Demystifying individual heterogeneity

Among-individual variation in vital rates, such as mortality and birth rates, exists in nearly all populations. Recent studies suggest that this individual heterogeneity produces substantial life-history and fitness differences among individuals, which in turn scale up to influence population dynamics. However, our ability to understand the consequences of individual heterogeneity is limited by inconsistencies across conceptual frameworks in the field. Studies of individual heterogeneity remain filled with contradicting and ambiguous terminology that introduces risks of misunderstandings, conflicting models and unreliable conclusions. Here, we synthesise the existing literature into a single and comparatively straightforward framework with explicit terminology and definitions. This work introduces a distinction between potential vital rates and realised vital rates to develop a coherent framework that maps directly onto mathematical models of individual heterogeneity. We suggest the terms "fixed condition" and "dynamic condition" be used to distinguish potential vital rates that are permanent from those that can change throughout an individual's life. To illustrate, we connect the framework to quantitative genetics models and to common classes of statistical models used to infer individual heterogeneity. We also develop a population projection matrix model that provides an example of how our definitions are translated into precise quantitative terms.

Initial abundance and stochasticity influence competitive outcome in communities

Predicting competitive outcomes in communities frequently involves inferences based on deterministic population models since these provide clear criteria for exclusion (e.g. R* rule) or long-term coexistence (e.g. mutual invasibility). However, incorporating stochasticity into population- or community-level processes into models is necessary if the goal is to explain variation in natural systems, which are inherently stochastic. Similarly, in systems with demographic or environmental stochasticity, weaker competitors have the potential to exclude superior competitors, contributing to what is known as 'competitive indeterminacy'. The importance of such effects for natural communities is unknown, in part because it is difficult to demonstrate that multiple forms of stochasticity are present in these communities. Moreover, the effects of multiple forms of stochasticity on competitive outcomes are largely untested, even in theory. Here, we address these issues by examining the role of stochasticity in replicated communities of flour beetles (Tribolium sp.). To do so, we developed a set of two-species stochastic Ricker models incorporating four distinct forms of stochasticity: environmental stochasticity, demographic stochasticity, demographic heterogeneity and stochastic sex determination. By fitting models to experimental data, and simulating fit models to examine long- term behaviour, we found that both the duration of transient coexistence and the degree of competitive indeterminacy were sensitive to the forms of stochasticity included in our models. These findings suggest the current estimates of extinction risk, coexistence and time until competitive exclusion in communities may not be accurate when based on models that exclude relevant forms of stochasticity.

Landscape edges shape dispersal and population structure of a migratory fish

Many freshwater organisms have a life-history stage that can disperse through seawater. This has obvious benefits for colonization and connectivity of fragmented sub-populations, but requires a physiologically challenging migration across a salinity boundary. We consider the role of landscape boundaries between freshwater and seawater habitats, and evaluate their potential effects on traits and developmental histories of larvae and juveniles (i.e., dispersing life-history stages) of an amphidromous fish, Galaxias maculatus. We sampled juvenile fish on their return to 20 rivers in New Zealand: 10 rivers had abrupt transitions to the sea (i.e., emptying to an open coastline); these were paired with 10 nearby rivers that had gradual transitions to the sea (i.e., emptying into estuarine embayments). We reconstructed individual dispersal histories using otolith microstructure, otolith microchemistry, and stable isotope analysis. We found that fish recruiting to embayment rivers had distinct dispersal and foraging histories, were slower growing, smaller in size, and older than fish recruiting to nearby non-embayment rivers. Our results indicate that landscape edges can affect dispersal capabilities of aquatic organisms, potentially leading to divergent life-history strategies (i.e., limited- versus widespread-dispersal). Patterns also suggest that dispersal potential among landscape boundaries can create heterogeneity in the traits of individuals, with implications for metapopulation dynamics.

Patterns of selective predation change with ontogeny but not density in a marine fish

Phenotypic variation is prevalent in the early life-history stages of many organisms and provides the basis for selective mortality on size and growth-related traits of older life stages. Densities of organisms can vary widely at important life-history transitions, raising additional questions about the interplay between selection and density-dependent processes. We evaluate density dependence in patterns of selective mortality for a temperate reef fish. Specifically, we exposed pre-settlement and post-settlement stages of the common triplefin (Forsterygion lapillum) to a natural predator and evaluated patterns of selective mortality on early life-history traits as a function of ontogenetic stage and density. We used otoliths to reconstruct the traits of fish that survived versus fish that were consumed (i.e., we recovered otoliths from the guts of predators), and we estimated selection by analysing the relationship between absolute fitness and standardised traits. Absolute fitness was negatively correlated with size and larval growth rate for pre-settlement fish (i.e., larger and faster growing individuals were more likely to be consumed by predators), and this was consistent across the range of densities evaluated. Post-settlement fish experienced no selective mortality. Additionally, absolute fitness was equal across density treatments, suggesting mortality was density-independent. Collectively, these results suggest that patterns of selection change with ontogeny, but may be stable across densities when mortality is density-independent. Shifts in selective mortality for species with distinct life-stages can mask and complicate relationships between traits and fitness, and the importance of such traits may be underappreciated for earlier life stages.

Moonlight enhances growth in larval fish

Moonlight mediates trophic interactions and shapes the evolution of life-history strategies for nocturnal organisms. Reproductive cycles and important life-history transitions for many marine organisms coincide with moon phases, but few studies consider the effects of moonlight on pelagic larvae at sea. We evaluated effects of moonlight on growth of pelagic larvae of a temperate reef fish using "master chronologies" of larval growth constructed from age-independent daily increment widths recorded in otoliths of 321 individuals. We found that daily growth rates of fish larvae were enhanced by lunar illumination after controlling for the positive influence of temperature and the negative influence of cloud cover. Collectively, these results indicate that moonlight enhances growth rates of larval fish. This pattern is likely the result of moonlight's combined effects on foraging efficiency and suppression of diel migrations of mesopelagic predators, and has the potential to drive evolution of marine life histories.

Born at the right time? A conceptual framework linking reproduction, development, and settlement in reef fish

Parents are expected to make decisions about reproductive timing and investment that maximize their own fitness, even if this does not maximize the fitness of each individual offspring. When offspring survival is uncertain, selection typically favors iteroparity, which means that offspring born at some times can be disadvantaged, while others get lucky. The eventual fate of offspring may be further modified by their own decisions. Are fates of offspring set by birthdates (i.e., determined by parents), or can offspring improve upon the cards they've been dealt? If so, do we see adaptive plasticity in the developmental timing of offspring? We evaluate these questions for a coral reef fish (the sixbar wrasse, Thalassoma hardwicke) that is characterized by extreme iteroparity and flexible larval development. Specifically, we monitored larval settlement to 192 small reefs over 11 lunar months and found that most fish settled during new moons of a lunar cycle (consistent with preferential settlement on dark nights). Settlement was significantly lower than expected by chance during the full moon and last quarter of the lunar cycle (consistent with avoidance of bright nights). Survival after settlement was greatest for fish that settled during times of decreasing lunar illumination (from last quarter to new moon). Fish that settled on the last quarter of the lunar cycle were ~10% larger than fish that settled during other periods, suggesting larvae delay settlement to avoid the full moon. These results are consistent with a numerical model that predicts plasticity in larval development time that enables avoidance of settlement during bright periods. Collectively, our results suggest that fish with inauspicious birthdates may alter their developmental trajectories to settle at better times. We speculate that such interactions between parent and offspring strategies may reinforce the evolution of extreme iteroparity and drive population dynamics, by increasing the survival of offspring born at the "wrong" time by allowing them to avoid the riskiest times of settlement.

Individual heterogeneity determines sex differences in mortality in a monogamous bird with reversed sexual dimorphism

Sex differences in mortality are pervasive in vertebrates, and usually result in shorter life spans in the larger sex, although the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. On the other hand, differences in frailty among individuals (i.e. individual heterogeneity), can play a major role in shaping demographic trajectories in wild populations. The link between these two processes has seldom been explored. We used Bayesian survival trajectory analysis to study age-specific mortality trajectories in the Eurasian sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus), a monogamous raptor with reversed sexual size dimorphism. We tested the effect of individual heterogeneity on age-specific mortality, and the extent by which this heterogeneity was determined by average reproductive output and wing length as measures of an individual's frailty. We found that sex differences in age-specific mortality were primarily driven by the differences in individual heterogeneity between the two sexes. Females were more heterogeneous than males in their level of frailty. Thus, a larger number of females with low frailty are able to survive to older ages than males, with life expectancy for the least frail adult females reaching up to 4·23 years, while for the least frail adult males it was of 2·68 years. We found that 50% of this heterogeneity was determined by average reproductive output and wing length in both sexes. For both, individuals with high average reproductive output had also higher chances to survive. However, the effect of wing length was different between the two sexes. While larger females had higher survival, larger males had lower chances to survive. Our results contribute a novel perspective to the ongoing debate about the mechanisms that drive sex differences in vital rates in vertebrates. Although we found that variables that relate to the cost of reproduction and sexual dimorphism are at least partially involved in determining these sex differences, it is through their effect on the level of frailty that they affect age patterns of mortality. Therefore, our results raise the possibility that observed differences in age-specific demographic rates may in fact be driven by differences in individual heterogeneity.