence, local climate conditions, and direct and indirect effects of prey abundance.

Time-lapse imagery of Adélie penguins reveals differential winter strategies and breeding site occupation

Polar seabirds adopt different over-wintering strategies to survive and build condition during the critical winter period. Penguin species either reside at the colony during the winter months or migrate long distances. Tracking studies and survey methods have revealed differences in winter migration routes among penguin species and colonies, dependent on both biotic and abiotic factors present. However, scan sampling methods are rarely used to reveal non-breeding behaviors during winter and little is known about presence at the colony site over this period. Here we show that Adélie penguins on the Yalour Islands in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) are present year-round at the colony and undergo a mid-winter peak in abundance during winter. We found a negative relationship between daylight hours and penguin abundance when either open water or compact ice conditions were present, suggesting that penguins return to the breeding colony when visibility is lowest for at-sea foraging and when either extreme low or high levels of sea ice exist offshore. In contrast, Adélie penguins breeding in East Antarctica were not observed at the colonies during winter, suggesting that Adélie penguins undergo differential winter strategies in the marginal ice zone on the WAP compared to those in East Antarctica. These results demonstrate that cameras can successfully monitor wildlife year-round in areas that are largely inaccessible during winter.

The impact of sea ice conditions on breeding decisions is modulated by body condition in an arctic partial capital breeder

Determining how environmental conditions interact with individual intrinsic properties is important for unravelling the underlying mechanisms that drive variation in reproductive decisions among migratory species. We investigated the influence of sea ice conditions and body condition at arrival on the breeding propensity, i.e. the decision to reproduce or not within a single breeding season, and timing of laying in migrating common eiders (Somateria mollissima) breeding in the Arctic. Using Radarsat satellite images acquired from 2002 to 2013, we estimated the proportion of open water in the intertidal zone in early summer to track the availability of potential foraging areas for pre-breeding females. Timing of ice-breakup varied by up to 20 days across years and showed strong relationship with both breeding propensity and the timing of laying of eiders: fewer pre-breeding individuals were resighted nesting in the colony and laying was also delayed in years with late ice-breakup. Interestingly, the effect of sea ice dynamics on reproduction was modulated by the state of individuals at arrival on the breeding grounds: females arriving in low condition were more affected by a late ice-breakup. Open water accessibility in early summer, a likely proxy of food availability, is thus crucial for reproductive decisions in a (partial) capital breeder. Our predictive capacity in determining how Arctic-breeding seabirds respond to changes in environmental conditions will require incorporating such cross-seasonal cumulative effects.

Proliferation of East Antarctic Adélie penguins in response to historical deglaciation

Background

Major, long-term environmental changes are projected in the Southern Ocean and these are likely to have impacts for marine predators such as the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae). Decadal monitoring studies have provided insight into the short-term environmental sensitivities of Adélie penguin populations, particularly to sea ice changes. However, given the long-term nature of projected climate change, it is also prudent to consider the responses of populations to environmental change over longer time scales. We investigated the population trajectory of Adélie penguins during the last glacial-interglacial transition to determine how the species was affected by climate warming over millennia. We focussed our study on East Antarctica, which is home to 30 % of the global population of Adélie penguins.

Methods

Using mitochondrial DNA from extant colonies, we reconstructed the population trend of Adélie penguins in East Antarctica over the past 22,000 years using an extended Bayesian skyline plot method. To determine the relationship of East Antarctic Adélie penguins with populations elsewhere in Antarctica we constructed a phylogeny using mitochondrial DNA sequences.

Results

We found that the Adélie penguin population expanded 135-fold from approximately 14,000 years ago. The population growth was coincident with deglaciation in East Antarctica and, therefore, an increase in ice-free ground suitable for Adélie penguin nesting. Our phylogenetic analysis indicated that East Antarctic Adélie penguins share a common ancestor with Adélie penguins from the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Arc, with an estimated age of 29,000 years ago, in the midst of the last glacial period. This finding suggests that extant colonies in East Antarctica, the Scotia Arc and the Antarctic Peninsula were founded from a single glacial refuge.

Conclusions

While changes in sea ice conditions are a critical driver of Adélie penguin population success over decadal and yearly timescales, deglaciation appears to have been the key driver of population change over millennia. This suggests that environmental drivers of population trends over thousands of years may differ to drivers over years or decades, highlighting the need to consider millennial-scale trends alongside contemporary data for the forecasting of species’ abundance and distribution changes under future climate change scenarios.

Spatially Extensive Standardized Surveys Reveal Widespread, Multi-Decadal Increase in East Antarctic Adélie Penguin Populations

Seabirds are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because they integrate across changes in the lower trophic levels and the physical environment. Signals from this key group of species can indicate broad scale impacts or response to environmental change. Recent studies of penguin populations, the most commonly abundant Antarctic seabirds in the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea, have demonstrated that physical changes in Antarctic marine environments have profound effects on biota at high trophic levels. Large populations of the circumpolar-breeding Adélie penguin occur in East Antarctica, but direct, standardized population data across much of this vast coastline have been more limited than in other Antarctic regions. We combine extensive new population survey data, new population estimation methods, and re-interpreted historical survey data to assess decadal-scale change in East Antarctic Adélie penguin breeding populations. We show that, in contrast to the west Antarctic Peninsula and western Ross Sea where breeding populations have decreased or shown variable trends over the last 30 years, East Antarctic regional populations have almost doubled in abundance since the 1980’s and have been increasing since the earliest counts in the 1960’s. The population changes are associated with five-year lagged changes in the physical environment, suggesting that the changing environment impacts primarily on the pre-breeding age classes. East Antarctic marine ecosystems have been subject to a number of changes over the last 50 years which may have influenced Adélie penguin population growth, including decadal-scale climate variation, an inferred mid-20th century sea-ice contraction, and early-to-mid 20^th century exploitation of fish and whale populations.

Extreme ecological response of a seabird community to unprecedented sea ice cover

Climate change has been predicted to reduce Antarctic sea ice but, instead, sea ice surrounding Antarctica has expanded over the past 30 years, albeit with contrasted regional changes. Here we report a recent extreme event in sea ice conditions in East Antarctica and investigate its consequences on a seabird community. In early 2014, the Dumont d'Urville Sea experienced the highest magnitude sea ice cover (76.8%) event on record (1982-2013: range 11.3-65.3%; mean±95% confidence interval: 27.7% (23.1-32.2%)). Catastrophic effects were detected in the breeding output of all sympatric seabird species, with a total failure for two species. These results provide a new view crucial to predictive models of species abundance and distribution as to how extreme sea ice events might impact an entire community of top predators in polar marine ecosystems in a context of expanding sea ice in eastern Antarctica.

Arctic warming: nonlinear impacts of sea-ice and glacier melt on seabird foraging

Arctic climate change has profound impacts on the cryosphere, notably via shrinking sea-ice cover and retreating glaciers, and it is essential to evaluate and forecast the ecological consequences of such changes. We studied zooplankton-feeding little auks (Alle alle), a key sentinel species of the Arctic, at their northernmost breeding site in Franz-Josef Land (80°N), Russian Arctic. We tested the hypothesis that little auks still benefit from pristine arctic environmental conditions in this remote area. To this end, we analysed remote sensing data on sea-ice and coastal glacier dynamics collected in our study area across 1979-2013. Further, we recorded little auk foraging behaviour using miniature electronic tags attached to the birds in the summer of 2013, and compared it with similar data collected at three localities across the Atlantic Arctic. We also compared current and historical data on Franz-Josef Land little auk diet, morphometrics and chick growth curves. Our analyses reveal that summer sea-ice retreated markedly during the last decade, leaving the Franz-Josef Land archipelago virtually sea-ice free each summer since 2005. This had a profound impact on little auk foraging, which lost their sea-ice-associated prey. Concomitantly, large coastal glaciers retreated rapidly, releasing large volumes of melt water. Zooplankton is stunned by cold and osmotic shock at the boundary between glacier melt and coastal waters, creating new foraging hotspots for little auks. Birds therefore switched from foraging at distant ice-edge localities, to highly profitable feeding at glacier melt-water fronts within <5 km of their breeding site. Through this behavioural plasticity, little auks maintained their chick growth rates, but showed a 4% decrease in adult body mass. Our study demonstrates that arctic cryosphere changes may have antagonistic ecological consequences on coastal trophic flow. Such nonlinear responses complicate modelling exercises of current and future polar ecosystem dynamics.

Climate change and Southern Ocean ecosystems I: how changes in physical habitats directly affect marine biota

Antarctic and Southern Ocean (ASO) marine ecosystems have been changing for at least the last 30 years, including in response to increasing ocean temperatures and changes in the extent and seasonality of sea ice; the magnitude and direction of these changes differ between regions around Antarctica that could see populations of the same species changing differently in different regions. This article reviews current and expected changes in ASO physical habitats in response to climate change. It then reviews how these changes may impact the autecology of marine biota of this polar region: microbes, zooplankton, salps, Antarctic krill, fish, cephalopods, marine mammals, seabirds, and benthos. The general prognosis for ASO marine habitats is for an overall warming and freshening, strengthening of westerly winds, with a potential pole-ward movement of those winds and the frontal systems, and an increase in ocean eddy activity. Many habitat parameters will have regionally specific changes, particularly relating to sea ice characteristics and seasonal dynamics. Lower trophic levels are expected to move south as the ocean conditions in which they are currently found move pole-ward. For Antarctic krill and finfish, the latitudinal breadth of their range will depend on their tolerance of warming oceans and changes to productivity. Ocean acidification is a concern not only for calcifying organisms but also for crustaceans such as Antarctic krill; it is also likely to be the most important change in benthic habitats over the coming century. For marine mammals and birds, the expected changes primarily relate to their flexibility in moving to alternative locations for food and the energetic cost of longer or more complex foraging trips for those that are bound to breeding colonies. Few species are sufficiently well studied to make comprehensive species-specific vulnerability assessments possible. Priorities for future work are discussed.

Trends in the breeding population of Adélie penguins in the Ross Sea, 1981-2012: a coincidence of climate and resource extraction effects

Measurements of the size of Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colonies of the southern Ross Sea are among the longest biologic time series in the Antarctic. We present an assessment of recent annual variation and trends in abundance and growth rates of these colonies, adding to the published record not updated for more than two decades. High angle oblique aerial photographic surveys of colonies were acquired and penguins counted for the breeding seasons 1981–2012. In the last four years the numbers of Adélie penguins in the Ross and Beaufort Island colonies (southern Ross Sea metapopulation) reached their highest levels since aerial counts began in 1981. Results indicated that 855,625 pairs of Adélie penguins established breeding territories in the western Ross Sea, with just over a quarter (28%) of those in the southern portion, constituting a semi-isolated metapopulation (three colonies on Ross Island, one on nearby Beaufort Island). The southern population had a negative per capita growth rate of −0.019 during 1981–2000, followed by a positive per capita growth rate of 0.067 for 2001–2012. Colony growth rates for this metapopulation showed striking synchrony through time, indicating that large-scale factors influenced their annual growth. In contrast to the increased colony sizes in the southern population, the patterns of change among colonies of the northern Ross Sea were difficult to characterize. Trends were similar to southern colonies until the mid-1990s, after which the signal was lost owing to significantly reduced frequency of surveys. Both climate factors and recovery of whale populations likely played roles in the trends among southern colonies until 2000, after which depletion of another trophic competitor, the Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni), may explain the sharp increasing trend evident since then.

Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins

In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise.

Adélie penguin population diet monitoring by analysis of food DNA in scats

The Adélie penguin is the most important animal currently used for ecosystem monitoring in the Southern Ocean. The diet of this species is generally studied by visual analysis of stomach contents; or ratios of isotopes of carbon and nitrogen incorporated into the penguin from its food. There are significant limitations to the information that can be gained from these methods. We evaluated population diet assessment by analysis of food DNA in scats as an alternative method for ecosystem monitoring with Adélie penguins as an indicator species. Scats were collected at four locations, three phases of the breeding cycle, and in four different years. A novel molecular diet assay and bioinformatics pipeline based on nuclear small subunit ribosomal RNA gene (SSU rDNA) sequencing was used to identify prey DNA in 389 scats. Analysis of the twelve population sample sets identified spatial and temporal dietary change in Adélie penguin population diet. Prey diversity was found to be greater than previously thought. Krill, fish, copepods and amphipods were the most important food groups, in general agreement with other Adélie penguin dietary studies based on hard part or stable isotope analysis. However, our DNA analysis estimated that a substantial portion of the diet was gelatinous groups such as jellyfish and comb jellies. A range of other prey not previously identified in the diet of this species were also discovered. The diverse prey identified by this DNA-based scat analysis confirms that the generalist feeding of Adélie penguins makes them a useful indicator species for prey community composition in the coastal zone of the Southern Ocean. Scat collection is a simple and non-invasive field sampling method that allows DNA-based estimation of prey community differences at many temporal and spatial scales and provides significant advantages over alternative diet analysis approaches.

Elevated corticosterone levels decrease reproductive output of chick-rearing Adélie penguins but do not affect chick mass at fledging

Study of physiological mechanisms can help us to understand how animals respond to changing environmental conditions. In particular, stress hormones (i.e. glucocorticoids, such as corticosterone) are described as mediating resource allocation, allowing animals to adjust their physiology and behaviour to predictable and unpredictable changes in the environment. In this study, we investigated the effects of an experimental increase in baseline corticosterone levels on the breeding effort and the reproductive output of chick-rearing male Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae). The number of chicks per nest, their body mass, and their size were monitored throughout the study. Direct observations allowed measurement of the time spent foraging at sea and caring for the young on the nest. At the end of the treatment, blood samples were collected for isotope analysis. Although all birds raised at least one chick, reproductive output was decreased by 42% in corticosterone-treated birds compared with control birds. The increase in corticosterone levels during the guard stage did not affect the mass of surviving chicks or the brood mass at fledging. Corticosterone-treated males spent on average 21% more time at the nest than control birds. However, the duration of foraging trips was similar between both groups. In addition, the similarity of isotopic signatures suggests that both groups foraged at similar locations and ingested the same prey species. The detailed on-land behaviour of birds should be examined in further studies to clarify the possible links between corticosterone levels, brooding time, and reproductive output. Understanding the relationships between glucocorticoids, fitness, and ultimately population dynamics is fundamental to enabling conservation physiology as a discipline to be successful in helping to manage species of conservation concern.

Adélie penguin survival: age structure, temporal variability and environmental influences

The driving factors of survival, a key demographic process, have been particularly challenging to study, especially for winter migratory species such as the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae). While winter environmental conditions clearly influence Antarctic seabird survival, it has been unclear to which environmental features they are most likely to respond. Here, we examine the influence of environmental fluctuations, broad climatic conditions and the success of the breeding season prior to winter on annual survival of an Adélie penguin population using mark-recapture models based on penguin tag and resight data over a 16-year period. This analysis required an extension to the basic Cormack-Jolly-Seber model by incorporating age structure in recapture and survival sub-models. By including model covariates, we show that survival of older penguins is primarily related to the amount and concentration of ice present in their winter foraging grounds. In contrast, fledgling and yearling survival depended on other factors in addition to the physical marine environment and outcomes of the previous breeding season, but we were unable to determine what these were. The relationship between sea-ice and survival differed with penguin age: extensive ice during the return journey to breeding colonies was detrimental to survival for the younger penguins, whereas either too little or too much ice (between 15 and 80% cover) in the winter foraging grounds was detrimental for adults. Our results demonstrate that predictions of Adélie penguin survival can be improved by taking into account penguin age, prior breeding conditions and environmental features.

Nonlinear effects of winter sea ice on the survival probabilities of Adélie penguins

The population dynamics of Antarctic seabirds are influenced by variations in winter sea ice extent and persistence; however, the type of relationship differs according to the region and the demographic parameter considered. We used annual presence/absence data obtained from 1,138 individually marked birds to study the influence of environmental and individual characteristics on the survival of Adélie penguins Pygoscelis adeliae at Edmonson Point (Ross Sea, Antarctica) between 1994 and 2005. About 25% of 600 birds marked as chicks were reobserved at the natal colony. The capture and survival rates of Adélie penguins at this colony increased with the age of individuals, and five age classes were identified for both parameters. Mean adult survival was 0.85 (SE = 0.01), and no effect of sex on survival was evident. Breeding propensity, as measured by adult capture rates, was close to one, indicating a constant breeding effort through time. Temporal variations in survival were best explained by a quadratic relationship with winter sea ice extent anomalies in the Ross Sea, suggesting that for this region optimal conditions are intermediate between too much and too little winter sea ice. This is likely the result of a balance between suitable wintering habitat and food availability. Survival rates were not correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index. Low adult survival after a season characterized by severe environmental conditions at breeding but favorable conditions during winter suggested an additional mortality mediated by the reproductive effort. Adélie penguins are sensitive indicators of environmental changes in the Antarctic, and the results from this study provide insights into regional responses of this species to variability in winter sea ice habitat.