Risk Stratification in Patients with Ischemic Stroke and Residual Cardiovascular Risk with Current Secondary Prevention

Impact of the 2021 European Society for Cardiology prevention guideline's stepwise approach for cardiovascular risk factor treatment in patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

AIMS

This study aimed to evaluate the stepwise approach for cardiovascular (CV) risk factor treatment as outlined by the European Society for Cardiology 2021 guidelines on CV disease (CVD) prevention in patients with established atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

In patients with ASCVD, included in UCC-SMART (n = 8730) and European parts of the REACH registry (n = 18 364), the 10-year CV risk was estimated using SMART2. Treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses and trials. Step 1 recommendations were LDL cholesterol (LDLc) < 1.8 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 140 mmHg, using any antithrombotic medication, sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition, and smoking cessation. Step 2 recommendations were LDLc < 1.4 mmol/L, SBP < 130 mmHg, dual-pathway inhibition (DPI, aspirin plus low-dose rivaroxaban), colchicine, glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 receptor agonists, and eicosapentaenoic acid. Step 2 was modelled accounting for Step 1 non-attainment. With current treatment, residual CV risk was 22%, 32%, and 60% in the low, moderate, and pooled (very) high European risk regions, respectively. Step 2 could prevent up to 198, 223 and 245 events per 1000 patients treated, respectively. Intensified LDLc reduction, colchicine, and DPI could be applied to most patients, preventing up to 57, 74, and 59 events per 1000 patients treated, respectively. Following Step 2, the number of patients with a CV risk of <10% could increase from 20%, 6.4%, and 0.5%, following Step 1, to 63%, 48%, and 12%, in the respective risk regions.

CONCLUSION

With current treatment, residual CV risk in patients with ASCVD remains high across all European risk regions. The intensified Step 2 treatment options result in marked further reduction of residual CV risk in patients with established ASCVD.

KEY FINDINGS

Guideline-recommended intensive treatment of patients with cardiovascular disease could prevent additional 198-245 new cardiovascular events for every 1000 patients treated.

Intermediate and long-term residual cardiovascular risk in patients with established cardiovascular disease treated with statins

Introduction

Statins remain the first-line treatment for secondary prevention of cardiovascular (CV) events, with lowering of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) being their therapeutic target. Although LDL-C reduction significantly lowers CV risk, residual risk persists, even in patients with well-controlled LDL-C; thus, statin add-on agents that target pathways other than LDL-C, such as the omega-3 fatty acid eicosapentaenoic acid, may help to further reduce persistent CV risk in patients with established CV disease.

Methods

This narrative review examines the contemporary literature assessing intermediate- and long-term event rates in patients with established CV disease treated with statins.

Results

CV event rates among patients treated with statins who have established CV disease, including coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, or peripheral arterial disease, accumulate over time, with a cumulative incidence of CV events reaching up to approximately 40% over 10 years. Recurrent stroke occurs in up to 19% of patients seven years after a first cerebrovascular event. Repeat revascularization and CV-related death occurs in up to 38% and 33% of patients with peripheral artery disease after three years, respectively.

Discussion

Additional treatment strategies, such as eicosapentaenoic acid, are needed to reduce persistent CV risk in patients with established CV disease treated with statins.

Protocol of the Berlin Long-term Observation of Vascular Events (BeLOVE): a prospective cohort study with deep phenotyping and long-term follow up of cardiovascular high-risk patients

INTRODUCTION

The Berlin Long-term Observation of Vascular Events is a prospective cohort study that aims to improve prediction and disease-overarching mechanistic understanding of cardiovascular (CV) disease progression by comprehensively investigating a high-risk patient population with different organ manifestations.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A total of 8000 adult patients will be recruited who have either suffered an acute CV event (CVE) requiring hospitalisation or who have not experienced a recent acute CVE but are at high CV risk. An initial study examination is performed during the acute treatment phase of the index CVE or after inclusion into the chronic high risk arm. Deep phenotyping is then performed after ~90 days and includes assessments of the patient's medical history, health status and behaviour, cardiovascular, nutritional, metabolic, and anthropometric parameters, and patient-related outcome measures. Biospecimens are collected for analyses including 'OMICs' technologies (e.g., genomics, metabolomics, proteomics). Subcohorts undergo MRI of the brain, heart, lung and kidney, as well as more comprehensive metabolic, neurological and CV examinations. All participants are followed up for up to 10 years to assess clinical outcomes, primarily major adverse CVEs and patient-reported (value-based) outcomes. State-of-the-art clinical research methods, as well as emerging techniques from systems medicine and artificial intelligence, will be used to identify associations between patient characteristics, longitudinal changes and outcomes.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was approved by the Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin ethics committee (EA1/066/17). The results of the study will be disseminated through international peer-reviewed publications and congress presentations.

STUDY REGISTRATION

First study phase: Approved WHO primary register: German Clinical Trials Register: https://drks.de/search/de/trial/DRKS00016852; WHO International Clinical Registry Platform: http://apps.who.int/trialsearch/Trial2.aspx?TrialID=DRKS00016852. Recruitment started on July 18, 2017.Second study phase: Approved WHO primary register: German Clinical Trials Register DRKS00023323, date of registration: November 4, 2020, URL: http://www.drks.de/ DRKS00023323. Recruitment started on January 1, 2021.

High residual cardiovascular risk after lipid-lowering: prime time for Predictive, Preventive, Personalized, Participatory, and Psycho-cognitive medicine

As time has come to translate trial results into individualized medical diagnosis and therapy, we analyzed how to minimize residual risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) by reviewing papers on "residual cardiovascular disease risk". During this review process we found 989 papers that started off with residual CVD risk after initiating statin therapy, continued with papers on residual CVD risk after initiating therapy to increase high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), followed by papers on residual CVD risk after initiating therapy to decrease triglyceride (TG) levels. Later on, papers dealing with elevated levels of lipoprotein remnants and lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] reported new risk factors of residual CVD risk. And as new risk factors are being discovered and new therapies are being tested, residual CVD risk will be reduced further. As we move from CVD risk reduction to improvement of patient management, a paradigm shift from a reductionistic approach towards a holistic approach is required. To that purpose, a personalized treatment dependent on the individual's CVD risk factors including lipid profile abnormalities should be configured, along the line of P5 medicine for each individual patient, i.e., with Predictive, Preventive, Personalized, Participatory, and Psycho-cognitive approaches.

[Ischemic stroke and vascular risk factors in young and older adults. Community-based retrospective study (2011-2020)]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the presence of vascular risk factors (VRF) among young adult and older adult patients with ischemic stroke, with and without follow-up in primary care after hospital discharge.

DESIGN

Observational, retrospective, multicenter study.

SETTING

Primary care health centers and Hospital Verge de la Cinta, Tortosa, Spain.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with ischemic stroke of two age groups (≤55 and ≥65years) distributed in two groups (GroupA: without follow-up in primary care; and GroupB: with follow-up in primary care), between 2011-2020.

MAIN MEASUREMENTS

Sociodemographic, clinical, and VRF data coded according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10). Descriptive, and inferential statistics.

RESULTS

Data from 2054 participants were analyzed. In the young adult group, 94.9% of the participants in groupA had between 1-2VRFs, compared to 60% in groupB. In the older adult group, 84.4% of groupA had between 1-2VRFs, compared to 43,9% of groupB. The most frequent VRFs among younger and older adult patients with ischemic stroke were hypertension and dyslipidemia in both follow-up groups. There were no records of obesity, smoking, or alcohol consumption in groupA. There was a significant association between being followed up in primary care after stroke and being a young adult and presenting between 3-4 VRFs (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The results reinforce the need for continuity of care and follow-up in people with acute stroke in primary care and the need to improve the quality of registries.

Evaluation of Blood Biomarkers and Parameters for the Prediction of Stroke Survivors' Functional Outcome upon Discharge Utilizing Explainable Machine Learning

Despite therapeutic advancements, stroke remains a leading cause of death and long-term disability. The quality of current stroke prognostic models varies considerably, whereas prediction models of post-stroke disability and mortality are restricted by the sample size, the range of clinical and risk factors and the clinical applicability in general. Accurate prognostication can ease post-stroke discharge planning and help healthcare practitioners individualize aggressive treatment or palliative care, based on projected life expectancy and clinical course. In this study, we aimed to develop an explainable machine learning methodology to predict functional outcomes of stroke patients at discharge, using the Modified Rankin Scale (mRS) as a binary classification problem. We identified 35 parameters from the admission, the first 72 h, as well as the medical history of stroke patients, and used them to train the model. We divided the patients into two classes in two approaches: "Independent" vs. "Non-Independent" and "Non-Disability" vs. "Disability". Using various classifiers, we found that the best models in both approaches had an upward trend, with respect to the selected biomarkers, and achieved a maximum accuracy of 88.57% and 89.29%, respectively. The common features in both approaches included: age, hemispheric stroke localization, stroke localization based on blood supply, development of respiratory infection, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) upon admission and systolic blood pressure levels upon admission. Intubation and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels upon admission are additional features for the first approach and Erythrocyte Sedimentation Rate (ESR) levels upon admission for the second. Our results suggest that the said factors may be important predictors of functional outcomes in stroke patients.

Use of lipid-lowering therapy after ischaemic stroke and expected benefit from intensification of treatment

Objectives

Elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) increases the risk of recurrent cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. We examined use of lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) following ischaemic stroke, and estimated benefits from guideline-based up-titration of LLT.

Methods

The Norwegian COgnitive Impairment After STroke (Nor-COAST) study, a multicentre prospective cohort study, collected data on LLT use, dose intensity and LDL-C levels for 462 home-dwelling patients with ischaemic stroke. We used the Secondary Manifestations of Arterial Disease-Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (SMART-REACH) model to estimate the expected benefit of up-titrating LLT.

Results

At discharge, 92% received LLT (97% statin monotherapy). Patients with prestroke dementia and cardioembolic stroke aetiology were less likely to receive LLT. Older patients (coefficient −3 mg atorvastatin per 10 years, 95% CI −6 to −0.5) and women (coefficient −5.1 mg atorvastatin, 95% CI −9.2 to −0.9) received lower doses, while individuals with higher baseline LDL-C, ischaemic heart disease and large artery stroke aetiology received higher dose intensity. At 3 months, 45% reached LDL-C ≤1.8 mmol/L, and we estimated that 81% could potentially reach the target with statin and ezetimibe, resulting in median 5 (IQR 0–12) months of CVD-free life gain and median 2% 10-year absolute risk reduction (IQR 0–4) with large interindividual variation.

Conclusion

Potential for optimisation of conventional LLT use exists in patients with ischaemic stroke. Awareness of groups at risk of undertreatment and objective estimates of the individual patient’s benefit of intensification can help personalise treatment decisions and reduce residual cholesterol risk.

Trial registration number

NCT02650531.