Predicted responses of invasive mammal communities to climate-related changes in mast frequency in forest ecosystems

Quantifying climate change impacts emphasises the importance of managing regional threats in the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin

Climate change is a global issue with effects that are difficult to manage at a regional scale. Yet more often than not climate factors are just some of multiple stressors affecting species on a population level. Non-climatic factors—especially those of anthropogenic origins—may play equally important roles with regard to impacts on species and are often more feasible to address. Here we assess the influence of climate change on population trends of the endangered Yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes) over the last 30 years, using a Bayesian model. Sea surface temperature (SST) proved to be the dominating factor influencing survival of both adult birds and fledglings. Increasing SST since the mid-1990s was accompanied by a reduction in survival rates and population decline. The population model showed that 33% of the variation in population numbers could be explained by SST alone, significantly increasing pressure on the penguin population. Consequently, the population becomes less resilient to non-climate related impacts, such as fisheries interactions, habitat degradation and human disturbance. However, the extent of the contribution of these factors to declining population trends is extremely difficult to assess principally due to the absence of quantifiable data, creating a discussion bias towards climate variables, and effectively distracting from non-climate factors that can be managed on a regional scale to ensure the viability of the population.

Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review

Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species-study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians.

A review of biodiversity outcomes from possum-focused pest control in New Zealand

Worldwide, introduced vertebrate pests impact primary production, native biodiversity, and human health. In New Zealand, extensive pest control (~10 million ha) is undertaken to protect native biota and to prevent losses to the primary sector from wildlife vectors of bovine tuberculosis (TB), primarily possums (Trichosurus vulpecula). Control is conducted by TBfree New Zealand and by conservation agencies. Remote, forested terrain is treated using the toxin 1080 via aerial delivery in bait with a return time of ~5 years. Ground-based control is conducted annually using traps and/or poison bait. Possums are controlled to very low abundance by these operations. Aerial 1080 is effective against another forest-dwelling vertebrate pest, the ship rat (Rattus rattus). Possum control has reduced TB rates, but collateral benefits for native biodiversity have not been quantified, making it difficult to demonstrate a return on investment. We review information from 47 accounts of responses of native biota to possum control. Of these, 60% quantified responses to aerial 1080; the remainder were ground-based. Possum control benefited vegetation by increasing foliage and fruit production, and by reducing tree mortality. Controlling ship rats and possums together improved bird populations, but rats recovered rapidly and long-term outcomes for rat-vulnerable birds are unknown.Large-bodied invertebrates also benefited from extensive pest control. We conducted a meta-analysis of 84 response measures from 35 of these 47 studies in order to provide a quantitative assessment of these findings. The analysis demonstrated that both ground and aerial control of this invasive pest in New Zealand has provided substantial collateral benefits for native biota. Few studies have taken advantage of decades of extensive pest control in New Zealand to monitor ecosystem-level outcomes, which have received only short-term attention thus far. Non-treatment experimental controls and replicate sites that enable validated assessments of outcomes for native biota are vital. Future studies would benefit from a standardised set of biodiversity indicators from a range of taxonomic and functional groupings, and from standardising experimental designs so individual studies can contribute to future meta-analyses, to strengthen the evidence base for the impacts of invasive pests on native biota in New Zealand and worldwide.

Climate-based models for pulsed resources improve predictability of consumer population dynamics: outbreaks of house mice in forest ecosystems

Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts) are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (ΔT) for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer-resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus) outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ΔT method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ΔT on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year's advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer-resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events.