Multifaceted responses of vegetation to average and extreme climate change over global drylands

Average climatic events describe the occurrence of weather or climate at an average value, whereas extreme events are defined as events that exceed the upper or lower threshold value of statistical or observational average climatic events. This study investigated the impacts of both average climate change (ACC) (i.e., average precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration [PET]) and extreme climate change (ECC) (i.e., five precipitation and five temperature extremes) on dryland vegetation based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatial divergences of ACC and ECC in affecting changes in NDVI over drylands were determined using the geographical detector model. In this study, the growth of vegetation in 40.29 % of global drylands was driven by average precipitation and this dominant effect also occurred in all the plant species, particularly shrubs. However, the sensitivity of grassland to average precipitation exceeded that of most of the woody vegetation. The average temperature and PET controlled 28.64 % and 31.07 % of the changes in NDVI, respectively. Precipitation extremes (except for consecutive dry days and consecutive wet days) and warm temperature extremes (WTE) had positive influences on dryland vegetation, and the effect of WTE on NDVI exceeded that of the remaining temperature extremes. Temperature extremes exerted more significant effects than precipitation extremes for changes in the grassland NDVI. In contrast, the variations in shrub NDVI were primarily dominated by precipitation extremes. We also found that the impacts of parts of average and extreme climatic factors on vegetation had changed over time. Furthermore, temperature extremes had far exceeded the average temperature in affecting vegetation growth at the spatial scale, and this action gradually intensified from 1982 to 2015. The influences of all precipitation extremes were weaker than those of the average precipitation. Those can offer scientific references for ecosystem protection in drylands.

An ecohydrological journey of 4500 years reveals a stable but threatened precipitation-groundwater recharge relation around Jerusalem

Groundwater is a key water resource in semiarid and seasonally dry regions around the world, which is replenished by intermittent precipitation events and mediated by vegetation, soil, and regolith properties. Here, a climate reconstruction of 4500 years for the Jerusalem region was used to determine the relation between climate, vegetation, and groundwater recharge. Despite changes in air temperature and vegetation characteristics, simulated recharge remained linearly related to precipitation over the entire analyzed period, with drier decades having lower rates of recharge for a given annual precipitation due to soil memory effects. We show that in recent decades, the lack of changes in the precipitation–groundwater recharge relation results from the compensating responses of vegetation to increasing CO₂, i.e., increased leaf area and reduced stomatal conductance. This multicentury relation is expected to be modified by climate change, with changes up to −20% in recharge for unchanged precipitation, potentially jeopardizing water resource availability.

Vegetation state changes in the course of shrub encroachment in an African savanna since about 1850 CE and their potential drivers

Shrub encroachment has far-reaching ecological and economic consequences in many ecosystems worldwide. Yet, compositional changes associated with shrub encroachment are often overlooked despite having important effects on ecosystem functioning.We document the compositional change and potential drivers for a northern Namibian Combretum woodland transitioning into a Terminalia shrubland. We use a multiproxy record (pollen, sedimentary ancient DNA, biomarkers, compound-specific carbon (δ13C) and deuterium (δD) isotopes, bulk carbon isotopes (δ13Corg), grain size, geochemical properties) from Lake Otjikoto at high taxonomical and temporal resolution.We provide evidence that state changes in semiarid environments may occur on a scale of one century and that transitions between stable states can span around 80 years and are characterized by a unique vegetation composition. We demonstrate that the current grass/woody ratio is exceptional for the last 170 years, as supported by n-alkane distributions and the δ13C and δ13Corg records. Comparing vegetation records to environmental proxy data and census data, we infer a complex network of global and local drivers of vegetation change. While our δD record suggests physiological adaptations of woody species to higher atmospheric pCO2 concentration and drought, our vegetation records reflect the impact of broad-scale logging for the mining industry, and the macrocharcoal record suggests a decrease in fire activity associated with the intensification of farming. Impact of selective grazing is reflected by changes in abundance and taxonomical composition of grasses and by an increase of nonpalatable and trampling-resistant taxa. In addition, grain-size and spore records suggest changes in the erodibility of soils because of reduced grass cover. Synthesis. We conclude that transitions to an encroached savanna state are supported by gradual environmental changes induced by management strategies, which affected the resilience of savanna ecosystems. In addition, feedback mechanisms that reflect the interplay between management legacies and climate change maintain the encroached state.

Mapping precipitation-corrected NDVI trends across Namibia

Savannas comprise a major component of the Earth system and contribute ecosystem services and functions essential to human livelihoods. Monitoring spatial and temporal trends in savanna vegetation and understanding change drivers is therefore crucial. Widespread greening has been identified across southern Africa; yet its drivers and manifestations on the ground remain ambiguous. This study removes the effects of precipitation on an NDVI time-series, thereby identifying trends not driven by rainfall. It utilizes the significant correlation between vegetation and precipitation as captured using MODIS and rainfall estimates. A linear regression between variables was used to derive its residual (corrected) time-series, and the rate and spatial extent of trends were evaluated in relation to biomes. A random sample-based qualitative interpretation of high spatial resolution imagery was then used to evaluate the nature of the trend on the ground. 23.25% of the country, including all biomes exhibited positive trends. We propose that greening may be related to a reduction in woody species richness, loss of the large trees and a shift towards drought tolerant shrub species, as has been shown in other sub-Saharan environments. 3.23% of the country exhibited negative trends, which were mostly associated with more humid (forested) regions pointing to deforestation as a cause; these manifested as vegetation clearing, identifiable using high resolution multi-temporal imagery. Greening trends could not be identified using this approach; instead, they point to the occurrence of gradual vegetation change caused by indirect drivers.

Mapping gains and losses in woody vegetation across global tropical drylands

Woody vegetation in global tropical drylands is of significant importance for both the interannual variability of the carbon cycle and local livelihoods. Satellite observations over the past decades provide a unique way to assess the vegetation long-term dynamics across biomes worldwide. Yet, the actual changes in the woody vegetation are always hidden by interannual fluctuations of the leaf density, because the most widely used remote sensing data are primarily related to the photosynthetically active vegetation components. Here, we quantify the temporal trends of the nonphotosynthetic woody components (i.e., stems and branches) in global tropical drylands during 2000-2012 using the vegetation optical depth (VOD), retrieved from passive microwave observations. This is achieved by a novel method focusing on the dry season period to minimize the influence of herbaceous vegetation and using MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to remove the interannual fluctuations of the woody leaf component. We revealed significant trends (P < 0.05) in the woody component (VOD_wood ) in 35% of the areas characterized by a nonsignificant trend in the leaf component (VOD_leaf modeled from NDVI), indicating pronounced gradual growth/decline in woody vegetation not captured by traditional assessments. The method is validated using a unique record of ground measurements from the semiarid Sahel and shows a strong agreement between changes in VOD_wood and changes in ground observed woody cover (r²  = 0.78). Reliability of the obtained woody component trends is also supported by a review of relevant literatures for eight hot spot regions of change. The proposed approach is expected to contribute to an improved assessment of, for example, changes in dryland carbon pools.