A Global Perspective on Phosphorus Management Decision Support in Agriculture: Lessons Learned and Future Directions

Transferability of a Bayesian Belief Network across diverse agricultural catchments using high-frequency hydrochemistry and land management data

Biogeochemical catchment models are often developed for a single catchment and, as a result, often generalize poorly beyond this. Evaluating their transferability is an important step in improving their predictive power and application range. We assess the transferability of a recently developed Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) that simulated monthly stream phosphorus (P) concentrations in a poorly-drained grassland catchment through application to three further catchments with different hydrological regimes and agricultural land uses. In all catchments, flow and turbidity were measured sub-hourly from 2009 to 2016 and supplemented with 400-500 soil P test measurements. In addition to a previously parameterized BBN, five further model structures were implemented to incorporate in a stepwise way: in-stream P removal using expert elicitation, additional groundwater P stores and delivery, and the presence or absence of septic tank treatment, and, in one case, Sewage Treatment Works. Model performance was tested through comparison of predicted and observed total reactive P (TRP) concentrations and percentage bias (PBIAS). The original BBN accurately simulated the absolute values of observed flow and TRP concentrations in the poorly and moderately drained catchments (albeit with poor apparent percentage bias scores; 76 % ≤ PBIAS≤94 %) irrespective of the dominant land use, but performed less well in the groundwater-dominated catchments. However, including groundwater total dissolved P (TDP) and Sewage Treatment Works (STWs) inputs, and in-stream P uptake improved model performance (-5 % ≤ PBIAS≤18 %). A sensitivity analysis identified redundant variables further helping to streamline the model applications. An enhanced BBN model capable for wider application and generalisation resulted.

Reducing phosphorus losses from agricultural land to surface water

Phosphorus (P) enrichment of water impairs its quality by stimulating algal growth and eutrophication, affecting an estimated 1.7 billion people. Remediation costs are substantial, estimated at $1 billion annually in Europe and $2.4 billion in the USA. Agricultural intensification over the past 50 years has increased P use brought into the system from mined fertiliser sources. This has enriched soil P concentrations and loss to surface waters via pathways such as surface runoff and subsurface flow, which are influenced by precipitation, slope, and farming practices. Effective mitigation of losses involves managing P sources, mobilisation, and transport/delivery mechanisms. The cost-effectiveness of mitigation actions can be improved if they are targeted to critical source areas (CSAs), which are small zones that disproportionately contribute to P loss. While targeting CSAs works well in areas with variable topography, flatter landscapes require managing legacy sources, such as enriched soil P to prevent P losses.

Towards implementing precision conservation practices in agricultural watersheds: A review of the use and prospects of spatial decision support systems and tools

Agricultural nonpoint source (NPS) pollution leads to water quality degradation. While agriculture is faced with the challenge of feeding a growing population in a changing climate, farmers must also strive to minimize adverse impacts of agriculture on the environment. As a result, policies, and agri-environmental programs to promote agricultural conservation practices for controlling NPS pollution have been emerging. Despite progress, reducing NPS is a complex challenge that requires ongoing innovation and investment. A major challenge is to achieve an optimal spatial trade-off between the economic costs and positive environmental outcomes of conservation practices on complex agricultural landscapes. Geospatial systems and tools can help to address this challenge and enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of conservation efforts. However, using these tools for precision conservation is underexamined. This review paper aims to address this gap through a critical exploration of spatial decision support systems and tools to provide synthesized knowledge for implementing precision conservation practices. This paper proposes a conceptual framework to guide the implementation of precision conservation and identifies areas for further development of geospatial systems and tools on planning and assessment of precision conservation efforts. All of which will be helpful for decision-makers and watershed managers in determining the most effective approaches for precision conservation. Furthermore, this review highlights the need for further research and development towards establishing an integrated spatial decision support system framework, which can improve socio-economic, environmental, and ecological outcomes.

Efficient protection of the Baltic Sea needs a revision of phosphorus metric

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is driven by phosphorus and nitrogen. While the anthropogenic point source loads of both nutrients have decreased markedly, further reductions are needed. This is true particularly for phosphorus, as highlighted by its stringent abatement targets in HELCOM's Baltic Sea Action Plan. To meet the targets, more results need to be achieved in non-point source abatement, specifically from agricultural sources. The growing pressure for phosphorus abatement from agriculture may lead to environmentally and economically inefficient outcomes unless we account for the variability in how different forms of phosphorus respond to abatement measures, and how these forms contribute to eutrophication. The precautionary and efficiency improving way to advance policies is to either replace or supplement the Total Phosphorus metric with a metric more accurate in reflecting the biologically available phosphorus. This policy fix becomes more important as the relative share of agricultural emissions of total pollution increases.

Getting ahead of the pandemic curve: A systematic review of critical determining factors for innovation adoption in ensuring food security

The imminent threat to food security requires immediate intervention toward ensuring societal sustainability especially in combating the pandemic. The rapid spread of COVID-19 cases has caused concern for food security. A recent outlook report produced by Food Agricultural Organization and World Food Programme (FAO-WTP) highlights that there are at least 20 countries that are faced with a looming threat of food availability between the period of March-July 2021. Other factors that pose a significant threat to food security include climate change and natural disasters which could significantly reduce the yield. It is hence imperative to gain an in-depth understanding of factors that influence farmers' choices in innovation adoption for increased yield. A line of research has been conducted across the globe on new technology adoption and effect of innovation that aims to increase productivity and yield. This study examined the key factors, that lead farmers to the adoption of new technology and innovation, reported in studies over the past 15 years. PRISMA-P (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols) was employed based on the SCOPUS and Web of Science database. In creating the main dataset, a protocol was developed in advance to document the analysis method. Several inclusion (eligibility) and exclusion criteria were set to select related articles from a total of 2,136 papers. The thematic and content analyses were subsequently performed on 392 research articles. The findings indicate 4 over-arching segments, and 12 major determinants, that comprise 62 associate determinants. The paper concludes with the identification of critical factors for innovation adoption amongst farmers.

Tackling unintended consequences of grazing livestock farming: Multi-scale assessment of co-benefits and trade-offs for water pollution mitigation scenarios

A farm-to-landscape scale modelling framework combining regulating services and life cycle assessment mid-point impacts for air and water was used to explore the co-benefits and trade-offs of alternative management futures for grazing livestock farms. Two intervention scenarios were compared: one using on-farm interventions typically recommended following visual farm audits (visually-based) and the other using mechanistical understanding of nutrient and sediment losses to water (mechanistically-based). At farm scale, reductions in business-as-usual emissions to water of total phosphorus (TP) and sediment, using both the visually-based and mechanistically-based scenarios, were <5%. These limited impacts highlighted the important role of land drains and the lack of relevant on-farm measures in current recommended advisory lists for the soil types in question. The predicted impacts of both scenarios on free draining soils were significantly higher; TP reductions of ∼9% (visually-based) and ∼20% (mechanistically-based) compared with corresponding respective estimates of >20% and >35% for sediment. Key co-benefits at farm scale included reductions in nitrous oxide emissions and improvements in physical soil quality, whereas an increase in ammonia emissions was the principal trade-off. At landscape scale, simulated reductions in business-as-usual losses were <3% for both pollutants for both scenarios. The visually-based and mechanistically-based scenarios narrowed the gaps between current and modern background sediment loads by 6% and 11%, respectively. The latter scenario also improved the reduction of GWP100 relative to business-as-usual by 4%, in comparison to 1% for the former. However, with the predicted increase of ammonia emissions, both eutrophication potential and acidification potential increased (e.g., by 7% and 14% for the mechanistically-based scenario). The discrepancy of on-farm intervention efficacy across spatial scales generated by non-agricultural water pollutant sources is a key challenge for addressing water quality problems at landscape scale.

Evaluating the impact of interbasin water transfer on water quality in the recipient river basin with SWAT

During the second half of the 20th century in South Korea, interbasin water transfers (IBWTs) have been used to supply the water demands of basins with insufficient water using water from reservoirs in neighboring basins with ample water. However, since 2000, frequent droughts have resulted in water resource imbalances in donor basins, and basin residents have begun to claim their water rights. Recipient basins have also experienced water shortages and water quality deterioration due to gradual urban growth, agricultural activities, and climate change impacts. In this study, the Mangyeong River basin (1602 km²) was investigated. This basin has received 380 million m³/year of water since 2002 from the Yongdam multipurpose dam (YDD), which is located in another basin. For IBWT modeling, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and an inlet function were applied to model the recipient and donor water quality. Eight scenarios related to water transfer quantity and quality were applied with SWAT to analyze the effects of IBWT on the water quality in the recipient basin. The results showed that an increase in the IBWT amount helped to reduce the nutrient and suspended solids concentrations in the recipient basin when the donor's nutrient and suspended solids concentrations were lower than those in the recipient basin. The IBWT quantity scenarios had a greater impact on the water quality of the recipient basin than the IBWT quality scenarios. These results could provide basic information for use in deciding on the quantity and quality of IBWT between basins that are in conflict.

Potential impacts of a future Nordic bioeconomy on surface water quality

Nordic water bodies face multiple stressors due to human activities, generating diffuse loading and climate change. The 'green shift' towards a bio-based economy poses new demands and increased pressure on the environment. Bioeconomy-related pressures consist primarily of more intensive land management to maximise production of biomass. These activities can add considerable nutrient and sediment loads to receiving waters, posing a threat to ecosystem services and good ecological status of surface waters. The potential threats of climate change and the 'green shift' highlight the need for improved understanding of catchment-scale water and element fluxes. Here, we assess possible bioeconomy-induced pressures on Nordic catchments and associated impacts on water quality. We suggest measures to protect water quality under the 'green shift' and propose 'road maps' towards sustainable catchment management. We also identify knowledge gaps and highlight the importance of long-term monitoring data and good models to evaluate changes in water quality, improve understanding of bioeconomy-related impacts, support mitigation measures and maintain ecosystem services.

Phosphorus mirabilis: Illuminating the Past and Future of Phosphorus Stewardship

After its discovery in 1669, phosphorus (P) was named ("the miraculous bearer of light"), arising from the chemoluminescence when white P is exposed to the atmosphere. The metaphoric association between P and light resonates through history: from the discovery of P at the start of the Enlightenment period to the vital role of P in photosynthetic capture of light in crop and food production through to new technologies, which seek to capitalize on the interactions between novel ultrathin P allotropes and light, including photocatalysis, solar energy production, and storage. In this introduction to the special section "Celebrating the 350th Anniversary of Discovering Phosphorus-For Better or Worse," which brings together 22 paper contributions, we shine a spotlight on the historical and emerging challenges and opportunities in research and understanding of the agricultural, environmental, and societal significance of this vital element. We highlight the role of P in water quality impairment and the variable successes of P mitigation measures. We reflect on the need to improve P use efficiency and on the kaleidoscope of challenges facing efficient use of P. We discuss the requirement to focus on place-based solutions for developing effective and lasting P management. Finally, we consider how cross-disciplinary collaborations in P stewardship offer a guiding light for the future, and we explore the glimmers of hope for reconnecting our broken P cycle and the bright new horizons needed to ensure future food, water, and bioresource security for growing global populations.