Magnesemia: an independent risk factor of hypocalcemia after thyroidectomy

A Potential Four-Gene Signature and Nomogram for Predicting the Overall Survival of Papillary Thyroid Cancer

Background. Although the prognosis of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is relatively good, some patients experience recurrence or distant metastasis after thyroidectomy and progress to radioactive iodine refractory stage. Therefore, accurate prediction of clinical outlook can aid to screen out the minority of patients with poorer prognosis and avoid excessive treatment in low-risk patients. Methods. The RNA-seq and clinical data of PTC patients was downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) and the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) databases. Multivariate and Lasso Cox regression analyses were used to construct a prognostic nomogram to predict overall survival (OS). Thereafter, quantitative RT-PCR and Human Protein Atlas (HPA) database were employed to verify the expression of key genes. Results. A four-gene risk score comprising ABI3BP, DPT, MRO, and TENM1 was exhibited strong prognostic value. Moreover, an integrated nomogram was established based on the risk score, age, AJCC (American Joint Commission on Cancer) stage, tumor size, extrathyroidal extension, and history of neoadjuvant treatment, which exhibited significantly better predictive performance than TNM stage system ( $P<0.05$ ). GSEA (Gene Set Enrichment Analysis) and GSVA (Gene Set Variation Analysis) revealed that the different tumor-associated hallmarks, biological processes, and pathways were substantially enriched in the poor-prognosis group. In addition, a ceRNA network was constructed by including the four genes (ABI3BP, DPT, MRO, and TENM1), 54 lncRNAs, and 10 miRNAs. Finally, both the relative mRNA and protein expression of ABI3BP, DPT, MRO, and TENM1 were validated. Conclusion. The present study identified a four-gene risk signature and developed a novel nomogram, which could be regarded as a reliable prognostic model for PTC patients. The findings also revealed preliminary potential mechanisms that may influence the prognosis outcome. These results can be conducive to design personalized treatment and prognosis management in affected patients.

Nomogram individually predicts the risk for distant metastasis and prognosis value in female differentiated thyroid cancer patients: A SEER-based study

Objective

Distant metastasis (DM) is an important prognostic factor in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) and determines the course of treatment. This study aimed to establish a predictive nomogram model that could individually estimate the risk of DM and analyze the prognosis of female DTC patients (FDTCs).

Materials and methods

A total of 26,998 FDTCs were retrospectively searched from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2018 and randomly divided into validation and training cohorts. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to screen for prognostic factors and construct a prediction nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), concordance index (C-index), and a calibration curve. The overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were evaluated by Kaplan–Meier (K-M) analysis.

Results

A total of 263 (0.97%) FDTCs were reported to have DM. K-M analysis showed the association of multiple-organ metastases and brain involvement with lower survival rates (P &lt; 0.001) in patients. Tumor size, age at diagnosis, thyroidectomy, N1 stage, T3–4 stage, and pathological type were independent predictive factors of DM in FDTCs (all P &lt; 0.001). Similarly, age at diagnosis, Black, DM, T3–4 stage, thyroidectomy, and lung metastasis were determined as independent prognostic factors for FDTCs (all P &lt; 0.001). Several predictive nomograms were established based on the above factors. The C-index, AUC, and calibration curves demonstrated a good performance of these nomogram models.

Conclusion

Our study was successful in establishing and validating nomograms that could predict DM, as well as CSS and OS in individual patients with FDTC based on a large study cohort. These nomograms could enable surgeons to perform individualized survival evaluation and risk stratification for FDTCs.

Prediction Model of Postoperative Severe Hypocalcemia in Patients with Secondary Hyperparathyroidism Based on Logistic Regression and XGBoost Algorithm

Objective

A predictive model was established based on logistic regression and XGBoost algorithm to investigate the factors related to postoperative hypocalcemia in patients with secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT).

Methods

A total of 60 SHPT patients who underwent parathyroidectomy (PTX) in our hospital were retrospectively enrolled. All patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 42) and a test set (n = 18). The clinical data of the patients were analyzed, including gender, age, dialysis time, body mass, and several preoperative biochemical indicators. The multivariate logistic regression and XGBoost algorithm models were used to analyze the independent risk factors for severe postoperative hypocalcemia (SH). The forecasting efficiency of the two prediction models is analyzed.

Results

Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that body mass (OR = 1.203, P = 0.032), age (OR = 1.214, P = 0.035), preoperative PTH (OR = 1.026, P = 0.043), preoperative Ca (OR = 1.062, P = 0.025), and preoperative ALP (OR = 1.031, P = 0.027) were positively correlated with postoperative SH. The top three important features of XGBoost algorithm prediction model were preoperative Ca, preoperative PTH, and preoperative ALP. The area under the curve of the logistic regression and XGBoost algorithm model in the test set was 0.734 (95% CI: 0.595~0.872) and 0.827 (95% CI: 0.722~0.932), respectively.

Conclusion

The predictive models based on the logistic regression and XGBoost algorithm model can predict the occurrence of postoperative SH.

Incidence and predictive factors of postoperative hypocalcaemia according to type of thyroid surgery in older adults

PURPOSE

Transient hypocalcaemia after thyroid surgery and its possible predictors have not been extensively described in the elderly. This study aimed to establish the frequency of postsurgical transient hypocalcaemia according to the extent of thyroid surgery in older adults and to assess mineral metabolism biochemical parameters as its predictors.

METHODS

All patients ≥60 years undergoing thyroid surgery were prospectively included. Type of surgery (hemithyroidectomy(HT) or total thyroidectomy(TT)); and preoperative 25OH Vitamin D (25OHD) and pre and 6 (only TT), 24 h and 6 months postsurgical serum levels of calcium, magnesium, phosphate and parathormone (PTH) were considered. Postsurgical hypoparathyroidism (hPTpost) was defined at PTH levels ≤11 pg/mL.

RESULTS

Out of 46 patients (87% female), age (mean ± SD) 70.1 ± 6.2 years, 24 h postsurgical hypocalcaemia was found in ten patients (22%). In 25 (54%) TT patients, 36% and 16% had postsurgical hypocalcaemia at 6 and 24 h respectively; 28% hPTpost but no definitive hPT was recorded and 44% had 25OHD deficiency. Lower 24 h magnesium levels were found in those TT patients with 24 h hypocalcaemia (1.6 ± 0.1 vs 1.9 ± 0.1 mg/dL (p = 0.005)). Among 21 (46%) HT patients, 28.6% had 24 h postsurgical hypocalcaemia; 9.5% had hPTpost. A positive correlation was observed between preoperative 25OHD and 24 h calcaemia (r:0.51,p = 0.02). 43% of the patients were 25OHD deficient, in whom 55% had 24 h hypocalcaemia vs only 9% in the 25OHD sufficient group (p = 0.049).

CONCLUSION

Postsurgical hypocalcaemia was common in elderly thyroidectomized patients. After TT, lower magnesium levels were found in those patients with 24 h hypocalcaemia. In the HT group, preoperative 25OHD deficiency predicted lower postsurgical calcium levels.

Identification and validation of potential novel biomarkers to predict distant metastasis in differentiated thyroid cancer

Background

Distant metastasis (DM) is not common in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). However, it is associated with a significantly poor prognosis. Early detection of high-risk DTC patients is difficult, and the molecular mechanism is still unclear. Therefore, the present study aims to establish a novel predictive model based on clinicopathological parameters and DM-related gene signatures to provide guidelines for clinicians in decision making.

Methods

Weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) was performed to discover co-expressed gene modules and hub genes associated with DM. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to identify independent clinicopathological risk factors based on The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. An integrated nomogram prediction model was established. Finally, real hub genes were validated using the GSE60542 database and various thyroid cell lines.

Results

The midnightblue module was most significantly positively correlated with DM (R=0.56, P=9e-06) by as per WGCNA. DLX5 (AUC: 0.769), COX6B2 (AUC: 0.764), and LYPD1 (AUC: 0.760) were determined to be the real hub genes that play a crucial role in predicting DM. Meanwhile, univariate and multivariate analyses demonstrated that T-stage (OR, 15.03; 95% CI, 1.75-319.40; and P=0.024), histologic subtype (OR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.03-0.92; and P=0.042) were the independent predictors of DM. Subsequently, a nomogram model was constructed based on gene signatures and independent clinical risk factors exhibited good performance. Additionally, the mRNA expressions of real hub genes in the GSE60542 dataset were consistent with TCGA.

Conclusions

The present study has provided a reliable model to predict DM in patients with DTC. This model is likely to serve as an individual risk assessment tool in therapeutic decision-making.

Risk factors for postoperative hypocalcaemia after thyroidectomy: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective

A meta-analysis to investigate the risk factors for postoperative hypocalcaemia after thyroidectomy in adult patients.

Methods

A systematic search of publications in the electronic databases (PubMed®, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science, OVID and Embase®) from inception to June 2020 was conducted. Screening of titles, abstracts and full texts and data extraction were independently performed by two authors. The OR was selected as the pooled estimate.

Results

The analysis included 23 studies. Twelve significant risk factors for postoperative hypocalcaemia were identified: hypoparathyroidism, OR 5.58; total thyroidectomy, OR 3.59; hypomagnesaemia, OR 2.85; preoperative vitamin D deficiency, OR 2.32; female sex, OR 1.49; thyroid malignancy, OR 1.85; thyroiditis, OR 1.48; substernal multinodular goitres, OR 1.70; parathyroidectomy, OR 1.58; central compartment neck dissection, OR 1.17; modified radical neck dissection, OR 1.57; and central neck dissection, OR 1.54.

Conclusions

This meta-analysis provides moderate-to-high quality evidence that the 12 risk factors were predictive of postoperative hypocalcaemia, which should be monitored closely before thyroidectomy.

Short-term recovery in patients suffering hypoparathyroid after thyroidectomy: a case control study

Background

Postoperative hypoparathyroidism is the main reason for outpatient follow-up and long-term oral calcium and calcitriol treatment. Our study investigated the influencing factors and powerful predictors of short-term postoperative parathyroid function recovery.

Methods

Logistic regression was used to compare the clinicopathological characteristics; surgical details; and serum calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), and phosphorus (P) concentrations of patients. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the predictors of normal parathyroid hormone (PTH).

Results

Among the 111 patients with PTH < 10 pg/mL on the first postoperative day, most patients experienced a return to normal PTH (PTH > 15 pg/mL) within 30 days postoperatively. Univariate analysis showed that Pod (postoperative day) 1 PTH, Pod3 PTH, Pod7 Ca, Pod7 Mg, and Pod7 P (P < 0.05) were associated with parathyroid function recovery to normal on the seventh postoperative day. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed the following independent risk factors for normal PTH levels at Pod7 after thyroidectomy: Pod3 PTH (P = 0.038), Pod1 PTH (P = 0.056), Pod7 Mg (P = 0.001), Pod7 P (P = 0.020), and the number of parathyroid glands in situ intraoperatively. The combined sensitivity of serum magnesium concentration and phosphorus concentration to predict parathyroid function recover to normal on the seventh postoperative day was 82.76%, with a sensitivity of 76.83%.

Conclusion

Serum magnesium, phosphorus and PTH concentrations are important influencing factors and effective predictors of short-term postoperative parathyroid function recovery to normal. Serum ion is an effective auxiliary diagnostic method for hypoparathyroidism after thyroidectomy.

Association of Hypocalcemia and Magnesium Disorders With Thyroidectomy in Commercially Insured Patients

Importance

Hypocalcemia is a common complication of total thyroidectomy.

Objectives

To identify factors associated with hypocalcemia after total thyroidectomy and to explore the association between hypocalcemia, magnesium disorders, and costs of care.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A retrospective cross-sectional analysis was performed using data from the MarketScan Commercial Claim and Encounters database on 126 766 commercially insured patients younger than 65 years undergoing total thyroidectomy between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2012. Statistical analysis was performed from January 1, 2016, to May 30, 2019.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Short- and long-term hypocalcemia and the costs of care were examined using multivariable regression modeling.

Results

Among the 126 766 patients in the study (81.6% women; mean age, 46.5 years [range, 18-64 years]), postoperative hypocalcemia was present in 19.1% of patients in the initial 30-day postoperative period and in 4.4% of patients at 1 year. Magnesium disorders were present in 2.1% of patients at the time of surgery. Short- and long-term hypocalcemia were significantly more likely in women (short-term: odds ratio [OR], 1.39 [95% CI, 1.29-1.50]; long-term: OR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.52-1.89]), those younger than 40 years (short-term: OR for ages 40-64 years, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.78-0.87]; long-term: OR for ages 40-64 years, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.67-0.79]), those with a diagnosis of thyroiditis (short-term: OR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.16-1.89]; long-term: OR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.13-2.26]) or cancer (short-term: OR, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.05-1.67]; long-term: OR, 1.17 [95% CI, 0.83-1.63]), vitamin D deficiency (short-term: OR, 1.96 [95% CI, 1.74-2.21]; long-term: OR, 3.72 [95% CI, 3.30-4.18]), concurrent lateral neck dissection (short-term: OR, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.37-1.66]; long-term: OR, 1.95 [95% CI, 1.69-2.26]), concurrent central neck dissection (short-term: OR, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.07-1.24]; long-term: OR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.12-1.40]), intraoperative parathyroid (short-term: OR, 1.58 [95% CI, 1.46-1.71]; and long-term: OR, 2.05 [95% CI, 1.82-2.31]) or recurrent laryngeal nerve injury (short-term: OR, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.27-1.74]; long-term: OR, 2.04 [95% CI, 1.64-2.54]), and magnesium disorders (short-term: OR, 8.40 [95% CI, 7.21-9.79]; long-term: OR, 25.23 [95% CI, 19.80-32.17]). Compared with the initial postoperative period, the odds of hypocalcemia decreased by 90.0% (OR, 0.10 [95% CI, 0.09-0.11]) at 6 months and 93.0% (OR, 0.07 [95% CI, 0.06-0.08]) at 1 year. After controlling for all other variables, magnesium disorders were associated with the highest odds of short- and long-term postoperative hypocalcemia. Hypocalcemia ($3392) and magnesium disorders ($14 314) were associated with increased mean incremental 1-year costs of care.

Conclusions and Relevance

Hypocalcemia is common after total thyroidectomy but resolves in most patients by 1 year. Magnesium disorders are significantly independently associated with short- and long-term hypocalcemia and are associated with greater costs of care. These data suggest a potentially modifiable target to reduce the incidence and cost of long-term hypocalcemia at patient and systemic levels.

The Effect of Hypomagnesemia on Refractory Hypocalcemia after Total Thyroidectomy: A Single-Center Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Hypomagnesemia is known to impede hypocalcemia correction. This prospective observational study aimed to evaluate the impact of serum magnesium levels on the development of refractory hypocalcemia, which remains a concerning problem after total thyroidectomy (TT).

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Consecutive subjects (n = 312; mean age = 38.4 [range: 13-83] years; M:F = 62:250) undergoing TT for benign or malignant thyroid diseases were evaluated for serum corrected-calcium (8.4-10.4 mg/dL), magnesium (1.7-2.4 mg/dL), intact parathormone (iPTH), and 25-hydroxycholecalciferol (25OHD) levels preoperatively, at 48-h and 6-month post-TT.

RESULTS

Postoperatively, 98 subjects (31.4%) exhibited transient hypocalcemia, 96 (30.8%) had hypomagnesemia, and 52 (16.7%) had refractory hypocalcemia. Preoperatively, 38 subjects (12.2%) had asymptomatic hypocalcemia and 77 (24.7%) had hypomagnesemia. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, independent risk factors of transient hypocalcemia were hyperthyroidism (odd's ratio [OR]: 5.6), 48-h iPTH (OR: 3.2), 48-h magnesium (OR: 2.7), preoperative 25OHD (OR: 0.96), and preoperative calcium (OR: 0.5; each P < 0.01). In receiver-operating characteristic analysis, percent calcium decline and 48-h magnesium reliably predicted transient hypocalcemia with a threshold of 10.5% and 1.9 mg/dL, respectively. Area under curve, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.822, 82.7%, and 72.9%; and 0.649 (each P < 0.001), 68.4%, and 63.1%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Serum magnesium below 1.9 mg/dL had 2.7 times higher odds of developing transient hypocalcemia post-TT. Hypomagnesemia and percent calcium decline >10.5% within 48-h post-TT are associated with refractory hypocalcemia, which necessitates correction of both the deficiencies for prompt resolution of symptoms.

A nomogram to predict skip metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer

Background

Skip metastases are defined as lateral lymph node metastasis (LNM) without the involvement of central LNM in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), and it is difficult to predict in clinical practice. Our study aimed to investigate the risk factors of skip metastasis and establish a nomogram for predicting the probability of skip metastasis in PTC patients.

Patients and methods

A total of 378 consecutive PTC patients with clinically suspected LNM who underwent modified radical neck dissection (MRND) from March 2018 to July 2019 in our hospital were enrolled. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to examine risk factors of skip metastasis, and a nomogram prediction model was established and internally validated.

Results

The incidence of skip metastases was 11.6% (44/378). Primary tumor size of ≤ 1 cm (OR = 2.703; 95% CI, 1.342–5.464; P = 0.005), age (OR = 1.051; 95% CI, 1.017–1.805; P = 0.005), and primary tumor location in the upper portion (OR = 6.799; 95% CI, 2.710–17.060; P < 0.001) were found to be independent risk factors for skip metastasis in PTC patients. A nomogram based upon these predictors performed well. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.806 (95% CI, 0.736–0.876), and the P value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was 0.66. Decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram was clinically useful.

Conclusion

Based on the risk factors of skip metastasis, a high-performance nomogram was established, which can provide an individual risk assessment and can guide treatment decisions for patients.

Preoperative Sonographic and Clinicopathological Predictors for Solitary Lateral Neck Node Metastasis in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma: A Retrospective Study

Background

Cervical lymph node metastasis (LNM) is an independent risk factor for poor prognosis of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), but the scope of PTC lateral neck dissection (LND) is controversial. Solitary lateral lymph node metastasis (SLNM) is a special type of PTC with lateral LNM. Currently, study on the preoperative clinical characteristics of SLNM has been seldomly reported. This study evaluated the preoperative characteristics for predicting the SLNM of PTC.

Methods

We included 391 patients diagnosed with PTC between May 2011 and July 2017. Among those patients, 44 had SLNM and 347 had multiple lateral neck node metastasis (MLNM). The clinicopathologic characteristics and other central lymph node metastasis risk factors were retrospectively analyzed.

Results

Univariate analysis revealed that age and tumor size (≤1 cm) were significantly correlated with SLNM. In ROC curve analysis, the optimal cutoff age of preoperative predictors for the prediction of SLNM was 46.5 years (AUC=0.623, 0.536–0.710). Besides, the frequency and mean number of CLNM was significantly less in the SLNM than MLNM group. The oval and round tumor shape and well-defined margin of the tumor were more common in the SLNM group (p =0.001; p=0.024, respectively). In addition, multivariate analysis revealed that age ≥47, capsular invasion, no extrathyroidal extension, with central lymph node metastases and irregular shape were independent SLNM predictors of PTCs (odds ratio 2.386, 0.173, 0.284, 0.239, 0.188; 95% CI 1.07–5.140, 0.058–0.840, 0.066–0.926, 0.091–0.437, 0.167–0.864, respectively).

Conclusion

This study supported that SLNM is more likely to happen in PTC patients with age ≥47 years, capsular invasion, no extrathyroidal extension, with central lymph node metastases and irregular shape. That denotes, selective single level neck dissection can be considered as an alternative to systemic lateral neck dissection in those patients.