The ‘lawnification’ of Australia’s eastern grassy woodlands: the past, current and likely future spread of an invasive perennial grass, Bothriochloa pertusa

Many of today’s damaging invasive plants were intentionally introduced for pasture development and amenity. By examining the introduction history and consequent spread of these species, we can identify factors associated with their successful establishment and dominance. Using collated presence/absence and cover data, alongside a review of the literature and discussions with land managers, we present a comprehensive analysis of the introduction history and spread of the environmental and agricultural grassy weed, Bothriochloa pertusa (L.) A.Camus (Indian couch) throughout Queensland, Australia. Using this data, we also perform habitat suitability models to predict its potential distribution and local-scale cover across Queensland in relation to key environmental variables. We found that B. pertusa was introduced on multiple occasions and across a large area of Queensland, despite re-occurring doubts and poor evidence for its benefit to livestock production. Livestock grazing, associated disturbances (i.e. land clearing, soil erosion) and climatic extremes were commonly associated with its spread throughout the landscape. In 2020 the main area of B. pertusa invasion as indicated by occurrence records spanned 28,537,600 ha. Results from the habitat suitability models suggest the occurrence and local-scale cover of B. pertusa is largely determined by climate variables and the foliage projective cover of trees. Based on these results B. pertusa still has considerable capacity to spread and increase in dominance across many areas of Queensland, particularly further west and south of its current range. The introduction and spread history of B. pertusa suggests propagule pressure, traits, climate, land management and cultural perceptions are all key factors implicated in the spread of B. pertusa. Where B. pertusa has become dominant there has been a major shift in lifeform from native perennial tussock species to a grazing tolerant stoloniferous species. To slow this process of ‘lawnification’ we recommend more conservative grazing strategies and strategically selected protected areas to maintain cover of grazing sensitive native tussock grass species.

Distribution Pattern of Woody Plants in a Mountain Forest Ecosystem Influenced by Topography and Monsoons

Many areas are affected by the monsoon because of different sea and land positions. At the same time, the blocking effect of a mountain range forms different habitats on both sides of the mountain range. However, the distribution mechanism of woody plants is unclear in mountain forest ecosystems influenced by topography and monsoons. In this study, 10 plots, each with an area of 1 hm2 (100 m × 100 m), were randomly established on the south and north aspects of a mountain forest. We examined community structure differences and distribution preferences of woody plants on both sides of the mountain. Our findings were as follows: (1) The characteristics of woody plant assemblages differed among various aspects. (2) Network analysis showed that specialization index was 0.186 and modularity index was 0.235, and the torus translation test showed that a total of 45 species were detected to be associated with at least one of the habitats (45/106, 42.45%). (3) The community stability of the south aspect was higher than that of the north aspect. Our findings suggest that the distribution of woody plants among different aspects was specialized and not random in alpine forest ecosystems. This study contributes to a clear understanding of the distribution mechanism of woody plants in mountain forest ecosystems influenced by topography and monsoons.

Interaction of traffic intensity and habitat features shape invasion dynamics of an invasive alien species (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in a regional road network

Road corridors are important conduits for plant invasions, and an understanding of the underlying mechanisms is necessary for efficient management of invasive alien species in road networks. Previous studies identified road type with different traffic volumes as a key driver of seed dispersal and abundance of alien plants along roads. However, how the intensity of traffic interacts with the habitat features of roadsides in shaping invasion processes is not sufficiently understood. To elucidate these interactions, we analyzed the population dynamics of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), a common non-indigenous annual species in Europe and other continents, in a regional road network in Germany. Over a period of five years, we recorded plant densities at roadsides along four types of road corridors, subject to different intensities of traffic, and with a total length of about 300 km. We also classified roadsides in regard to habitat features (disturbance, shade). This allowed us to determine corridor- and habitat-specific mean population growth rates and spatial-temporal shifts in roadside plant abundances at the regional scale. Our results show that both traffic intensity and roadside habitat features significantly affect the population dynamics of ragweed. The combination of high traffic intensity and high disturbance intensity led to the highest mean population growth whereas population growth in less suitable habitats (e.g. shaded roadsides) declined with decreasing traffic intensity. We conclude that high traffic facilitates ragweed invasion along roads, likely due to continued seed dispersal, and can compensate partly for less suitable habitat features (i.e. shade) that decrease population growth along less trafficked roads. As a practical implication, management efforts to decline ragweed invasions within road networks (e.g. by repeated mowing) should be prioritized along high trafficked roads, and roadside with disturbed, open habitats should be reduced as far as possible, e.g. by establishing grassland from the regional species pool.

Emerging invasion threat of the liana Celastrus orbiculatus (Celastraceae) in Europe

The woody vine Celastrus orbiculatus (Celastraceae), Oriental bittersweet, is an alien species that recently has been found to be spreading in Europe. Many aspects of its biology and ecology are still obscure. This study evaluates the distribution and habitats, as well as size and age of stands of C. orbiculatus in Lithuania. We investigated whether meteorological factors affect radial stem increments and determined seedling recruitment in order to judge the plant’s potential for further spread in Europe. We studied the flower gender of C. orbiculatus in four populations in Lithuania and found that all sampled individuals were monoecious, although with dominant either functionally female or male flowers. Dendrochronological methods enabled us to reveal the approximate time of the first establishment of populations of C. orbiculatus in Lithuania. The youngest recorded individual with fruits was determined to be 10 years old. Analysis of radial increments revealed no reliable correlations with meteorological conditions. Therefore, we conclude that climatic conditions in the region are favourable for the growth, reproduction, and invasion of this species. C. orbiculatus produces viable seeds, successfully reproduces and spreads within and around the established stands. The presence of seedlings and two- to four-year-old saplings in the population confirms constant generative recruitment. Available information on the distribution of C. orbiculatus in Europe revealed its existence in 13 countries. In total, 58 occurrences of this species have been recorded in Europe so far. We consider that the lag period lasted until 2005 and that the exponential population growth phase has now set in. In Lithuania, the invaded area is quite small (0.51 ha); however, the total estimated invaded area in Europe could be about 250 ha. At the current stage of invasion and distribution in Europe, measures for control, management, and eradication of C. orbiculatus have a chance of being effective and economically feasible.

Simple yet effective: Historical proximity variables improve the species distribution models for invasive giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum s.l.) in Poland

Species distribution models are scarcely applicable to invasive species because of their breaking of the models' assumptions. So far, few mechanistic, semi-mechanistic or statistical solutions like dispersal constraints or propagule limitation have been applied. We evaluated a novel quasi-semi-mechanistic approach for regional scale models, using historical proximity variables (HPV) representing a state of the population in a given moment in the past. Our aim was to test the effects of addition of HPV sets of different minimal recentness, information capacity and the total number of variables on the quality of the species distribution model for Heracleum mantegazzianum on 116000 km2 in Poland. As environmental predictors, we used fragments of 103 1×1 km, world- wide, free-access rasters from WorldGrids.org. Single and ensemble models were computed using BIOMOD2 package 3.1.47 working in R environment 3.1.0. The addition of HPV improved the quality of single and ensemble models from poor to good and excellent. The quality was the highest for the variants with HPVs based on the distance from the most recent past occurrences. It was mostly affected by the algorithm type, but all HPV traits (minimal recentness, information capacity, model type or the number of the time periods) were significantly important determinants. The addition of HPVs improved the quality of current projections, raising the occurrence probability in regions where the species had occurred before. We conclude that HPV addition enables semi-realistic estimation of the rate of spread and can be applied to the short-term forecasting of invasive or declining species, which also break equal-dispersal probability assumptions.

New pasture plants intensify invasive species risk

Agricultural intensification is critical to meet global food demand, but intensification threatens native species and degrades ecosystems. Sustainable intensification (SI) is heralded as a new approach for enabling growth in agriculture while minimizing environmental impacts. However, the SI literature has overlooked a major environmental risk. Using data from eight countries on six continents, we show that few governments regulate conventionally bred pasture taxa to limit threats to natural areas, even though most agribusinesses promote taxa with substantial weed risk. New pasture taxa (including species, subspecies, varieties, cultivars, and plant-endophyte combinations) are bred with characteristics typical of invasive species and environmental weeds. By introducing novel genetic and endophyte variation, pasture taxa are imbued with additional capacity for invasion and environmental impact. New strategies to prevent future problems are urgently needed. We highlight opportunities for researchers, agribusiness, and consumers to reduce environmental risks associated with new pasture taxa. We also emphasize four main approaches that governments could consider as they build new policies to limit weed risks, including (i) national lists of taxa that are prohibited based on environmental risk; (ii) a weed risk assessment for all new taxa; (iii) a program to rapidly detect and control new taxa that invade natural areas; and (iv) the polluter-pays principle, so that if a taxon becomes an environmental weed, industry pays for its management. There is mounting pressure to increase livestock production. With foresight and planning, growth in agriculture can be achieved sustainably provided that the scope of SI expands to encompass environmental weed risks.

Local-scale biotic interactions embedded in macroscale climate drivers suggest Eltonian noise hypothesis distribution patterns for an invasive grass

A hierarchical view of niche relations reconciles the scale-dependent effects of abiotic and biotic processes on species distribution patterns and underlies most current approaches to distribution modeling. A key prediction of this framework is that the effects of biotic interactions will be averaged out at macroscales - an idea termed the Eltonian noise hypothesis (ENH). We test this prediction by quantifying regional variation in local abiotic and biotic niche relations and assess the role of macroclimate in structuring biotic interactions, using a non-native invasive grass, Microstegium vimineum, in its introduced range. Consistent with hierarchical niche relations and the ENH, macroclimate structures local biotic interactions, while local abiotic relations are regionally conserved. Biotic interactions suppress M. vimineum in drier climates but have little effect in wetter climates. A similar approach could be used to identify the macroclimatic conditions under which biotic interactions affect the accuracy of local predictions of species distributions.