Research on the Effects of Legal Health Interventions to Prevent Overdose: Too Often Too Little and Too Late

COVID-19 and the Drug Overdose Crisis: Uncovering the Deadliest Months in the United States, January‒July 2020

Objectives. To determine the magnitude of increases in monthly drug-related overdose mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Methods. We leveraged provisional records from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provided as rolling 12-month sums, which are helpful for smoothing, yet may mask pandemic-related spikes in overdose mortality. We cross-referenced these rolling aggregates with previous monthly data to estimate monthly drug-related overdose mortality for January through July 2020. We quantified historical errors stemming from reporting delays and estimated empirically derived 95% prediction intervals (PIs). Results. We found that 9192 (95% PI = 8988, 9397) people died from drug overdose in May 2020-making it the deadliest month on record-representing a 57.7% (95% PI = 54.2%, 61.2%) increase over May 2019. Most states saw large-magnitude increases, with the highest in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee. We observed low concordance between rolling 12-month aggregates and monthly pandemic-related shocks. Conclusions. Unprecedented increases in overdose mortality occurred during the pandemic, highlighting the value of presenting monthly values alongside smoothed aggregates for detecting shocks. Public Health Implications. Drastic exacerbations of the US overdose crisis warrant renewed investments in overdose surveillance and prevention during the pandemic response and postpandemic recovery efforts.

COVID-19 as a Frying Pan: The Promise and Perils of Pandemic-driven Reform

: The imposition of new regulations can send industries scrambling to comply, fostering innovation in doing so. How we police and treat people with opioid use disorder (OUD), with recent widespread social unrest in reaction to police violence and systemic racism bringing the need for lasting structural changes to our justice system and social services into especially acute relief. Arbitrary laws and counterproductive policies previously subject to only incremental reform have given way to sweeping changes: people convicted of nonviolent drug crimes have been released from jails and prisons, the enforcement of drug laws has been cast aside as a priority, and the regulations surrounding addiction treatment medications and treating patients with OUD have been greatly loosened. These are changes many practitioners and advocates have sought for years if not decades, but they come with the reality that the old systems are culturally entrenched and likely to be resilient. It is critical that researchers evaluate these changes and synthesize the results with existing evidence in ways that empower efforts to make the most effective responses permanent. The COVID-19 pandemic makes for a challenging research environment, but its OUD-related interventions have created new regulatory systems that lend themselves to valuable opportunities for evaluation as natural experiments by the burgeoning field of legal epidemiology.