Influenza in California during 1947 and 1948

Localization, epidemic transitions, and unpredictability of multistrain epidemics with an underlying genotype network

Mathematical disease modelling has long operated under the assumption that any one infectious disease is caused by one transmissible pathogen spreading among a population. This paradigm has been useful in simplifying the biological reality of epidemics and has allowed the modelling community to focus on the complexity of other factors such as population structure and interventions. However, there is an increasing amount of evidence that the strain diversity of pathogens, and their interplay with the host immune system, can play a large role in shaping the dynamics of epidemics. Here, we introduce a disease model with an underlying genotype network to account for two important mechanisms. One, the disease can mutate along network pathways as it spreads in a host population. Two, the genotype network allows us to define a genetic distance between strains and therefore to model the transcendence of immunity often observed in real world pathogens. We study the emergence of epidemics in this model, through its epidemic phase transitions, and highlight the role of the genotype network in driving cyclicity of diseases, large scale fluctuations, sequential epidemic transitions, as well as localization around specific strains of the associated pathogen. More generally, our model illustrates the richness of behaviours that are possible even in well-mixed host populations once we consider strain diversity and go beyond the “one disease equals one pathogen” paradigm.

Epidemics rarely involve a single unique pathogen but are often modelled as such. Rather, most pathogens circulate under a family of strains which can interact differently with the host immune system and undergo further mutations. Here we extend a classic epidemiological model to consider the genetic structure connecting these strains—i.e., the genotype network mapping possible mutation pathways—and investigate the dynamics and emergence of epidemics beyond the “one disease equals one pathogen” paradigm. This simple model allows us to consider the impacts of (i) mutation, (ii) cross-immunity between strains, (iii) competition between strains, and (iv) the structure of the genotype network. We find that, altogether, these features do not affect the classic epidemic threshold but localize outbreaks around key strains and yield a second immune invasion threshold below which the epidemics follow almost cyclical and chaos-like dynamics. Our results illustrate how little biological realism is needed to introduce key features of real epidemics in even the simplest disease models: epidemic cycles, unpredictability, and heterogeneous strain prevalence.

The effects of the Xijiao Dihuang decoction combined with Yinqiao powder on miRNA-mRNA profiles in mice infected with influenza a virus

Background

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) play vital roles in acute inflammatory and antiviral responses during influenza A virus (IAV) infection. The Xijiao Dihuang decoction combined with Yinqiao powder (XDY) is applied to remedy viral pneumonia in China and its therapeutic efficacy in pneumonic mice challenged with IAV was demonstrated; however, the underlying mechanisms remain elusive. Thus, this study aimed to explore the miRNA-mRNA profiles in the lungs of IAV-infected mice and investigate the therapeutic mechanisms of XDY involving miRNAs and associated pathways.

Methods

We detected the cellular miRNA contents in the lungs of mice treated with XDY (23 g/kg/d) for A/FM/1/47 (H1N1) (FM1) infection at 4 days postinoculation (dpi) and 7 dpi. MiRNA and mRNA high-throughput sequencing analyses, and miRNA and mRNA qRT-PCR analyses were used to detect and verify the relevant miRNAs and mRNAs. Conjoint analysis, GO enrichment analysis, and KEGG database analysis were applied to identify the miRNA-mRNA regulatory relationships.

Results

The quantities of differentially expressed miRNAs and mRNAs were upregulated over time. The data showed that 104 miRNAs and 3485 mRNAs were differentially expressed after challenge with FM1 on day 4, while 191 miRNAs and 6126 mRNAs were differentially expressed on day 7. The GO enrichment analysis and KEGG database data showed that the differentially expressed miRNAs and mRNAs were mainly enriched in JNK activity, MAPK phosphatase activity, and the TLR, Jak-STAT and TNF signalling pathways after treatment of FM1 infection with XDY. Generally, the expression trends of differentially expressed miRNAs and mRNAs based on the qRT-PCR results exhibited good consistency with the results of the high-throughput sequencing analysis.

Conclusions

MiRNAs and mRNAs were differentially expressed during FM1 infection. The therapeutic mechanisms of XDY in FM1-infected mice, might be related to regulating antiviral immunity and ameliorating excessive inflammatory responses by modulating the expression of dysregulated miRNAs and mRNAs involved in the ERK/JNK-AP-1, and IFN-β/STAT signalling pathways.

An assessment of oil adjuvant and aqueous influenza vaccines. II. Antibody responses to the vaccines

In trials with polyvalent commercial influenza vaccines the antibody responses to oil-adjuvant vaccine persisted longer and were often higher. Antibody conversion was poor after all vaccines and delayed after adjuvant.