Juvenile survival of little owls decreases with snow cover

Global environmental changes are associated with warmer average temperatures and more extreme weather events, potentially affecting wildlife population dynamics by altering demographic processes. Extreme weather events can reduce food resources and survival in all seasons of the year. Estimates of season-specific survival probabilities are therefore crucial to understand the moderating effect of extreme events on annual mortality. Here, we analysed survival probabilities of 307 radio-tracked juvenile little owls (Athene noctua) over two-week periods from fledging to their first breeding attempt in the following spring to assess the contribution of extreme weather events. Survival probabilities were typically lowest during the first weeks after fledging in summer but were moderated by seasonal extremes in winter. The duration of snow cover in winter had a strong negative effect on survival probability, while being food supplemented during the nestling stage increased survival during the first weeks after fledging in summer and ultimately led to a larger proportion of birds surviving the first year. Overall annual survival probability over the first year varied by 34.3% between 0.117 (95% credible interval 0.052-0.223) and 0.178 (0.097-0.293) depending on the severity of the winter, and was as high as 0.233 (0.127-0.373) for food-supplemented fledglings. In years with mild winters, the season with the lowest survival was the summer post-fledging period (0.508; 0.428-0.594), but in years with extensive snow cover the winter was the season with the lowest survival (0.481; 0.337-0.626). We therefore show that extreme weather events occurring in a particular season reduced the proportion of first-year survivors. Increasing extreme weather events can moderate seasonal survival probability through altering food supply of juvenile little owls either during the nestling period or in winter, with similarly large effects on annual survival and the viability of populations.

Factors affecting fledglings survival in urban population of European blackbirds in Szczecin (NW Poland)

The first-year survival alters population growth rates and viability in birds, however this period remains the least-studied of the avian life stages. Here we present results of the 19 years of study of fledglings apparent survival of urban population of European blackbird Turdus merula in Szczecin (NW Poland). We checked for possible influence on survival of several factors, including parental traits, such as parental age, their previous breeding experience, natal brood size, presence of another brood in a given breeding season and the time gap between clutches of a particular pair. Moreover, we incorporate into our analysis fledging's hierarchy in the brood, its fledging time in the breeding season, temperature and precipitation during the first months of life. We also investigated changes in the apparent survival over 19 years. We found that the individual's hierarchy in the nest, and the day of fledging had the strongest influence on the apparent survival, with heavier birds fledged earlier in the season surviving better. Increase in parental age and previous breeding experience of the pair could result in enhanced survival. Surprisingly increased precipitation lowered fledglings' survival. During the 19 years of the study fledglings' apparent survival dropped about 10%.

Fear of predators in free-living wildlife reduces population growth over generations

Accurately evaluating the total impact of predators on prey population growth rates is fundamental to forecasting the consequences of predator conservation and management. That the fear (antipredator responses) predators inspire could contribute to this total impact has only relatively recently been recognized. We experimentally demonstrate that fear itself can impact prey population growth rates in free-living wildlife, extending to transgenerational impacts reducing population growth beyond the parental generation. We report how fear may contribute considerably to the total impact of predators and why this may be the norm in birds and mammals. The critical significance of our work lies in experimentally establishing that inferring the effects of predators using data on direct killing alone risks dramatically underestimating their total impact.

Correctly assessing the total impact of predators on prey population growth rates (lambda, λ) is critical to comprehending the importance of predators in species conservation and wildlife management. Experiments over the past decade have demonstrated that the fear (antipredator responses) predators inspire can affect prey fecundity and early offspring survival in free-living wildlife, but recent reviews have highlighted the absence of evidence experimentally linking such effects to significant impacts on prey population growth. We experimentally manipulated fear in free-living wild songbird populations over three annual breeding seasons by intermittently broadcasting playbacks of either predator or nonpredator vocalizations and comprehensively quantified the effects on all the components of population growth, together with evidence of a transgenerational impact on offspring survival as adults. Fear itself significantly reduced the population growth rate (predator playback mean λ = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.80 to 1.04; nonpredator mean λ = 1.06, 95% CI = 0.96 to 1.16) by causing cumulative, compounding adverse effects on fecundity and every component of offspring survival, resulting in predator playback parents producing 53% fewer recruits to the adult breeding population. Fear itself was consequently projected to halve the population size in just 5 years, or just 4 years when the evidence of a transgenerational impact was additionally considered (λ = 0.85). Our results not only demonstrate that fear itself can significantly impact prey population growth rates in free-living wildlife, comparing them with those from hundreds of predator manipulation experiments indicates that fear may constitute a very considerable part of the total impact of predators.

Evidence of demographic buffering in an endangered great ape: Social buffering on immature survival and the role of refined sex-age classes on population growth rate

Theoretical and empirical research has shown that increased variability in demographic rates often results in a decline in the population growth rate. In order to reduce the adverse effects of increased variability, life-history theory predicts that demographic rates that contribute disproportionately to population growth should be buffered against environmental variation. To date, evidence of demographic buffering is still equivocal and limited to analyses on a reduced number of age classes (e.g. juveniles and adults), and on single sex models. Here we used Bayesian inference models for age-specific survival and fecundity on a long-term dataset of wild mountain gorillas. We used these estimates to parameterize two-sex, age-specific stochastic population projection models that accounted for the yearly covariation between demographic rates. We estimated the sensitivity of the long-run stochastic population growth rate to reductions in survival and fecundity on ages belonging to nine sex-age classes for survival and three age classes for female fecundity. We found a statistically significant negative linear relationship between the sensitivities and variances of demographic rates, with strong demographic buffering on young adult female survival and low buffering on older female and silverback survival and female fecundity. We found moderate buffering on all immature stages and on prime-age females. Previous research on long-lived slow species has found high buffering of prime-age female survival and low buffering on immature survival and fecundity. Our results suggest that the moderate buffering of the immature stages can be partially due to the mountain gorilla social system and the relative stability of their environment. Our results provide clear support for the demographic buffering hypothesis and its predicted effects on species at the slow end of the slow-fast life-history continuum, but with the surprising outcome of moderate social buffering on the survival of immature stages. We also demonstrate how increasing the number of sex-age classes can greatly improve the detection of demographic buffering in wild populations.

Broodmate aggression and life history variation in accipitrid birds of prey

Aggressive sibling competition for parental food resources is relatively infrequent in animals but highly prevalent and extreme among certain bird families, particularly accipitrid raptors (Accipitriformes). Intense broodmate aggression within this group is associated with a suite of traits including a large adult size, small broods, low provisioning rates, and slow development. In this study, we apply phylogenetic comparative analyses to assess the relative importance of several behavioral, morphological, life history, and ecological variables as predictors of the intensity of broodmate aggression in 65 species of accipitrid raptors. We show that intensity of aggression increases in species with lower parental effort (small clutch size and low provisioning rates), while size effects (adult body mass and length of nestling period) are unimportant. Intense aggression is more closely related to a slow life history pace (high adult survival coupled with a restrained parental effort), rather than a by-product of allometry or food limitation. Consideration of several ecological variables affecting prey abundance and availability reveals that certain lifestyles (e.g., breeding in aseasonal habitats or hunting for more agile prey) may slow a species' life history pace and favor the evolution of intense broodmate aggression.

Parental care buffers against effects of ambient temperature on offspring performance in an insect

Understanding how animals respond to and cope with variation in ambient temperature is an important priority. The reason for this is that ambient temperature is a key component of the physical environment that influences offspring performance in a wide range of ectotherms and endotherms. Here, we investigate whether posthatching parental care provides a behavioral mechanism for buffering against the effects of ambient temperature on offspring in the burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides. We used a 3 × 2 factorial design where we manipulated ambient temperature (15, 20, or 25 °C) and parental care (presence or absence of a female parent after hatching). We found that the effect of ambient temperature on offspring performance was conditional upon the presence or absence of a caring female. Fewer larvae survived in the absence than in the presence of a caring female at 15 °C while there was no difference in larval survival at 20 and 25 °C. Our results show that parental care buffers against some of the detrimental effects of variation in ambient temperature on offspring. We suggest that posthatching parental care may buffer against such effects by creating a more benign environment or by boosting offspring resilience toward stressors. Our results have important implications for our understanding of the evolution of parental care because they suggest that the evolution of parental care could allow species to expand their geographical range to colonize areas with harsher climatic conditions than they otherwise would tolerate.

The role of variation and plasticity in parental care during the adaptive radiation of three-spine sticklebacks

Phenotypic plasticity might influence evolutionary processes such as adaptive radiations. Plasticity in parental care might be especially effective in facilitating adaptive radiations if it allows populations to persist in novel environments. Here, we test the hypothesis that behavioral plasticity by parents in response to predation risk facilitated the adaptive radiation of three-spine sticklebacks. We compared the behavior of fathers across multiple ancestral (marine) and derived (freshwater) stickleback populations that differ in time since establishment. We measured behavioral plasticity in fathers in response to a predator found only in freshwater environments, simulating conditions marine males experience when colonizing freshwater. The antipredator behavior of males from newly established freshwater populations was intermediate between marine populations and well-established freshwater populations. In contrast to our predictions, on average, there was greater behavioral plasticity in derived freshwater populations than in ancestral marine populations. However, we found greater individual variation in behavioral reaction norms in marine populations compared to well-established freshwater populations, with newly established freshwater populations intermediate. This suggests that standing variation in behavioral reaction norms within ancestral populations might provide different evolutionary trajectories, and illustrates how plasticity can contribute to adaptive radiations.

First Direct Evidence for Natal Wintering Ground Fidelity and Estimate of Juvenile Survival in the New Zealand Southern Right Whale Eubalaena australis

Juvenile survival and recruitment can be more sensitive to environmental, ecological and anthropogenic factors than adult survival, influencing population-level processes like recruitment and growth rate in long-lived, iteroparous species such as southern right whales. Conventionally, Southern right whales are individually identified using callosity patterns, which do not stabilise until 6–12 months, by which time the whale has left its natal wintering grounds. Here we use DNA profiling of skin biopsy samples to identify individual Southern right whales from year of birth and document their return to the species’ primary wintering ground in New Zealand waters, the Subantarctic Auckland Islands. We find evidence of natal fidelity to the New Zealand wintering ground by the recapture of 15 of 57 whales, first sampled in year of birth and available for subsequent recapture, during winter surveys to the Auckland Islands in 1995–1998 and 2006–2009. Four individuals were recaptured at the ages of 9 to 11, including two females first sampled as calves in 1998 and subsequently resampled as cows with calves in 2007. Using these capture-recapture records of known-age individuals, we estimate changes in survival with age using Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Survival is modelled using discrete age classes and as a continuous function of age. Using a bootstrap method to account for uncertainty in model selection and fitting, we provide the first direct estimate of juvenile survival for this population. Our analyses indicate a high annual apparent survival for juveniles at between 0.87 (standard error (SE) 0.17, to age 1) and 0.95 (SE 0.05: ages 2–8). Individual identification by DNA profiling is an effective method for long-term demographic and genetic monitoring, particularly in animals that change identifiable features as they develop or experience tag loss over time.

Individual variation in parental workload and breeding productivity in female European starlings: is the effort worth it?

We analyzed individual variation in work load (nest visit rate) during chick-rearing, and the consequences of this variation in terms of breeding productivity, in a highly synchronous breeder, the European starling (Sturnus vulgaris) focusing on female birds. There was marked (10- to 16-fold) variation in total, female and male nest visit rates, among individuals, but individual variation in female nest visit rate was independent of environment (rainfall, temperature) and metrics of individual quality (laying date, clutch size, amount of male provisioning help), and was only weakly associated with chick demand (i.e., day 6 brood size). Female nest visit rate was independent of date and experimentally delayed birds provisioned at the same rate as peak-nesting birds; supporting a lack of effect of date per se. Brood size at fledging was positively but weakly related to total nest visit rate (male + female), with >fivefold variation in nest visit rate for any given brood size, and in females brood size at fledging and chick mass at fledging were independent of female nest visit rate, that is, individual variation in workload was not associated with higher productivity. Nevertheless, nest visit rate in females was repeatable among consecutive days (6–8 posthatching), and between peak (first) and second broods, but not among years. Our data suggest that individual females behave as if committed to a certain level of parental care at the outset of their annual breeding attempt, but this varies among years, that is, behavior is not fixed throughout an individual's life but represents an annually variable decision. We suggest females are making predictable decisions about their workload during provisioning that maximizes their overall fitness based on an integration of information on their current environment (although these cues currently remain unidentified).

Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage-grouse

Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre- and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio-marked greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site-level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage-grouse may have indirect benefits to survival during postfledging, due to carryover effects between the two life phases.

Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population

Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long-term mark-recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12-17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4-6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.