The unique prognostic characteristics of tumor deposits in colorectal cancer patients

A nomogram prediction model based on clinicopathological combined radiological features for metachronous liver metastasis of colorectal cancer

Objective: To establish a nomogram prediction model (based on clinicopathological and radiological features) for the development of metachronous liver metastasis (MLM) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). Methods: This retrospective study included patients with CRC who underwent surgery at Changshu No.1 People's Hospital and the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University between January 2016 and December 2018. The clinical, pathological, and radiological features of each patient were investigated. Risk factors for MLM were identified by univariable and multivariable analyses. The predictive nomogram for MLM development was constructed. The predictive performance of the nomogram was estimated by the receiver operating characteristics curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. Results: This study included 161 patients with CRC [median age: 66 (range, 33-87) years]. Fifty-nine developed MLM after a median of 12 (range, 2-52) months after surgery. The multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that age >66 years (OR=3.471, 95% CI: 1.272-9.473, P=0.015), N2 stage (OR=6.534, 95% CI: 1.456-29.317, P=0.014), positive vascular invasion (OR=2.995, 95% CI: 1.132-7.926, P=0.027), positive tumor deposit (OR=4.451, 95% CI: 1.153-17.179, P=0.030), and linear (OR=6.774, 95% CI: 1.306-35.135, P=0.023) and nodal pericolic fat infiltration patterns (OR=8.762, 95% CI: 1.521-50.457, P=0.015) were independently associated with MLM. These five factors were used to create a nomogram. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of the nomogram was 0.866 (95% CI: 0.803-0.914), indicating favorable prediction performance. The calibration curve of the nomogram showed a satisfactory agreement between the predicted and actual probabilities. Conclusions: A nomogram prediction model based on five clinicopathological and radiological features might have favorable prediction performance for MLM in patients who underwent surgery for CRC. Hence, the present study proposes a nomogram that can easily be used to predict MLM after CRC surgery based on readily available features.

Presence of tumor deposits is a strong indicator of poor outcome in patients with stage III colorectal cancers undergoing radical surgery

BACKGROUND

Tumor deposits (TDs) are emerging as an adverse prognostic factor in colorectal cancers (CRCs). However, TDs are somewhat neglected in the current staging system. It has been proposed either to add the TD count to the number of metastatic lymph nodes or to consider TDs as distant metastases; however, the scientific basis for these proposals seems questionable. This study aimed to investigate a new staging system.

METHODS

A total of 243 consecutive patients with stage III CRC who were undergoing curative resection and adjuvant chemotherapy were included. Each substage of stage III TNM was split according to the absence or presence of TDs. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and bootstrap methods were used to compare the current vs the new competing staging system in terms of oncologic outcome prediction.

RESULTS

A high rate of TDs was recorded (124 cases [51%]). TDs were correlated with other adverse prognostic indicators, particularly vascular and perineural invasions, and showed a negative correlation with the number of removed lymph nodes, suggesting a possible multimodal origin. In addition, TDs were confirmed to have a negative impact on oncologic outcome, regardless of their counts. Compared with the current staging system, the new classification displayed higher values at survival ROC analysis, a significantly better stratification of patients, and effective identification of patients at high risk of recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

TDs negatively affect the prognosis in CRCs. A revision of the staging system could be useful to optimize treatments. The proposed new classification is easy to implement and more accurate than the current one. This study was registered online on the ClinicalTrials.gov website under the following identifier: NCT05923450.

MRI-based multiregional radiomics for preoperative prediction of tumor deposit and prognosis in resectable rectal cancer: a bicenter study

OBJECTIVE

To build T2WI-based multiregional radiomics for predicting tumor deposit (TD) and prognosis in patients with resectable rectal cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 208 patients with pathologically confirmed rectal cancer from two hospitals were prospectively enrolled. Intra- and peritumoral features were extracted separately from T2WI images and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was used to screen the most valuable radiomics features. Clinical-radiomics nomogram was developed by radiomics signatures and the most predictive clinical parameters. Prognostic model for 3-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) was constructed using univariate and multivariate Cox analysis.

RESULTS

For TD, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for intratumoral radiomics model was 0.956, 0.823, and 0.860 in the training cohort, test cohort, and external validation cohort, respectively. AUC for the peritumoral radiomics model was 0.929, 0.906, and 0.773 in the training cohort, test cohort, and external validation cohort, respectively. The AUC for combined intra- and peritumoral radiomics model was 0.976, 0.918, and 0.874 in the training cohort, test cohort, and external validation cohort, respectively. The AUC for clinical-radiomics nomogram was 0.989, 0.777, and 0.870 in the training cohort, test cohort, and external validation cohort, respectively. The prognostic model constructed by combining intra- and peritumoral radiomics signature score (radscore)-based TD and MRI-reported lymph nodes metastasis (LNM) indicated good performance for predicting 3-year RFS, with AUC of 0.824, 0.865, and 0.738 in the training cohort, test cohort and external validation cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Combined intra- and peritumoral radiomics model showed good performance for predicting TD. Combining intra- and peritumoral radscore-based TD and MRI-reported LNM indicated the recurrence risk.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

Combined intra- and peritumoral radiomics model could help accurately predict tumor deposits. Combining this predictive model-based tumor deposits with MRI-reported lymph node metastasis was associated with relapse risk of rectal cancer after surgery.

KEY POINTS

• Combined intra- and peritumoral radiomics model provided better diagnostic performance than that of intratumoral and peritumoral radiomics model alone for predicting TD in rectal cancer. • The predictive performance of the clinical-radiomics nomogram was not improved compared with the combined intra- and peritumoral radiomics model for predicting TD. • The prognostic model constructed by combining intra- and peritumoral radscore-based TD and MRI-reported LNM showed good performance for assessing 3-year RFS.

A different perspective on 18F-FDG PET radiomics in colorectal cancer patients: The relationship between intra & peritumoral analysis and pathological findings

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine the value of 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) based primary tumoral and peritumoral radiomics in the prediction of tumor deposits (TDs), tumor budding (TB) and extramural venous invasion (EMVI) of colorectal cancer (CRC).

METHODS

Our retrospective study included 77 CRC patients who had preoperative 18F-FDG PET/CT between June 2020 and February 2022. A total of 131 radiomic features were extracted from primary tumors and peritumoral areas on PET/CT fusion images. The relationship between TDs, TB, EMVI and T stage in the postoperative pathology of the tumors and radiomic features was investigated. Features with a correlation coefficient (CC) less than 0.8 were analyzed by logistic regression. The area under curve (AUC) obtained from the receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to measure the model performance.

RESULTS

A model was developed from primary tumoral and peritumoral radiomics data to predict T stage (AUC 0.931), and also a predictive model was constructed from primary tumor derived radiomics to predict EMVI (AUC 0.739). Radiomic data derived from the primary tumor was obtained as a predictive prognostic factor in predicting TDs and a peritumoral feature was found to be a prognostic factor in predicting TB.

CONCLUSIONS

Intratumoral and peritumoral radiomics derived from 18F-FDG PET/CT are useful for non-invasive early prediction of pathological features that have important implications in the management of CRC.

Development and validation of a nomogram for preoperative prediction of tumor deposits in colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Based on the clinical data of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients who underwent surgery at our institution, a model for predicting the formation of tumor deposits (TDs) in this patient population was established.

AIM

To establish an effective model for predicting TD formation, thus enabling clinicians to identify CRC patients at high risk for TDs and implement personalized treatment strategies.

METHODS

CRC patients (n = 645) who met the inclusion criteria were randomly divided into training (n = 452) and validation (n = 193) cohorts using a 7:3 ratio in this retrospective analysis. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was employed to screen potential risk factors, and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors. Subsequently, a predictive model for TD formation in CRC patients was constructed based on the independent risk factors. The discrimination ability of the model, its consistency with actual results, and its clinical applicability were evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic curves, area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Thirty-four (7.5%) patients with TDs were identified in the training cohort based on postoperative pathological specimens. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified female sex, preoperative intestinal obstruction, left-sided CRC, and lymph node metastasis as independent risk factors for TD formation. The AUCs of the nomogram models constructed using these variables were 0.839 and 0.853 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curve demonstrated good consistency, and the training cohort DCA yielded a threshold probability of 7%-78%.

CONCLUSION

This study developed and validated a nomogram with good predictive performance for identifying TDs in CRC patients. Our predictive model can assist surgeons in making optimal treatment decisions.

Readjustment of nodal staging by integrating tumor deposits and positive lymph nodes in patients with stage III colon cancer: a population-based analysis

Whether tumor deposits (TDs) should be classified as lymph node metastasis or distant metastasis remains controversial. To address this predicament, we conducted this study to identify the predictive value of TDs on the survival of patients diagnosed with stage III colon cancer (CC). 12,904 eligible patients diagnosed with stage III CC between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The best cutoff point of TD quantity was determined based on the difference in survival. Cox proportional hazards model was employed to perform univariate and multivariate analyses. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were performed to calculate the differences between overall survival (OS). Our results showed that the number of TDs was a significant prognostic factor in patients with stage III CC (P < 0.0001). We added the number of TDs to the pN stage and devised a new pN stage, there were no significant differences in the survival of npN, except npN2a (P > 0.05). Upon re-staging to the same npN stage, the difference in survival between TDs+ and TDs- disappeared (P > 0.05). The median survival times for N2aTDs > 4 and N2bTDs > 4 were 33 and 37 months, respectively, which were significantly shorter than that of N2TDs- (65 months) and represented the worst survival rates among all groups. In conclusion, the number of TDs indicated a poor prognosis for patients with stage III CC. Incorporating TDs into the pN is feasible to predict prognosis.

A nomogram for preoperative differentiation of tumor deposits from lymph node metastasis in rectal cancer: A retrospective study

The objective is to develop and validate a combined model for noninvasive preoperative differentiating tumor deposits (TDs) from lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with rectal cancer (RC). A total of 204 patients were enrolled and randomly divided into 2 sets (training and validation set) at a ratio of 8:2. Radiomics features of tumor and peritumor fat were extracted by using Pyradiomics software from the axial T2-weighted imaging of MRI. Rad-score based on extracted Radiomics features were calculated by combination of feature selection and the machine learning method. Factors (Rad-score, laboratory test factor, clinical factor, traditional characters of tumor on MRI) with statistical significance were integrated to build a combined model. The combined model was visualized by a nomogram, and its distinguish ability, diagnostic accuracy, and clinical utility were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis, calibration curve, and clinical decision curve, respectively. Carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9, MRI reported node stage (MRI-N stage), tumor volume (cm3), and Rad-score were all included in the combined model (odds ratio = 3.881 for Rad-score, 2.859 for CA19-9, 0.411 for MRI-N stage, and 1.055 for tumor volume). The distinguish ability of the combined model in the training and validation cohorts was area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.863, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.8-0.911 and 0.815, 95% CI: 0.663-0.919, respectively. And the combined model outperformed the clinical model in both training and validation cohorts (AUC = 0.863 vs 0.749, 0.815 vs 0.627, P = .0022, .0302), outperformed the Rad-score model only in training cohorts (AUC = 0.863 vs 0.819, P = .0283). The combined model had highest net benefit and showed good diagnostic accuracy. The combined model incorporating Rad-score and clinical factors could provide a preoperative differentiation of TD from LNM and guide clinicians in making individualized treatment strategy for patients with RC.

Prognostic Value of Combined Hematological/Biochemical Indexes and Tumor Clinicopathologic Features in Colorectal Cancer Patients—A Pilot Single Center Study

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a significant public health problem. There is increasing evidence that the host’s immune response and nutritional status play a role in the development and progression of cancer. The aim of our study was to examine the prognostic value of clinical markers/indexes of inflammation, nutritional and pathohistological status in relation to overall survival and disease free-survival in CRC. The total number of CRC patients included in the study was 111 and they underwent laboratory analyses within a week before surgery. Detailed pathohistological analysis and laboratory parameters were part of the standard hospital pre-operative procedure. Medical data were collected from archived hospital data. Data on the exact date of death were obtained by inspecting the death registers for the territory of the Republic of Serbia. All parameters were analyzed in relation to the overall survival and survival period without disease relapse. The follow-up median was 42 (24−48) months. The patients with the III, IV and V degrees of the Clavien–Dindo classification had 2.609 (HR: 2.609; 95% CI: 1.437−4.737; p = 0.002) times higher risk of death. The modified Glasgow prognostic score (mGPS) 2 and higher lymph node ratio carried a 2.188 (HR: 2.188; 95% CI: 1.413−3.387; p < 0.001) and 6.862 (HR: 6.862; 95% CI: 1.635−28.808; p = 0.009) times higher risk of death in the postoperative period, respectively; the risk was 3.089 times higher (HR: 3.089; 95% CI: 1.447−6.593; p = 0.004) in patients with verified tumor deposits. The patients with tumor deposits had 1.888 (HR: 1.888; 95% CI: 1024−3481; p = 0.042) and 3.049 (HR: 3.049; 95% CI: 1.206−7.706; p = 0.018) times higher risk of disease recurrence, respectively. The emphasized peritumoral lymphocyte response reduced the risk of recurrence by 61% (HR: 0.391; 95% CI: 0.196−0.780; p = 0.005). Standard perioperative laboratory and pathohistological parameters, which do not present any additional cost for the health system, may provide information on the CRC patient outcome and lay the groundwork for a larger prospective examination.

New Histoprognostic Factors to Consider for the Staging of Colon Cancers: Tumor Deposits, Invasive Tumor Infiltration and High-Grade Budding

Colorectal cancer is a major public health issue due to its high incidence and mortality. It is, therefore, essential to identify histological markers for prognostic purposes and to optimize the therapeutic management of patients. The main objective of our study was to analyze the impact of new histoprognostic factors, such as tumor deposits, budding, poorly differentiated clusters, mode of infiltration, the intensity of inflammatory infiltrate and the type of tumor stroma, on the survival of patients with colon cancer. Two hundred and twenty-nine resected colon cancers were fully histologically reviewed, and survival and recurrence data were collected. Survival was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves. A univariate and multivariate Cox model was constructed to identify prognostic factors for overall survival and recurrence-free survival. The median overall survival of the patients was 60.2 months and the median recurrence-free survival was 46.9 months. Overall survival and recurrence-free survival were significantly worse in the presence of isolated tumor deposits (log rank = 0.003 and 0.001, respectively) and for an infiltrative type of tumor invasion (log rank = 0.008 and 0.02, respectively). High-grade budding was associated with a poor prognosis, with no significant difference. We did not find a significant prognostic impact of the presence of poorly differentiated clusters, the intensity of the inflammatory infiltrate or the stromal type. In conclusion, the analysis of these recent histoprognostic factors, such as tumor deposits, mode of infiltration, and budding, could be integrated into the results of pathological reports of colon cancers. Thus, the therapeutic management of patients could be adjusted by providing more aggressive treatments in the presence of some of these factors.

Construction of a predictive model for clinical survival in male patients with non-metastatic rectal adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

No clinical prediction model is available for non-metastatic rectal adenocarcinoma in males. Based on demographic and clinicopathological characteristics, we constructed a survival prediction model for the study population.

METHODS

At a ratio of 7:3, 3450 eligible patients were divided into training and validation sets. Optimal cutoff values were calculated using X-tile software. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to find prognostic factors for cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Corresponding nomogram prognostic models were also constructed based on predictors.The validity, discriminative ability, predictability, and clinical usefulness of the model were analyzed and assessed.

RESULTS

We identified predictors of survival in the target population and successfully constructed nomograms. In the nomogram prediction model for OS and CSS, the C-index was 0.724 and 0.735, respectively, for the training group and 0.754 and 0.760, respectively, for the validation group. In the validation group, the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve for OS and CSS nomograms was 0.768 and 0.769, respectively, for the 3-year survival rate and 0.755 and 0.747, respectively, for the 5-year survival rate. Kaplan-Meier Survival Curves showed excellent risk discrimination performance of the nomogram (P < 0.05) Calibration curves, time-dependent AUC and decision curve analysis showed that the prediction model constructed in this study had excellent clinical prediction and decision ability and performed better than the TNM staging system.

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram is helpful to evaluate the prognosis of non-metastatic male patients with rectal adenocarcinoma and has guiding significance for clinical treatment.

Establishment and validation of a postoperative predictive model for patients with colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to develop comprehensive and effective nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates in patients with colorectal mucinous adenocarcinoma (CRMA).

METHODS

A total of 4711 CRMA patients who underwent radical surgery between 2010 and 2018 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were collected and randomized into development (n=3299) and validation (n=1412) cohorts at a ratio of 7:3 for model development and validation. OS and CSS nomograms were developed using the prognostic factors from the development cohort after multivariable Cox regression analysis. The performance of the nomograms was evaluated using Harrell's concordance index (C-index), calibration diagrams, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

The study included 4711 patients. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that age, tumor size, grade, pT stage, pN stage, M stage, carcinoembryonic antigen, perineural invasion, tumor deposits, regional nodes examined, and chemotherapy were correlated with OS and CSS. Marital status was independently related to OS. In the development and validation cohorts, the C-index of OS was 0.766 and 0.744, respectively, and the C-index of CSS was 0.826 and 0.809, respectively. Calibration curves and ROC curves showed predictive accuracy. DCA showed that the nomograms had excellent potency over the 8th edition of the TNM staging system with higher clinical net benefits. Significant differences in OS and CSS were observed among low-, medium-, and high-risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Nomograms were developed for the first time to predict personalized 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS in CRMA postoperative patients. External and internal validation confirmed the excellent discrimination and calibration ability of the nomograms. The nomograms can help clinicians design personalized treatment strategies and assist with clinical decisions.

Prognostic Value of Tumor Deposit Counts in Patients with Stage III Colorectal Cancer: A Population-Based Study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the prognostic value of tumor deposits (TDs) counts in stage III colorectal cancer (CRC) patients and develop a prognostic nomogram.

METHODS

Data on stage III CRC patients from 2010 to 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to assess differences in survival outcomes among patients. The Cox regression analysis was performed to establish the independent prognostic factors for cancer-specific survival and to establish a nomogram. The nomograms' performance was evaluated by calibration plots and concordance index (C-index). Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical utility of the prediction model.

RESULTS

A total of 23,345 CRC patients were included in this study, and 3,578 (15.3%) had TDs. Cox multivariate regression analyses revealed that age, race, histological tumor grade, the administered chemotherapy, pathological type, T-stage, CEA, N-stage, peripheral nerve invasion, and TDs were independent prognostic factors. Patients with many TDs (=0/1-4, HR: 1.325,/≥5 HR: 2.223) had poorer cancer-specific survival. The prognostic value of the number of TDs was comparable to that of lymph node metastasis. The C-indices of the nomogram were superior to TNM staging in training (0.730 vs 0.646) and validation (0.714 vs 0.636) groups. DCA revealed that the nomogram had a higher clinical net benefit compared to TNM staging.

CONCLUSIONS

TDs count is an adverse prognostic factor for stage III CRC patients. Furthermore, the TDs-based nomogram can accurately predict the prognostic outcomes for stage III CRC.

Prognostic significance of MR identified EMVI, tumour deposits, mesorectal nodes and pelvic side wall disease in locally advanced rectal cancer

AIM

To study the prognostic significance of MRI identified tumour deposits (TD), extramural vascular invasion (EMVI), lymph node metastases (LNM) and pelvic sidewall (PSW) disease in rectal cancer.

METHODS

This IRB approved study was conducted on patients with stage IIA-IIIC rectal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant long course chemoradiotherapy (LCCRT) and total mesorectal excision (TME) type of surgery between 2012-2018. A radiologist blinded to outcome reviewed staging and restaging magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for TD, EMVI, LNM and PSW. The agreement between four radiologists was studied and we obtained outcome data from a prospectively maintained database. The prognostic significance of imaging findings was assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 297 (186 males) patients with a mean age of 47.3 (SD14.4) years were included in the study. The majority had T3 (n = 206) or T4 (n = 59) stage disease. The mean duration of follow-up was 49.3 ± 25 months (6.6-101 months). 5-year overall (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) was 84% and 74%, respectively. Staging and restaging MRI had EMVI in 49.5% and 31.3%; TD in 47.5% and 31.6%; LNM in 61.1% and 38.1% and PSW in 11.4% and 6.1%. OS was adversely affected by EMVI, TD and PSW with the adjusted HR (aHR) of 3.32, 3.31, 3.27 for staging MRI and 2.99, 3.1, 2.81 for restaging MRI, respectively, p < 0.05. DFS was affected by EMVI (aHR = 1.85, 2.33) and TD (aHR = 1.83, 2.19), p < 0.05. Persistence of these findings after LCCRT led to worst outcome. Intra- and interobserver agreement for EMVI, TD and LN was 0.789, 0.734, 0.406 and 0.449, 0.354, 0.376, respectively, p < 0.001.

CONCLUSIONS

MRI identified that TD, EMVI and PSW disease are independent poor prognostic indicators in rectal cancer patients. Interobserver agreement for these findings was moderate to fair.

How Best to Play the Role of Tumor Deposits in Stage III Colon Cancer?

Background

The purpose of this study is to comprehensively evaluate the prognostic role of tumor deposits (TD) in stage III colon cancer.

Methods

24,600 CC patients with III stage colon cancer were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database and 618 CC patients from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University. All patients were divided into development, internal, and external validation cohorts. The combination of positive lymph nodes (PLN) and the status or number of TD was defined as modified pN (mpN) and novel pN (npN). The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to analyze the relationship between cancer-specific survival (CSS) and mpN or npN. CSS stratified by pN, mpN, and npN was analyzed by the Kaplan–Meier curves. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to demonstrate the predictive abilities of the pN, mpN, and npN stages. The validation cohorts were used to validate the results.

Results

The Cox proportional hazard regression model showed that mpN and npN were an independent prognostic factor for CSS. AUC showed that the predictive accuracy of mpN was better than that of the pN stage for 5-year CSS in the development (0.621 vs. 0.609, p < 0.001) and internal validation cohorts (0.618 vs. 0.612, p = 0.016) and the npN was also better than the pN stage for 5-year CSS in the development (0.623 vs. 0.609, p < 0.001) and internal validation cohorts (0.620 vs. 0.612, p = 0.001). However, there was no significant difference between the AUCs of mpN and npN. Moreover, the pN stage for 5-year CSS in the external validation cohort is 0.606 vs. 0.563, p = 0.045.

Conclusions

In stage III CC, mpN and npN may be superior to the pN stage in assessing prognosis, suggesting that the TD information should be included in the pN stage.

The value of tumor deposits in evaluating colorectal cancer survival and metastasis: a population-based retrospective cohort study

Background

The role of tumor deposits (TDs) in TNM staging of colorectal cancer is controversial, especially the relationship with distant metastasis.

Purpose

This study aimed to determine the effect of TDs on the survival of colorectal cancer and the occurrence of distant metastasis and to determine whether TDs (+) patients behaved similarly to stage IV patients.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of CRC patients from two large independent cohorts from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database (n = 58775) and the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University (n = 742).

Results

Univariate logistic analyses revealed that TDs are an independent predictor of liver metastasis [p < 0.001; odds ratio (OR): 5.738; 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.560–9.248] in the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University’s patients. Meanwhile, TDs are also an independent predictor of isolated organ metastasis [p <0.001; odds ratio (OR): 3.028; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.414–3.79; multiple organ metastases [p < 0.001; odds ratio (OR): 4.778; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.109–5.556]; isolated liver metastasis [p < 0.001; odds ratio (OR): 4.395; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.099–4.713] and isolated lung metastasis [p < 0.001; odds ratio (OR): 5.738; 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.560–9.248] in the SEER database. Multivariate analyses suggested TDs are an independent poor prognostic factor for distant metastasis (p <0.001).

Conclusions

Our results have shown that compared with patients with negative TDs, CRC patients with positive TDs are more likely to develop distant metastasis. Patients categorized as T4aN2bM0 TDs (+) and T4bN2M0 TDs (+) have a similar prognosis as those with stage IV, and hence these patients should be classified as stage IV.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12957-022-02501-9.

Tumor Deposits and Perineural Invasion had Comparable Impacts on the Survival of Patients With Non-metastatic Colorectal Adenocarcinoma: A Population-Based Propensity Score Matching and Competing Risk Analysis

BACKGROUND

Both tumor deposits (TD) and perineural invasion (PNI) have been identified as risk factors for poor survival in patients with non-metastatic colorectal adenocarcinoma (CRC). However, the adverse impacts of TD and PNI on the survival of patients with non-metastatic CRC have not been compared.

METHOD

Patients with non-metastatic CRC with known TD and PNI status were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. First, bivariate logistic regression analysis was utilized to identify the factors associated with TD and PNI status. Then, patients were divided into four groups, according to TD and PNI status. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to balance the baseline covariates. The impact of TD and PNI on survival was assessed by analyzing overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific mortality (CSM) rates. OS was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method with log-rank analysis. CSM was estimated by competing risk analysis using the Fine and Gray model.

RESULTS

A total of 70 689 patients with CRC met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The positive rates of TD and PNI were 9.37% and 9.91%, respectively. For TD, the most important risk factor was N stage. With respect to PNI, the most significant factor was T stage. Tumor location, tumor size, differentiation grade, and serum CEA level were also correlated with TD and PNI status. After PSM, 1849 pairs were selected. Patients with TD⁺PNI⁺ status had the worst 5 year CSM and 5 year OS. In addition, the long-term survival outcomes of patients with TD⁺PNI^- and TD^-PNI⁺ status were comparable.

CONCLUSION

The adverse impacts of TD and PNI on the survival of patients with non-metastatic CRC were comparable. CRC patients with both TD and PNI positive had the worst survival outcome.

Prognostic and staging value of tumor deposits in patients with rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

Background

The presence of tumor deposits (TDs) is only considered in the absence of lymph node metastases (LNMs) in the current TNM staging system. However, the prognostic value of TDs when concomitant with LNM for rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of TDs and when concomitant with LNMs in rectal cancer after NCRT.

Methods

Patients with rectal cancer who had received NCRT between 2010 and 2016 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) 18 (year range, 1975–2016) database. Data were extracted on the following: age, sex, race, TNM stage, total LNs harvested, positive LNs, histologic type, perineural invasion, grade, carcinoma embryonic antigen status, TD number, and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates. The primary objective was to determine the prognostic impact of TDs on CSS. The effect of the addition of TD to the LNM count for a novel N stage was also evaluated. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox models.

Results

Of 9,620 patients, 865 (9.0%) had TDs. TD-positive patients showed a worse prognosis than TD-negative patients (HR =2.39, 95% CI: 2.04–2.80, P<0.001), and multivariate analysis showed that the presence of TDs was an independent poor prognostic factor (HR =1.41, 95% CI: 1.19–1.67, P<0.001). Regarding the LN status, TDs were associated with a higher risk of cancer-specific death in the LNM- group (HR =2.43, 95% CI: 1.86–3.18, P<0.001), M1 group (HR =1.51, 95% CI: 1.08–2.10, P<0.001), and ypN1 group (HR =2.08, 95% CI: 1.61–2.70, P<0.001), but not in the ypN2 group (HR =0.97, 95% CI: 0.69–1.36, P=0.84). Patients with concomitant TDs and LNM showed significantly worse survival than those with TDs or LNM alone (5-year CSS: 48.2%, 72.2%, and 67.8%, respectively). The 5-year CSS rates were 86.2%, 77.4%, 65.1%, 53.8%, and 46.5% for the novel N0, N1a, N1b, N2a, and N2b groups, respectively (P<0.05 across all groups). Time dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and decision curve analysis showed that the novel N stage was superior to the current ypN stage.

Conclusions

The presence of TDs is an independent poor prognostic factor for LARC patients after NCRT. The concomitant presence of TDs and LNM indicates a significantly worse survival, and the addition of TD to LNM may help to better prompt appropriate risk stratification.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for colorectal cancer after surgery

BACKGROUND

A nomogram is a diagram that aggregates various predictive factors through multivariate regression analysis, which can be used to predict patient outcomes intuitively. Lymph node (LN) metastasis and tumor deposit (TD) conditions are two critical factors that affect the prognosis of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) after surgery. At present, few effective tools have been established to predict the overall survival (OS) of CRC patients after surgery.

AIM

To screen out suitable risk factors and to develop a nomogram that predicts the postoperative OS of CRC patients.

METHODS

Data from a total of 3139 patients diagnosed with CRC who underwent surgical removal of tumors and LN resection from 2010 to 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. The data were divided into a training set (n = 2092) and a validation set (n = 1047) at random. The Harrell concordance index (C-index), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and area under the curve (AUC) were used to assess the predictive performance of the N stage from the American Joint Committee Cancer tumor-node-metastasis classification, LN ratio (LNR), and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS). Univariate and multivariate analyses were utilized to screen out the risk factors significantly correlating with OS. The construction of the nomogram was based on Cox regression analysis. The C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve were employed to evaluate the discrimination and prediction abilities of the model. The likelihood ratio test was used to compare the sensitivity and specificity of the final model to the model with the N stage alone to evaluate LN metastasis.

RESULTS

The predictive efficacy of the LODDS was better than that of the LNR based on the C-index, AIC values, and AUC values of the ROC curve. Seven independent predictive factors, namely, race, age at diagnosis, T stage, M stage, LODDS, TD condition, and serum carcinoembryonic antigen level, were included in the nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram for OS prediction was 0.8002 (95%CI: 0.7839-0.8165) in the training set and 0.7864 (95%CI: 0.7604-0.8124) in the validation set. The AUC values of the ROC curve predicting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 0.846, 0.841, and 0.825, respectively, in the training set and 0.823, 0.817, and 0.835, respectively, in the validation test. Great consistency between the predicted and actual observed OS for the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS in the training set and validation set was shown in the calibration curves. The final nomogram showed a better sensitivity and specificity than the nomogram with N stage alone for evaluating LN metastasis in both the training set (-4668.0 vs -4688.3, P < 0.001) and the validation set (-1919.5 vs -1919.8, P < 0.001) through the likelihood ratio test.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram incorporating LODDS, TD, and other risk factors showed great predictive accuracy and better sensitivity and specificity and represents a potential tool for therapeutic decision-making.

Development and validation of a novel prognostic nomogram including tumor deposits could better predict survival for colorectal cancer: a population-based study

Background

The number of tumor deposits (TDs) in colorectal cancer (CRC) prognosis remains debated. We evaluated whether the number of TDs affects prognosis in stage III CRC patients.

Methods

Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed with Cox proportional hazards models. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival curves. The best cutoff was determined using X-Tile. Patients were 1:1 randomly divided into the training set or the testing set. Prognostic nomogram was established for stage III CRC patients. Concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot were used to assess Nomogram models.

Results

In total, 18,043 (84.69%) CRC patients without TDs and 3,263 (15.31%) patients with TDs were analyzed. Patients with TDs had significantly worse cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates (P<0.001). The number of TDs is an independent factor for the CSS of stage III CRC patients. CSS nomogram of stage III CRC patients was constructed based on race, age at diagnosis, tumor location, histological grade, pathological type, T, N, TDs, chemotherapy. In training set, C-index for CSS nomogram 0.762 (95% CI: 0.752–0.772). In testing set, the C-index for CSS nomogram 0.759 (95% CI: 0.749–0.768). The quality of calibration plots of nomogram models was high.

Conclusions

The presence of TDs is an independent risk prognostic factor for stage III CRC. The number of TDs had a high proportion of prognostic impact.

Prognostic value of tumor deposits in locally advanced rectal cancer: a retrospective study with propensity score matching

BACKGROUND

The actual risks posed by tumor deposits (TDs) in colorectal cancer are still incompletely assessed. We explored the prognostic value of TDs in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients using propensity score matching (PSM) method.

METHODS

Consecutive LARC patients in Peking University First Hospital between 2011 and 2015 were retrospectively analyzed. Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis were conducted to explore prognostic values of TDs. PSM method was conducted to minimize selection bias. The correlation between TDs number and prognosis was explored.

RESULTS

Four hundred and fifty-one LARC patients were recruited, and 78 (17.3%) patients were with TDs. Multivariate Cox analysis identified that the presence of TDs was an independent prognostic risk factor for overall survival (OS) (P = 0.044). PSM identified 76 matched pairs of LARC patients, and Kaplan-Meier curves revealed that patients with TDs experienced worse  OS (log-rank P = 0.0220) and relapse-free survival (RFS) (log-rank P = 0.0117). Subgroup analysis of 50 pairs extracted by PSM from 246 LARC patients with lymph node metastasis (LNM) further proved that TDs were significantly associated with worse OS (log-rank P = 0.0415), and the association was barely significant for RFS (log-rank P = 0.0527). There were non-significant tendencies towards higher mortality in TDs ≥ 2 than TD = 1 group (log-rank P = 0.348 for OS, log-rank P = 0.087 for RFS).

CONCLUSION

Our study manifested that the presence of TDs was an independent risk factor for LARC patients. The prognostic value of TDs for LARC patients with LNM should not be ignored.

Construction of a clinical survival prognostic model for middle-aged and elderly patients with stage III rectal adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Nomograms for prognosis prediction in colorectal cancer patients are few, and prognostic indicators differ with age.

AIM

To construct a new nomogram survival prediction tool for middle-aged and elderly patients with stage III rectal adenocarcinoma.

METHODS

A total of 2773 eligible patients were divided into the training cohort (70%) and the validation cohort (30%). Optimal cutoff values were calculated using the X-tile software for continuous variables. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to determine overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS)-related prognostic factors. Two nomograms were successfully constructed. The discriminant and predictive ability and clinical usefulness of the model were also assessed by multiple methods of analysis.

RESULTS

The 95%CI in the training group was 0.719 (0.690-0.749) and 0.733 (0.702-0.74), while that in the validation group was 0.739 (0.696-0.782) and 0.750 (0.701-0.800) for the OS and CSS nomogram prediction models, respectively. In the validation group, the AUC of the three-year survival rate was 0.762 and 0.770, while the AUC of the five-year survival rate was 0.722 and 0.744 for the OS and CSS nomograms, respectively. The nomogram distinguishes all-cause mortality from cancer-specific mortality in patients with different risk grades. The time-dependent AUC and decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram had good clinical predictive ability and decision efficacy and was significantly better than the tumor-node-metastases staging system.

CONCLUSION

The survival prediction model constructed in this study is helpful in evaluating the prognosis of patients and can aid physicians in clinical diagnosis and treatment.

A Modified Pathological N Stage Including Status of Tumor Deposits in Colorectal Cancer With Nodal Metastasis

Background

The American Joint Committee on Cancer 8th classification states that colorectal cancer (CRC) is classified as N1c stage when regional lymph nodes (LNs) are negative and tumor deposits (TDs) are positive. However, how to classify TDs when regional LNs are positive remains unclear. The current study aimed to investigate the possibility of combining positive LNs and positive TDs to develop a modified pathological N (mpN) stage for CRC.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed 9,198 patients with stage III CRC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program who underwent surgery (6,440 in the training cohort and 2,758 the validation cohort). The combination of positive LNs and TD status was defined as mpN stage. Overall survival (OS) according to mpN and pathological N (pN) stages was analyzed by the Kaplan–Meier method. The area under the curves (AUCs) and Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) were applied to assess the predictive discrimination abilities and goodness-of-fit of the model. The clinical benefits were measured using decision curve analyses. The validation cohort was used to validate the results.

Results

AUC analysis showed that the prognostic discrimination of mpN stage (AUC = 0.628, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.616–0.640) was better than that of pN stage (AUC = 0.618, 95% CI, 0.606–0.630, p = 0.006) for OS. The AIC demonstrated that mpN stage (AIC = 30,217) also showed superior model-fitting compared with pN stage (AIC = 30,257) and decision curve analyses revealed that mpN stage had better clinical benefits than pN stage. Similar results were found in the validation cohort.

Conclusions

Among patients with CRC and LN metastasis, mpN stage might be superior to pN stage for assessing prognosis and survival, suggesting that TD status should be included in the pN stage.

Prediction of cancer-specific survival and overall survival in middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma using a nomogram model

•

Summarise the established knowledge on this subject.1

Middle-aged and older patients are at high risk of rectal adenocarcinoma; however, studies comprehensively analysing its predictors and the construction of visual nomogram models are limited.

2

Most studies that reported on the prediction of colorectal cancer-related survival models had limited samples and included data from a single centre. The included predictors were limited, or the evaluation indicators were not easy to obtain, greatly limiting clinical application.

3

With the advancement of medical care, the clinical outcomes of patients with rectal adenocarcinoma have changed. Therefore, new, more comprehensive, and practical indicators are required for constructing clinical prediction models to effectively determine the prognosis of patients.

•

What are the significant and/or new findings of this study?1

We included demographic and clinicopathological data from thousands of middle-aged and elderly patients with rectal adenocarcinoma to find relevant prognostic factors. New cut-offs were developed and used for the construction of nomograms.

2

The nomogram constructed this time has excellent predictive ability and clinical decision-making ability, and has good clinical practicability.

3

The nomogram survival prediction model constructed this time can effectively help evaluate the prognosis of middle-aged and elderly patients with rectal adenocarcinoma and guide the selection of clinical treatment measures.

Objective

To develop a new nomogram tool for predicting survival in middle-aged and elderly patients with rectal adenocarcinoma.

Methods

A total of 6,116 patients were randomly assigned in a 7:3 ratio to training and validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors associated with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in the training set, and two nomogram prognostic models were constructed. The validity, accuracy, discrimination, predictive ability, and clinical utility of the models were assessed based on the concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC), Kaplan-Meier survival curve, and decision curve analyses.

Results

Predictors of OS and CSS were identified, and nomograms were successfully constructed. The calibration discrimination for both the OS and CSS nomogram prediction models was good (C-index: 0.763 and 0.787, respectively). The AUC showed excellent predictive performance, and the calibration curve exhibited significant predictive power for both nomograms. The time-dependent AUC showed that the predictive ability of the predictor-based nomogram was better than that of the TNM stage. The nomograms successfully discriminated high-, medium-, and low-risk patients for all-cause and cancer-specific mortality. The decision curve demonstrated that the nomograms are useful with respect to good decision power.

Conclusion

Our nomogram survival prediction models may aid in evaluating the prognosis of middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma and guiding the selection of the clinical treatment measures.

A Modified Tumor-Node-Metastasis Classification for Stage III Colorectal Cancers Based on Treating Tumor Deposits as Positive Lymph Nodes

Background: The tumor-node-metastasis classification of the American Joint Committee on Cancer classified tumor deposits (TDs) in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) without lymph node (LN) metastasis as N1c, but the classification of TDs in patients with LN metastases remains controversial. This study investigated the probability of regarding TDs as positive LNs (pLNs) in pN stage and estimated its prognostic ability in CRC. Methods: We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to analyze CRC patients who underwent surgical therapy (14,906 training cohort, 6,384 validation cohort). A modified pN stage (mpN) was identified using the number of pLNs plus TDs. Overall survival (OS) was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and significant prognostic factors were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. Prognostic ability was estimated using the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and the Akaike's information criterion (AIC). Clinical benefit was measured by the decision curve analyses (DCA). The results were validated using the validation cohort. Results: Both the pN and mpN stages were independent prognostic factors in CRC according to univariate and multivariate analyses. The AUC analysis showed that the mpN stage had better prognostic discrimination for OS than the pN stage (0.612 vs. 0.605, P < 0.001). The AIC demonstrated that the mpN stage also showed superior model-fitting compared with the pN stage (49,756 vs. 49,841). The DCA further revealed that the mpN stage had better clinical benefits than the pN stage. The validation cohort showed similar findings. Conclusions: We concluded that counting TDs as pLNs may be superior to the pN stage when assessing the prognosis of CRC patients.

Expression of biogenesis of ribosomes BRX1 is associated with malignant progression and prognosis in colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Upregulated ribosome synthesis is associated with an increased risk of cancer onset. However, the role of biogenesis of ribosomes BRX1 (BRIX1), which is involved in the synthesis of ribosomal 60S subunits, in the progression and prognosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) is not clear.

METHODS

Sixty CRC patients requiring surgical treatment were enrolled in the present prospective study. Patient characteristics were collected at admission. The CRC tissue samples and adjacent normal tissue samples from patients were collected for further quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and Western blot. All enrolled patients were followed up for 12 months, and overall patient survival during follow-up was recorded.

RESULTS

The level of BRIX1 mRNA in CRC tissues was higher compared with that in adjacent normal tissues (1.0±0.5 vs. 5.5±1.7, P<0.01). Similarly, the level of the BRIX1 protein in CRC tissues was significantly higher than that in adjacent normal tissues (1.0±0.6 vs. 6.4±2.1, P<0.01). On further analysis, we found that the levels of BRIX1 mRNA and protein were positively correlated with tumor stage. Patients at stages III-IV had a higher expression of BRIX1 mRNA and protein than at stages I-II. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve indicated that patients with higher level of the BRIX1 protein had a lower overall survival rate. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify tumor stage III or IV, poor differentiation, and elevated expression of the BRIX1 protein as risk factors for the overall survival of CRC patients.

CONCLUSIONS

BRIX1 expression is positively correlated with CRC tumor stage; it also acts as a risk factor for the overall survival of CRC patients.