Systemic inflammatory response syndrome and model for end-stage liver disease score accurately predict the in-hospital mortality of black African patients with decompensated cirrhosis at initial hospitalization: a retrospective cohort study

Prognostic value of neutrophil count to albumin ratio in patients with decompensated cirrhosis

Our study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of neutrophil count to albumin ratio (NAR) in predicting short-term mortality of patients with decompensated cirrhosis (DC). A total of 623 DC patients were recruited from a retrospective observational cohort study. They were admitted to our hospital from January 2014 to December 2015. NAR of each patient was calculated and analyzed for the association with 90-day liver transplantation-free (LT-free) outcome. The performance of NAR and the integrated model were tested by a receiver-operator curve (ROC) and C-index. The 90-day LT-free mortality of patients with DC was 10.6%. NAR was significantly higher in 90-day non-survivors than in survivors (The median: 1.73 vs 0.76, P < 0.001). A threshold of 1.40 of NAR differentiated patients with a high risk of death (27.45%) from those with a low risk (5.11%). By multivariate analysis, high NAR was independently associated with poor short-term prognosis (high group: 5.07 (2.78, 9.22)). NAR alone had an area under the ROC curve of 0.794 and C-index of 0.7789 (0.7287, 0.8291) in predicting 90-day mortality. The integrated MELD-NAR (iMELD) model had a higher area under the ROC (0.872) and C-index (0.8558 (0.8122, 0.8994)) than the original MELD in predicting 90-day mortality. NAR can be used as an independent predictor of poor outcomes for patients with DC during short-term follow-up.

HDL-C levels added to the MELD score improves 30-day mortality prediction in Asian patients with cirrhosis

Objectives

Lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels have been observed in chronic liver disease patients. The aim of this study was to develop a model that incorporates HDL-C levels and the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score to predict 30-day mortality in Asian cirrhosis patients.

Methods

Cirrhosis patients were recruited from two hospitals in this retrospective observational study. Propensity score matching was used. The model’s performance was evaluated, including its ability to predict 30-day mortality, accuracy, and clinical utility. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were calculated.

Results

The HDL-C + MELD model showed good ability to predict 30-day mortality (area under the curve, 0.784; sensitivity, 0.797; specificity, 0.632), which was better than that of the MELD score alone. It also showed good calibration and a net benefit for all patients, which was better than that of the MELD score, except at the threshold probability. NRI and IDI results confirmed that adding HDL-C levels to the MELD score improved the model’s performance in predicting 30-day mortality.

Conclusion

We added HDL-C levels to the MELD score to predict 30-day mortality in Asian patients with cirrhosis. The HDLC + MELD model shows good ability to predict 30-day mortality and clinical utility.

Correlation between the Lymphocyte-To-Monocyte Ratio (LMR) and Child–Pugh and MELD/MELDNa Scores in Vietnamese Patients with Liver Cirrhosis

Objectives: This study aims to determine cirrhotic patients’ clinical and laboratory characteristics, thereby examining the correlation between lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio and Child–Pugh and MELD/MELDNa scores. Methods: A cross-sectional study with an analysis of 153 patients admitted to the Department of Gastroenterology–Clinical Hematology at Can Tho Central General Hospital. Data were collected via patient interviews and medical records. Results: The included patients were more likely to be male (66.7%) and were ≥60 years old (51.6%). Excessive alcohol consumption and hepatitis B were the dominant causes of cirrhosis (35.3% and 34.0%). The clinical and laboratory characteristics were similar to previous studies in cirrhotic patients. The mean Child score was 9.3 ± 2.1, including 9.8% of patients with Child A, 44.4% for Child B, and 45.8% for Child C. The mean MELD and MELDNa scores were 16.9 ± 7.1 and 19.4 ± 8.1, respectively. The mean lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) is 2.0 ± 2.2 (from 0.09 to 25.3), being negatively correlated with the other scores (Pearson correlation coefficients were −0.238; −0.211 and −0.245, respectively, all p-values < 0.01). Patients with LMR below 3.31 were more likely to be classified as Child–Pugh B and C. Conclusion: The correlation between LMR with Child–Pugh, MELD, and MELDNa scores was weak and negative.

Establishment of a Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome Model and Evaluation of the Efficacy of Umbilical Cord Mesenchymal Stem Cell Transplantation

Based on the characteristics of modern weapon injury, a repetitive model of traumatic systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and an evaluation system were established. The models were treated with GFP-labeled tree shrew umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cells (UCMSCs). Forty out of 50 tree shrews were used to make a unilateral femoral comminuted fracture. Lipopolysaccharide was injected intravenously to create a traumatic SIRS model. The other 10 shrews were used as normal controls. After the model was established for 10 days, 20 tree shrews were injected intravenously with GFP-labeled UCMSCs, and 18 tree shrews were not injected as the model control group. The distribution of GFP-labeled cells in vivo was measured at 2 and 10 days after injection. Twenty days after treatment, the model group, the normal control group, and the treatment group were taken to observe the pathological changes in each tissue, and blood samples were taken for the changes in liver, renal, and heart function. Distribution of GFP-positive cells was observed in all tissues at 2 and 10 days after injection. After treatment, the HE staining results of the treatment group were close to those of the normal group, and the model group had a certain degree of lesions. The results of liver, renal, and heart function tests in the treatment group were returned to normal, and the results in the model group were abnormally increased. UCMSCs have a certain effect on the treatment of traumatic SIRS and provide a new technical solution for modern weapon trauma treatment.

Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome in Patients Hospitalized for Acute Decompensation of Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Although recently challenged, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria are still commonly used in daily practice to define sepsis. However, several factors in liver cirrhosis may negatively impact its prognostic ability. Goals. To investigate the factors associated with the presence of SIRS, the characteristics of SIRS related to infection, and its prognostic value among patients hospitalized for acute decompensation of cirrhosis. Study. In this cohort study from two tertiary hospitals, 543 patients were followed up, up to 90 days. Data collection, including the prognostic models, was within 48 hours of admission.

RESULTS

SIRS was present in 42.7% of the sample and was independently associated with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGB), ACLF, infection, and negatively related to beta-blockers. SIRS was associated with mortality in univariate analysis, but not in multiple Cox regression analysis. The Kaplan-Meier survival probability of patients without SIRS was 73.0% and for those with SIRS was 64.7%. The presence of SIRS was not significantly associated with mortality when considering patients with or without infection, separately. Infection in SIRS patients was independently associated with Child-Pugh C and inversely related to UGB. Among subjects with SIRS, mortality was independently related to the presence of infection, ACLF, and Child-Pugh C.

CONCLUSIONS

SIRS was common in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and was of no prognostic value, even in the presence of infection.

Organ System Network Disruption Is Associated With Poor Prognosis in Patients With Chronic Liver Failure

BACKGROUND

A healthy individual has a high degree of functional connectivity between organ systems, which can be represented graphically in a network map. Disruption of this system connectivity is associated with mortality in life-threatening acute illnesses, demonstrated by a network approach. However, this approach has not been applied to chronic multisystem diseases and may be more reliable than conventional individual organ prognostic scoring methods. Cirrhosis is a chronic disease of the liver with multisystem involvement. Development of an efficient model for prediction of mortality in cirrhosis requires a profound understanding of the pathophysiologic processes that lead to poor prognosis. In the present study, we use a network approach to evaluate the differences in organ system connectivity between survivors and non-survivors in a group of well-characterized patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

201 patients with cirrhosis originally referred to the Clinic five at the University Hospital of Padova, with 13 clinical variables available representing hepatic, metabolic, haematopoietic, immune, neural and renal organ systems were retrospectively enrolled and followed up for 3, 6, and 12 months. Software was designed to compute the correlation network maps of organ system interaction in survivors and non-survivors using analysis indices: A. Bonferroni corrected Pearson's correlation coefficient and B. Mutual Information. Network structure was quantitatively evaluated using the measures of edges, average degree of connectivity and closeness, and qualitatively using clinical significance. Pair-matching was also implemented as a further step after initial general analysis to control for sample size and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD-Na) score between the groups.

RESULTS

There was a higher number of significant correlations in survivors, as indicated by both the analysis indices of Bonferroni corrected Pearson's correlation coefficient and the Mutual Information analysis. The number of edges, average degree of connectivity and closeness were significantly higher in survivors compared to non-survivors group. Pair-matching for MELD-Na was also associated with increased connectivity in survivors compared to non-survivors over 3 and 6 months follow up.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates the application of a network approach in evaluating functional connectivity of organ systems in liver cirrhosis, demonstrating a significant degree of network disruption in organ systems in non-survivors. Network analysis of organ systems may provide insight in developing novel prognostic models for organ allocation in patients with cirrhosis.