Density-dependent productivity in a colonial vulture at two spatial scales

Ecosystem productivity drives the breeding success of an endangered top avian scavenger in a changing grazing pressure context

Environmental conditions and resource availability shape population dynamics through direct and indirect effects of climate, biological interactions and the human modification of landscape. Even when a species seems dependent on predictable anthropogenic food resources or subsidies, ecosystem-level factors can still determine population dynamics across taxa. However, there is still a knowledge gap about the cascade effects driven by climate, vegetation functioning, resource availability and governmental policies on key aspects of species reproduction for top scavengers. Here we put to good use 22 years (2000-2021) of extensive population monitoring from the endemic Canary Egyptian vulture (Neophron percnopterus majorensis) on the Fuerteventura Island (Canary Islands, Spain) to study the relative importance of demographic factors, ecosystem conditions and availability of anthropogenic food sources on breeding success. Our results suggest that ecosystem-level primary productivity, the number of livestock animals present on the island and Density-dependent processes determine the temporal changes in the breeding success of this species. We firstly accounted for a top-down effect of livestock on island vegetation, where overgrazing directly reduces landscape-level vegetation biomass. We, consequently, found a bottom-up effect between vegetation and the Egyptian vulture's breeding success. In this context, minimal changes in ecological conditions can impact the species inhabiting these ecosystems, with direct consequences on a key population stage, such as breeding season, when energy requirements are higher. These results are especially relevant because cascading and indirect effects of ecosystem processes and governmental policies are often overlooked when pursuing conservation goals of endangered species.

From spawner habitat selection to stock-recruitment: Implications for assessment

The relationship between the spawning stock size and subsequent number of recruits is a central concept in fisheries ecology. The influence of habitat selection of spawning individuals on the stock-recruitment relationship is poorly known. Here we explore how each of four different spawner behaviors might influence the stock-recruitment relationship and estimates of its parameters in the two most commonly used stock-recruitment functions (Beverton-Holt and Ricker). Using simulated stock-recruitment data generated by four different spawner behaviors applied to multiple discrete habitats, we show that when spawners were distributed proportionally to local carrying capacities, there was small or no bias in estimated recruitment and stock-recruitment parameters. For an ideal free distribution of spawners, larger bias in the estimates of recruitment and stock-recruitment parameters was obtained, whereas a random and a stepwise spawner behavior introduced the largest bias. Using stock-recruitment data corresponding to a "realistic" range of population densities and adding measurement error (20%-60%) to the simulated stock-recruitment data generated larger variation in the estimation bias than what was introduced by the spawner behavior. Thus, for exploited stocks at low population density and where spawning stock size and recruitment cannot be observed perfectly, partial observation of the possible spawner abundance range and measurement error might be of higher concern for management.

Long-term demographic dynamics of a keystone scavenger disrupted by human-induced shifts in food availability

Scavenging is a key ecological process controlling energy flow in ecosystems and providing valuable ecosystem services worldwide. As long-lived species, the demographic dynamics of vultures can be disrupted by spatiotemporal fluctuations in food availability, with dramatic impacts on their population viability and the ecosystem services provided. In Europe, the outbreak of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in 2001 prompted a restrictive sanitary regulation banning the presence of livestock carcasses in the wild on a continental scale. In long-lived vertebrate species, the buffering hypothesis predicts that the demographic traits with the largest contribution to population growth rate should be less temporally variable. The BSE outbreak provides a unique opportunity to test for the impact of demographic buffering in a keystone scavenger suffering abrupt but transient food shortages. We studied the 42-year dynamics (1979-2020) of one of the world's largest breeding colonies of Eurasian griffon vultures (Gyps fulvus). We fitted an inverse Bayesian state-space model with density-dependent demographic rates to the time series of stage-structured abundances to investigate shifts in vital rates and population dynamics before, during, and after the implementation of a restrictive sanitary regulation. Prior to the BSE outbreak the dynamics was mainly driven by adult survival: 83% of temporal variance in abundance was explained by variability in this rate. Moreover, during this period the regulation of population size operated through density-dependent fecundity and subadult survival. However, after the onset of the European ban, a 1-month delay in average laying date, a drop in fecundity, and a reduction in the number of fledglings induced a transient increase in the impact of fledgling and subadult recruitment on dynamics. Although adult survival rate remained constantly high, as predicted by the buffering hypothesis, its relative impact on the temporal variance in abundance dropped to 71% during the sanitary regulation and to 54% after the ban was lifted. A significant increase in the relative impact of environmental stochasticity on dynamics was modeled after the BSE outbreak. These results provide empirical evidence on how abrupt environmental deterioration may induce dramatic demographic and dynamic changes in the populations of keystone scavengers, with far-reaching impacts on ecosystem functioning worldwide.

Too much is bad: increasing numbers of livestock and conspecifics reduce body mass in an avian scavenger

Individual traits such as body mass can serve as early warning signals of changes in the fitness prospects of animal populations facing environmental impacts. Here, taking advantage of a 19-yr monitoring, we assessed how individual, population, and environmental factors modulate long-term changes in the body mass of Canarian Egyptian vultures. Individual vulture body mass increased when primary productivity was highly variable, but decreased in years with a high abundance of livestock. We hypothesized that carcasses of wild animals, a natural food resource that can be essential for avian scavengers, could be more abundant in periods of weather instability but depleted when high livestock numbers lead to overgrazing. In addition, increasing vulture population numbers also negatively affect body mass suggesting density-dependent competition for food. Interestingly, the relative strength of individual, population and resource availability factors on body mass changed with age and territorial status, a pattern presumably shaped by differences in competitive abilities and/or age-dependent environmental knowledge and foraging skills. Our study supports that individual plastic traits may be extremely reliable tools to better understand the response of secondary consumers to current and future natural and human-induced environmental changes.

Influence of Anthropogenic Noise for Predicting Cinereous Vulture Nest Distribution

Natural landscapes are increasingly under anthropogenic pressures, and concern about human impacts on wildlife populations is becoming particularly relevant in the case of natural areas affected by roads. The expansion of road networks is considered among the main factors threatening biodiversity due to their potential for disturbing natural ecosystems on large scales. Indeed, traffic noise pollution reduces the quantity and the quality of natural habitats, and umbrella species are frequently used as indicators of natural ecosystem health. In this sense, there is a variety of GIS-based ecological modeling tools that allow evaluation of the factors that influence species distributions in order to accurately predict habitat selection. In this study, we have combined the use of noise modeling tools and maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables for Cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) nesting habitat selection within a mountainous forest in Spain. As a result, we found that spatial negative influence of roads on wildlife due to road traffic disturbance may have been traditionally overestimated when it has been inferred from distance measurements of wildlife behavior in road surroundings instead of from considering road traffic noise level exposure. In addition, we found a potential risk threshold for cinereous vulture breeding around roads, which ties in with a Leq24h level of 40 dB(A). This may be a useful indicator for assessing the potential impact of human activities on an umbrella species such as, for instance, the cinereous vulture, whose breeding does not take place where road traffic Leq24h levels are higher than 40 dB(A).

Habitat suitability and demography, a time-dependent relationship

The habitat suitability index, which reflects spatial variability in species occurrence probability, has been shown to exhibit various contrasting relationships with local demographic performances (survival, productivity) in several species. One proposed explanation for these discrepancies is that the link between the habitat suitability index and demography is influenced by density-dependent, temporally variable processes. Based on the survival rates of more than 3,000 nests monitored over 12 years in the North African Houbara Bustard, we investigated whether the habitat suitability index computed over the species breeding range is related to nest survival throughout the breeding season, accounting for variation in meteorological conditions. We found that the relationship between the habitat suitability index and nest survival progressively changes along the breeding season and that this intra-annual variation is consistent between years. Our results support the hypothesis that variation in space use occurs intra-annually and that biotic interactions throughout the breeding season strongly influence the habitat suitability index-demography relationship.

Quantifying the demographic cost of human-related mortality to a raptor population

Raptors are exposed to a wide variety of human-related mortality agents, and yet population-level effects are rarely quantified. Doing so requires modeling vital rates in the context of species life-history, behavior, and population dynamics theory. In this paper, we explore the details of such an analysis by focusing on the demography of a resident, tree-nesting population of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the vicinity of an extensive (142 km²) windfarm in California. During 1994–2000, we tracked the fates of >250 radio-marked individuals of four life-stages and conducted five annual surveys of territory occupancy and reproduction. Collisions with wind turbines accounted for 41% of 88 uncensored fatalities, most of which were subadults and nonbreeding adults (floaters). A consistent overall male preponderance in the population meant that females were the limiting sex in this territorial, monogamous species. Estimates of potential population growth rate and associated variance indicated a stable breeding population, but one for which any further decrease in vital rates would require immigrant floaters to fill territory vacancies. Occupancy surveys 5 and 13 years later (2005 and 2013) showed that the nesting population remained intact, and no upward trend was apparent in the proportion of subadult eagles as pair members, a condition that would have suggested a deficit of adult replacements. However, the number of golden eagle pairs required to support windfarm mortality was large. We estimated that the entire annual reproductive output of 216–255 breeding pairs would have been necessary to support published estimates of 55–65 turbine blade-strike fatalities per year. Although the vital rates forming the basis for these calculations may have changed since the data were collected, our approach should be useful for gaining a clearer understanding of how anthropogenic mortality affects the health of raptor populations, particularly those species with delayed maturity and naturally low reproductive rates.