1
|
Lam VYY, Doropoulos C, Bozec YM, Mumby PJ. Resilience Concepts and Their Application to Coral Reefs. Front Ecol Evol 2020. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2020.00049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
|
2
|
Weekers DP, Zahnow R. Risky facilities: Analysis of illegal recreational fishing in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, Australia. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2018. [DOI: 10.1177/0004865818804021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
|
3
|
Certain G, Barraquand F, Gårdmark A. How do MAR(1) models cope with hidden nonlinearities in ecological dynamics? Methods Ecol Evol 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Grégoire Certain
- MARBEC, Ifremer Laboratoire Halieutique MéditerranéeUniversity of MontpellierCNRS, IRD Sète France
- Department of Aquatic ResourcesSwedish University of Agricultural Sciences Öregrund Sweden
| | - Frédéric Barraquand
- Institute of Mathematics of BordeauxCNRS Talence France
- Integrative and Theoretical Ecology ChairLabEx COTEUniversity of Bordeaux Pessac France
| | - Anna Gårdmark
- Department of Aquatic ResourcesSwedish University of Agricultural Sciences Öregrund Sweden
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Schreiber SJ, Moore JL. The structured demography of open populations in fluctuating environments. Methods Ecol Evol 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12991] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Sebastian J. Schreiber
- Department of Evolution and Ecology and Center for Population Biology University of California Davis CA USA
| | - Jacob L. Moore
- Department of Evolution and Ecology and Center for Population Biology University of California Davis CA USA
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Allen KA, Bruno JF, Chong F, Clancy D, McClanahan TR, Spencer M, Żychaluk K. Among-site variability in the stochastic dynamics of East African coral reefs. PeerJ 2017; 5:e3290. [PMID: 28533955 PMCID: PMC5437857 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.3290] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2017] [Accepted: 04/10/2017] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Coral reefs are dynamic systems whose composition is highly influenced by unpredictable biotic and abiotic factors. Understanding the spatial scale at which long-term predictions of reef composition can be made will be crucial for guiding conservation efforts. Using a 22-year time series of benthic composition data from 20 reefs on the Kenyan and Tanzanian coast, we developed Bayesian vector autoregressive state-space models for reef dynamics, incorporating among-site variability, and quantified their long-term behaviour. We estimated that if there were no among-site variability, the total long-term variability would be approximately one-third of its current value. Thus, our results showed that among-site variability contributes more to long-term variability in reef composition than does temporal variability. Individual sites were more predictable than previously thought, and predictions based on current snapshots are informative about long-term properties. Our approach allowed us to identify a subset of possible climate refugia sites with high conservation value, where the long-term probability of coral cover ≤0.1 (as a proportion of benthic cover of hard substrate) was very low. Analytical results show that this probability is most strongly influenced by among-site variability and by interactions among benthic components within sites. These findings suggest that conservation initiatives might be successful at the site scale as well as the regional scale.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Katherine A Allen
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom.,Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - John F Bruno
- Department of Biology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States of America
| | - Fiona Chong
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Damian Clancy
- School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
| | | | - Matthew Spencer
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Kamila Żychaluk
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
The influence of resilience-based management on coral reef monitoring: A systematic review. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0172064. [PMID: 28187165 PMCID: PMC5302802 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0172064] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2016] [Accepted: 01/30/2017] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
With rapid changes taking place on coral reefs, managers and scientists are faced with prioritising interventions that might avoid undesirable losses in ecosystem health. The property of resilience captures how reefs react and respond to stressors and environmental changes. Therefore, in principle, management goals are more likely to be realised if resilience theory is used to inform decision making and help set realistic expectations for reef outcomes. Indeed, a new approach to reef management has been termed ‘resilience-based management’ (RBM). Yet, resilience concepts have often been criticised for being vague, difficult to operationalise, and beset by multiple definitions. Here, we evaluate how the advent of RBM has changed one aspect of reef management: assessment and monitoring. We compare the metrics used in conventional monitoring programs with those developed through resilience assessments and find that the latter have a stronger focus on ecological processes and exposure to environmental drivers. In contrast, monitoring tends to focus on metrics of reef state and has greater taxonomic resolution, which provides comprehensive information on the nature of changes but does not predict the future responses of reefs in part because it is difficult to extrapolate statistical trends of complex ecological systems. In addition, metrics measured by resilience studies are more diverse, owing in part to the reliance of state metrics as proxies of processes given the difficulty in quantifying key ecological processes directly. We conclude by describing practical ways of improving resilience assessments, and avenues for future research.
Collapse
|
7
|
Dale AP, Vella K, Pressey RL, Brodie J, Gooch M, Potts R, Eberhard R. Risk analysis of the governance system affecting outcomes in the Great Barrier Reef. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2016; 183:712-721. [PMID: 27641654 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2016.09.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2016] [Revised: 08/29/2016] [Accepted: 09/03/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
The state and trend of the Great Barrier Reef's (GBR's) ecological health remains problematic, influencing United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) statements regarding GBR governance. While UNESCO's concerns triggered separate strategic assessments by the Australian and Queensland governments, there has been no independent and integrated review of the key risks within the overall system of governance influencing GBR outcomes. As a case study of international significance, this paper applies Governance Systems Analysis (GSA), a novel analytical framework that identifies the governance themes, domains and subdomains most likely to influence environmental and socio-economic outcomes in complex natural systems. This GBR-focussed application of GSA identifies governance subdomains that present high, medium, or low risk of failure to produce positive outcomes for the Reef. This enabled us to determine that three "whole of system" governance problems could undermine GBR outcomes. First, we stress the integrative importance of the Long Term Sustainability Plan (LTSP) Subdomain. Sponsored by the Australian and Queensland governments, this subdomain concerns the primary institutional arrangements for coordinated GBR planning and delivery, but due to its recent emergence, it faces several internal governance challenges. Second, we find a major risk of implementation failure in the achievement of GBR water quality actions due to a lack of system-wide focus on building strong and stable delivery systems at catchment scale. Finally, we conclude that the LTSP Subdomain currently has too limited a mandate/capacity to influence several high-risk subdomains that have not been, but must be more strongly aligned with Reef management (e.g. the Greenhouse Gas Emission Management Subdomain). Our analysis enables exploration of governance system reforms needed to address environmental trends in the GBR and reflects on the potential application of GSA in other complex land and sea-scapes across the globe.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Allan P Dale
- The Cairns Institute, James Cook University (JCU), PO Box 6811, Cairns, Queensland, 4870, Australia.
| | - Karen Vella
- School of Civil Engineering and Built Environment, Science and Engineering Faculty, QUT, Brisbane, Queensland, 4000, Australia.
| | - Robert L Pressey
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, JCU, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia.
| | - Jon Brodie
- Centre for Tropical Water and Aquatic Ecosystem Research, JCU, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia.
| | - Margaret Gooch
- Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, PO Box 1379, Townsville, Queensland, 4810, Australia.
| | - Ruth Potts
- School of Civil Engineering and Built Environment, Science and Engineering Faculty, QUT, Brisbane, Queensland, 4000, Australia.
| | - Rachel Eberhard
- School of Civil Engineering and Built Environment, Science and Engineering Faculty, QUT, Brisbane, Queensland, 4000, Australia.
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Gross K, Edmunds PJ. Stability of Caribbean coral communities quantified by long-term monitoring and autoregression models. Ecology 2015; 96:1812-22. [DOI: 10.1890/14-0941.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
|