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Miller MWC, Lovvorn JR, Graff NR, Stellrecht NC. Use of marine vs. freshwater proteins for egg‐laying and incubation by sea ducks breeding in Arctic tundra. Ecosphere 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Micah W. C. Miller
- School of Biological Sciences Southern Illinois University Carbondale Illinois USA
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Fairbanks Fish and Wildlife Field Office Fairbanks Alaska USA
| | - James R. Lovvorn
- School of Biological Sciences Southern Illinois University Carbondale Illinois USA
| | - Nathan R. Graff
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Fairbanks Fish and Wildlife Field Office Fairbanks Alaska USA
- Department of Biology and Wildlife University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks Alaska USA
| | - Neesha C. Stellrecht
- U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Fairbanks Fish and Wildlife Field Office Fairbanks Alaska USA
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Clement Kinney J, Maslowski W, Osinski R, Lee YJ, Goethel C, Frey K, Craig A. On the variability of the Bering Sea Cold Pool and implications for the biophysical environment. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0266180. [PMID: 35377921 PMCID: PMC8979450 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0266180] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2021] [Accepted: 03/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The Bering Sea experiences a seasonal sea ice cover, which is important to the biophysical environment found there. A pool of cold bottom water (<2°C) is formed on the shelf each winter as a result of cooling and vertical mixing due to brine rejection during the predominately local sea ice growth. The extent and distribution of this Cold Pool (CP) is largely controlled by the winter extent of sea ice in the Bering Sea, which can vary considerably and recently has been much lower than average. The cold bottom water of the CP is important for food security because it delineates the boundary between arctic and subarctic demersal fish species. A northward retreat of the CP will likely be associated with migration of subarctic species toward the Chukchi Sea. We use the fully-coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to examine variability of the extent and distribution of the CP and its relation to change in the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea during the period 1980–2018. RASM results confirm the direct correlation between the extent of sea ice and the CP and show a smaller CP as a consequence of realistically simulated recent declines of the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea. In fact, the area of the CP was found to be only 31% of the long-term mean in July of 2018. In addition, we also find that a low ice year is followed by a later diatom bloom, while a heavy ice year is followed by an early diatom bloom. Finally, the RASM probabilistic intra-annual forecast capability is reviewed, based on 31-member ensembles for 2019–2021, for its potential use for prediction of the winter sea ice cover and the subsequent summer CP area in the Bering Sea.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Wieslaw Maslowski
- Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, United States of America
| | - Robert Osinski
- Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Sopot, Poland
| | - Younjoo J. Lee
- Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, United States of America
| | - Christina Goethel
- Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Solomons, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Karen Frey
- Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Anthony Craig
- University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America
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Dunham KD, Tucker AM, Koons DN, Abebe A, Dobson FS, Grand JB. Demographic responses to climate change in a threatened Arctic species. Ecol Evol 2021; 11:10627-10643. [PMID: 34367602 PMCID: PMC8328435 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.7873] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2020] [Revised: 05/28/2021] [Accepted: 06/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
The Arctic is undergoing rapid and accelerating change in response to global warming, altering biodiversity patterns, and ecosystem function across the region. For Arctic endemic species, our understanding of the consequences of such change remains limited. Spectacled eiders (Somateria fischeri), a large Arctic sea duck, use remote regions in the Bering Sea, Arctic Russia, and Alaska throughout the annual cycle making it difficult to conduct comprehensive surveys or demographic studies. Listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, understanding the species response to climate change is critical for effective conservation policy and planning. Here, we developed an integrated population model to describe spectacled eider population dynamics using capture-mark-recapture, breeding population survey, nest survey, and environmental data collected between 1992 and 2014. Our intent was to estimate abundance, population growth, and demographic rates, and quantify how changes in the environment influenced population dynamics. Abundance of spectacled eiders breeding in western Alaska has increased since listing in 1993 and responded more strongly to annual variation in first-year survival than adult survival or productivity. We found both adult survival and nest success were highest in years following intermediate sea ice conditions during the wintering period, and both demographic rates declined when sea ice conditions were above or below average. In recent years, sea ice extent has reached new record lows and has remained below average throughout the winter for multiple years in a row. Sea ice persistence is expected to further decline in the Bering Sea. Our results indicate spectacled eiders may be vulnerable to climate change and the increasingly variable sea ice conditions throughout their wintering range with potentially deleterious effects on population dynamics. Importantly, we identified that different demographic rates responded similarly to changes in sea ice conditions, emphasizing the need for integrated analyses to understand population dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kylee D. Dunham
- Alabama Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research UnitSchool of Forestry and Wildlife SciencesAuburn UniversityAuburnALUSA
- Present address:
Department of Biological SciencesUniversity of AlbertaEdmontonABCanada
| | - Anna M. Tucker
- Alabama Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research UnitSchool of Forestry and Wildlife SciencesAuburn UniversityAuburnALUSA
- Present address:
U.S. Geological SurveyPatuxent Wildlife Research CenterLaurelMDUSA
| | - David N. Koons
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology & Graduate Degree Program in EcologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsCOUSA
| | - Asheber Abebe
- Department of Mathematics and StatisticsAuburn UniversityAuburnALUSA
| | | | - James B. Grand
- U.S. Geological SurveyAlabama Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research UnitAuburnALUSA
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Smith MA, Sullender BK, Koeppen WC, Kuletz KJ, Renner HM, Poe AJ. An assessment of climate change vulnerability for Important Bird Areas in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0214573. [PMID: 30995250 PMCID: PMC6469780 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0214573] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2018] [Accepted: 03/15/2019] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Recently available downscaled ocean climate models for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc offer the opportunity to assess climate vulnerability for upper trophic level consumers such as marine birds. We analyzed seasonal and annual spatial projections from three climate models for two physical climate variables (seawater temperature and sea ice) and three forage variables (large copepods, euphausiids, and benthic infauna), comparing projected conditions from a recent time period (2003–2012) to a future time period (2030–2039). We focused the analyses on core areas within globally significant Important Bird Areas, and developed indices of the magnitude of projected change and vulnerability agreement among models. All three climate models indicated a high degree of change for seawater temperature warming (highest in the central and eastern Aleutian Islands) and ice loss (most significant in the eastern Bering Sea) across scales, and we found those changes to be significant for every species and virtually every core area assessed. There was low model agreement for the forage variables; while the majority of core areas were identified as climate vulnerable by one or more models (72% for large copepods, 73% for euphausiids, and 94% for benthic infauna), very few were agreed upon by all three models (only 6% of euphausiid-forager core areas). Based on the magnitude-agreement score, euphausiid biomass decline affected core areas for fulmars, gulls, and auklets, especially along the outer shelf and Aleutian Islands. Benthic biomass decline affected eiders along the inner shelf, and large copepod decline was significant for storm-petrels and auklets in the western Aleutians. Overall, 12% of core areas indicated climate vulnerability for all variables assessed. Modeling and interpreting biological parameters to project future dynamics remains complex; the strong signal for projected physical changes raised concerns about lagged responses such as distribution shifts, breeding failures, mortality events, and population declines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melanie A. Smith
- Audubon Alaska, Anchorage, Alaska, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | | | | | - Kathy J. Kuletz
- US Fish and Wildlife Service, Anchorage, Alaska, United States of America
| | - Heather M. Renner
- Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Homer, Alaska, United States of America
| | - Aaron J. Poe
- US Fish and Wildlife Service, Anchorage, Alaska, United States of America
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Christie KS, Hollmen TE, Flint P, Douglas D. Non-linear effect of sea ice: Spectacled Eider survival declines at both extremes of the ice spectrum. Ecol Evol 2018; 8:11808-11818. [PMID: 30598778 PMCID: PMC6303746 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4637] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2018] [Revised: 08/21/2018] [Accepted: 09/05/2018] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the relationship between environmental factors and vital rates is an important step in predicting a species' response to environmental change. Species associated with sea ice are of particular concern because sea ice is projected to decrease rapidly in polar environments with continued levels of greenhouse gas emissions. The relationship between sea ice and the vital rates of the Spectacled Eider, a threatened species that breeds in Alaska and Russia and winters in the Bering Sea, appears to be complex. While severe ice can impede foraging for benthic prey, ice also suppresses wave action and provides a platform on which eiders roost, thereby reducing thermoregulation costs. We analyzed a 23-year mark-recapture dataset for Spectacled Eiders nesting on Kigigak Island in western Alaska, and tested survival models containing different ice and weather-related covariates. We found that much of the variation in eider survival could be explained by the number of days per year with >95% sea ice concentration at the Bering Sea core wintering area. Furthermore, the data supported a quadratic relationship with sea ice rather than a linear one, indicating that intermediate sea ice concentrations were optimal for survival. We then used matrix population models to project population trajectories using General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs of daily sea ice cover. GCMs projected reduced sea ice at the wintering area by year 2100 under a moderated emissions scenario (RCP 4.5) and nearly ice-free conditions under an unabated emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Under RCP 4.5, stochastic models projected an increase in population size until 2069 coincident with moderate ice conditions, followed by a decline in population size as ice conditions shifted from intermediate to mostly ice-free. Under RCP 8.5, eider abundance increased until 2040 and then decreased to near extirpation toward the end of the century as the Bering Sea became ice-free. Considerable uncertainty around parameter estimates for survival in years with minimal sea ice contributed to variation in stochastic projections of future population size, and this uncertainty could be reduced with additional survival data from low-ice winters.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Tuula E. Hollmen
- The Alaska SeaLife CenterSewardAlaska
- The College of Fisheries and Ocean SciencesUniversity of Alaska FairbanksFairbanksAlaska
| | - Paul Flint
- U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Science CenterAnchorageAlaska
| | - David Douglas
- U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Science CenterJuneauAlaska
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Miller MWC, Lovvorn JR, Matz AC, Taylor RJ, Latty CJ, Safine DE. Trace Elements in Sea Ducks of the Alaskan Arctic Coast: Patterns of Variation Among Species, Sexes, and Ages. ARCHIVES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINATION AND TOXICOLOGY 2016; 71:297-312. [PMID: 27272534 DOI: 10.1007/s00244-016-0288-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2015] [Accepted: 05/18/2016] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Climate change and increasing industrialization in the Arctic call for the collection of reference data for assessing changes in contaminant levels. For migratory birds, measuring and interpreting changes in trace element burdens on Arctic breeding areas require insights into factors such as sex, body size, or wintering area that may modify patterns independently of local exposure. In the Alaskan Arctic, we determined levels of trace elements in liver and kidney of common eiders (Somateria mollissima) and long-tailed ducks (Clangula hyemalis) from the Prudhoe Bay oil field and of king eiders (S. spectabilis) and threatened spectacled eiders (S. fischeri) and Steller's eiders (Polystica stelleri) from near the town of Barrow. Small-bodied Steller's eiders and long-tailed ducks from different locations had similarly low levels of selenium (Se), cadmium (Cd), and copper (Cu), perhaps reflecting high mass-specific rates of metabolic depuration during long spring migrations through areas of low exposure. In larger species, Se, Cd, and Cu concentrations were higher in adults than juveniles suggesting that these elements were acquired in nonbreeding marine habitats. Adult male spectacled eiders had exceptionally high Se, Cd, and Cu compared with adult females, possibly because of depuration into eggs and longer female occupancy of nonmarine habitats. Adult female common eiders and juvenile long-tailed ducks at Prudhoe Bay had high and variable levels of Pb, potentially due to local exposure. Explanations for substantial variations in Hg levels were not apparent. Further research into reasons for differing element levels among species and sexes will help clarify the sources, pathways, and risks of exposure.
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Affiliation(s)
- Micah W C Miller
- Department of Zoology and Center for Ecology, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL, 62901, USA.
- United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Fairbanks Fish and Wildlife Field Office, Fairbanks, AK, 99701, USA.
| | - James R Lovvorn
- Department of Zoology and Center for Ecology, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL, 62901, USA
| | - Angela C Matz
- United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Fairbanks Fish and Wildlife Field Office, Fairbanks, AK, 99701, USA
| | - Robert J Taylor
- Trace Elements Research Laboratory, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843, USA
| | - Christopher J Latty
- United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Fairbanks, AK, 99701, USA
| | - David E Safine
- United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Fairbanks Fish and Wildlife Field Office, Fairbanks, AK, 99701, USA
- Division of Migratory Birds Management, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Anchorage, AK, 99503, USA
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Spencer NC, Gilchrist HG, Strøm H, Allard KA, Mallory ML. Key winter habitat of the ivory gull Pagophila eburnea in the Canadian Arctic. ENDANGER SPECIES RES 2016. [DOI: 10.3354/esr00747] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
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Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) resource selection in the Northern Bering Sea. PLoS One 2014; 9:e93035. [PMID: 24717979 PMCID: PMC3981674 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0093035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2013] [Accepted: 02/28/2014] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The Pacific walrus is a large benthivore with an annual range extending across the continental shelves of the Bering and Chukchi Seas. We used a discrete choice model to estimate site selection by adult radio-tagged walruses relative to the availability of the caloric biomass of benthic infauna and sea ice concentration in a prominent walrus wintering area in the northern Bering Sea (St. Lawrence Island polynya) in 2006, 2008, and 2009. At least 60% of the total caloric biomass of dominant macroinfauna in the study area was composed of members of the bivalve families Nuculidae, Tellinidae, and Nuculanidae. Model estimates indicated walrus site selection was related most strongly to tellinid bivalve caloric biomass distribution and that walruses selected lower ice concentrations from the mostly high ice concentrations that were available to them (quartiles: 76%, 93%, and 99%). Areas with high average predicted walrus site selection generally coincided with areas of high organic carbon input identified in other studies. Projected decreases in sea ice in the St. Lawrence Island polynya and the potential for a concomitant decline of bivalves in the region could result in a northward shift in the wintering grounds of walruses in the northern Bering Sea.
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