Novel Prognostic Nomograms for Predicting Early and Late Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Curative Hepatectomy

Preoperative prediction of microvascular invasion classification in hepatocellular carcinoma based on clinical features and MRI parameters

Microvascular invasion (MVI) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a critical pathological factor and the degree of MVI influences treatment decisions and patient prognosis. The present study aimed to predict the MVI classification based on preoperative MRI features and clinical parameters. The present retrospective cohort study included 150 patients (training cohort, n=108; validation cohort, n=42) with pathologically confirmed HCC. Clinical and imaging characteristics data were collected from Shengli Oilfield Central Hospital (Dongying, China). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess the association of clinical variables and MRI parameters with MVI (grade M1 and M2) and the M2 classification. Nomograms were developed based on the predictive factors of MVI and the M2 classification. The discrimination capability, calibration and clinical usefulness of the nomograms were evaluated. Multivariate analysis revealed an association between the Lens culinaris agglutinin-reactive fraction of α-fetoprotein, protein induced by vitamin K absence-II and tumor margin and MVI-positive status, while peritumoral enhancement and tumor size were demonstrated to be marginal predictors, but were also included in the nomogram. However, among MVI-positive patients, only peritumoral hypointensity and tumor size were demonstrated to be risk factors for the M2 classification. The nomograms, incorporating these variables, exhibited a strong ability to discriminate between MVI-positive and MVI-negative patients with HCC in both the training and validation cohort [area under the curve (AUC), 0.877 and 0.914, respectively] and good performance in predicting the M2 classification in the training and validation cohorts (AUC, 0.720 and 0.782, respectively). Nomograms incorporating clinical parameters and preoperative MRI features demonstrated promising potential as straightforward and effective tools for predicting MVI and the M2 classification in patients with HCC. Such predictive tools could aid in the judicious selection of optimal clinical treatments.

Predictive value of radiomics analysis of enhanced CT for three-tiered microvascular invasion grading in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is a major risk factor, for recurrence and metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radical surgery and liver transplantation. However, its diagnosis depends on the pathological examination of the resected specimen after surgery; therefore, predicting MVI before surgery is necessary to provide reference value for clinical treatment. Meanwhile, predicting only the existence of MVI is not enough, as it ignores the degree, quantity, and distribution of MVI and may lead to MVI-positive patients suffering due to inappropriate treatment. Although some studies have involved M2 (high risk of MVI), majority have adopted the binary classification method or have not included radiomics.

PURPOSE

To develop three-class classification models for predicting the grade of MVI of HCC by combining enhanced computed tomography radiomics features with clinical risk factors.

METHODS

The data of 166 patients with HCC confirmed by surgery and pathology were analyzed retrospectively. The patients were divided into the training (116 cases) and test (50 cases) groups at a ratio of 7:3. Of them, 69 cases were MVI positive in the training group, including 45 cases in the low-risk group (M1) and 24 cases in the high-risk group (M2), and 47 cases were MVI negative (M0). In the training group, the optimal subset features were obtained through feature selection, and the arterial phase radiomics model, portal venous phase radiomics model, delayed phase radiomics model, three-phase radiomics model, clinical imaging model, and combined model were developed using Linear Support Vector Classification. The test group was used for validation, and the efficacy of each model was evaluated through the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC).

RESULTS

The clinical imaging features of MVI included alpha-fetoprotein, tumor size, tumor margin, peritumoral enhancement, intratumoral artery, and low-density halo. The area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC values of the clinical imaging model for M0, M1, and M2 were 0.831, 0.701, and 0.847, respectively, in the training group and 0.782, 0.534, and 0.785, respectively, in the test group. After combined radiomics analyis, the AUC values for M0, M1, and M2 in the test group were 0.818, 0.688, and 0.867, respectively. The difference between the clinical imaging model and the combined model was statistically significant (p = 0.029).

CONCLUSION

The clinical imaging model and radiomics model developed in this study had a specific predictive value for HCC MVI grading, which can provide precise reference value for preoperative clinical diagnosis and treatment. The combined application of the two models had a high predictive efficacy.

Macrotrabecular-massive subtype-based nomogram to predict early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after surgery

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the predictive factors on early postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to establish a new nomogram to predict early postoperative recurrence of HCC.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 383 patients who had undergone curative resection between February 2012 and September 2020 in our center was performed. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival curve analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression were performed to identify independent risk factors associated with early recurrence, and a nomogram for predicting early recurrence of HCC was established.

RESULTS

A total of 152/383 patients developed recurrence after surgery, of which 83 had recurrence within 1 year. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that preoperative alpha-fetoprotein level ≥400 ng/ml (P = 0.001), tumor diameter ≥5 cm (P = 0.009) and MVI (P = 0.007 and macrotrabecular-massive HCC (P = 0.003) were independent risk factors for early postoperative recurrence of HCC. The macrotrabecular-massive-based nomogram obtained a good C-index (0.74) for predicting early recurrence of HCC, and the area under the curve for predicting early recurrence was 0.767, which was better than the single American Joint Committee on Cancer T stage and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram based on macrotrabecular-massive HCC can effectively predict early postoperative recurrence of HCC.

Advances in post-operative prognostic models for hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignancies and a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Surgery remains the primary and most successful therapy option for the treatment of early- and mid-stage HCCs, but the high heterogeneity of HCC renders prognostic prediction challenging. The construction of relevant prognostic models helps to stratify the prognosis of surgically treated patients and guide personalized clinical decision-making, thereby improving patient survival rates. Currently, the prognostic assessment of HCC is based on several commonly used staging systems, such as Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM), Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP), and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC). Given the insufficiency of these staging systems and the aim to improve the accuracy of prognostic prediction, researchers have incorporated further prognostic factors, such as microvascular infiltration, and proposed some new prognostic models for HCC. To provide insights into the prospects of clinical oncology research, this review describes the commonly used HCC staging systems and new models proposed in recent years.

Clinical implications and biological features of a novel postoperative recurrent HCC classification: A multi-centre study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The multiplicity of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence patterns is the most important determinant of patients' postsurgical survival. A systematic HCC recurrence classification is needed to help prevent and treat postoperative HCC recurrence in the era of precision medicine.

METHODS

A total of 1319 patients with recurrent HCC from four hospitals were enrolled and divided into a development cohort (n = 916), internal validation cohort (n = 225) and external validation cohort (n = 178). A comprehensive study of patients' clinicopathological factors and biological features was conducted.

RESULTS

Four subtypes of recurrence were identified, which integrated recurrence features, survival, effects on systemic and liver function and potential therapeutics after recurrence: type I (solitary-intrahepatic oligorecurrence); type II (multi-intrahepatic oligorecurrence); type III (progression recurrence) and type IV (hyper-progression recurrence). Type III~IV recurrence indicated exceptionally poor prognosis. Subsequently, two nomogram models were established for type III~IV recurrence prediction, and both demonstrated excellent predictive performance and applicability of pre and postoperative strategy formulation. Multiple biological analyses revealed that HCC cases with type III~IV recurrence were characterized by enrichment in p53 mutations, CCND1 amplification, high proliferation/metastasis potential, inactive metabolism and immune exhaustion features. Over-expression of high mobility group protein 2 (HMGA2) enhanced the highly malignant behaviour of HCC through multiple molecular pathways, making it a potential prognostic predictor and therapeutic target.

CONCLUSIONS

This 'recurrent HCC classification' has important potential value in identifying patients with surgical benefit, predicting postsurgical survival and guiding treatment strategies. Multidimensional biological insights also increased knowledge of factors associated with HCC recurrence.

The ALBI score: From liver function in patients with HCC to a general measure of liver function

The (albumin-bilirubin) ‘ALBI’ score is an index of ‘liver function’ that was recently developed to assess prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, irrespective of the degree of underlying liver fibrosis. Other measures of liver function, such as model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh score, which were introduced for specific clinical scenarios, have seen their use extended to other areas of hepatology. In the case of ALBI, its application has been increasingly extended to chronic liver disease in general and in some instances to non-liver diseases where it has proven remarkably accurate in terms of prognosis. With respect to chronic liver disease, numerous publications have shown that ALBI is highly prognostic in patients with all types and stages of chronic liver disease. Outside of liver disease, ALBI has been reported as being of prognostic value in conditions ranging from chronic heart failure to brain tumours. Whilst in several of these reports, explanations for the relationship of liver function to a clinical condition have been proposed, it has to be acknowledged that the specificity of ALBI for liver function has not been clearly demonstrated. Nonetheless, and similar to the MELD and Child-Pugh scores, the lack of any mechanistic basis for ALBI’s clinical utility does not preclude it from being clinically useful in certain situations. Why albumin and bilirubin levels, or a combination thereof, are prognostic in so many different diseases should be studied in the future.

Rethinking Liver Fibrosis Staging in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: New Insights from a Large Two-Center Cohort Study

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a prevalent and aggressive malignancy closely related to background chronic liver disease. This study aimed to explore predictive factors associated with background liver fibrosis burden in patients with HCC and sought to construct a practical predictive model for clinical use.

Methods

This large two-center retrospective cohort study evaluated data from Chinese medical centers. Uni- and multivariate ordinal logistic regression analyses were performed to identify variables associated with liver fibrosis stages. Predictive models based on variables identified by multivariate analysis were established in the Derivation Cohort and subjected to internal and external validation. Model performance was evaluated for discriminative and calibration abilities.

Results

Multivariate ordinal logistic regression analysis identified liver fibrosis severity score (LFSS), portal hypertension (PH) severity, plateletcrit (PCT) and model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) as independent predictors of liver fibrosis stage in HCC patients. Nomograms that integrated these factors disclosed that the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) to predict S1 in the Derivation and External Validation cohorts were 0.850 and 0.919, respectively. Internal validation disclosed C-indexes of 0.823 and 0.833 in the Derivation and External Validation cohorts, respectively, indicating that the nomogram had good and excellent performance for distinguishing between S1 and non-S1 patients. Nomogram performance in the Derivation and External Validation cohorts, respectively, was fair and good to predict stage S2 (AUROCs 0.726, 0.806; C-indexes 0.713, 0.791); poor for S3 (AUROCs 0.648, 0.698; C-indexes 0.616, 0.666); good for S4 (AUROCs 0.812, 0.824; C-indexes 0.804, 0.792); and good for S3+S4 (AUROCs 0.806, 0.840; C-indexes 0.795, 0.811).

Conclusion

We propose new predictive models for the staging of background liver fibrosis in patients with HCC that can be implemented into clinical practice as important complements to hepatic imaging to inform HCC management strategy.

Surgical resection versus radiofrequency ablation for early recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Surgical resection (SR) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) are reasonable treatment options for early recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma (rHCC), but it is still uncertain which treatment is better. The purpose of this study was to compare the therapeutic effects of SR and RFA on patients with early rHCC.

METHODS

This study enrolled 168 patients with early rHCC who underwent SR or RFA. The progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and complications between the treatment groups for the total and propensity score-matched (PSM) cohorts were compared.

RESULTS

Before PSM, the 1-, 3-, 5-year OS (94.8%, 63.0%, 36.1% vs. 93.8%, 58.5%, 35.4%, P  = 0.580) and PFS (50.7%, 22.7%, 12.0% vs. 68.8%, 30.3%, 15.9%, P  = 0.224) were similar in RFA group and the SR group. After PSM, the 1-, 3-, 5-year OS (95.5%, 71.1%, 53.3% vs. 95.5%, 58.0%, 42.1%, P  = 0.285) and PFS (50%, 36.4%, 27.3% vs. 68.2%, 25.6%, 12.8%, P  = 0.999) were similar in the RFA group and the SR group. For patients with early recurrent tumors ≤3 cm, RFA and SR could achieve similar curative effects. However, SR was superior to RFA in terms PFS for patients with early recurrent tumors >3 cm, but the OS was similar. For all patients, RFA had significantly fewer complications and shorter hospitalization time compared with SR.

CONCLUSION

SR achieves better tumor control compared with RFA for patients with early rHCC (>3 cm) after SR. RFA had significantly fewer complications and shorter hospitalization time compared with SR for all patients.

New Insights Into a Classification-Based Microvascular Invasion Prediction Model in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Multicenter Study

Background and Aims

Most microvascular invasion (MVI)-predicting models have not considered MVI classification, and thus do not reflect true MVI effects on prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to develop a novel MVI-predicting model focused on MVI classification, hoping to provide useful information for clinical treatment strategy decision-making.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted with data from two Chinese medical centers for 800 consecutive patients with HCC (derivation cohort) and 250 matched patients (external validation cohort). MVI-associated variables were identified by ordinal logistic regression. Predictive models were constructed based on multivariate analysis results and validated internally and externally. The models' discriminative ability and calibration ability were examined.

Results

Four factors associated independently with MVI: tumor diameter, tumor number, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) ≥ 176.58 U/L, and γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (γ-GGT). Area under the curve (AUC)s for our M2, M1, and M0 nomograms were 0.864, 0.648, and 0.782. Internal validation of all three models was confirmed with AUC analyses in D-sets (development datasets) and V-sets (validation datasets) and C-indices for each cohort. GiViTI calibration belt plots and Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) chi-squared calibration values demonstrated good consistency between observed frequencies and predicted probabilities for the M2 and M0 nomograms. Although the M1 nomogram was well calibrated, its discrimination was poor.

Conclusion

We developed and validated MVI prediction models in patients with HCC that differentiate MVI classification and may provide useful guidance for treatment planning.

Postoperative survival analysis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients with liver cirrhosis based on propensity score matching

OBJECTIVE

Most hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients in China have some degree of liver cirrhosis. The effect of cirrhosis on the long-term prognosis of HCC patients after hepatectomy is still unclear. This study aimed to investigate the effect of liver cirrhosis on the prognosis of HCC patients after hepatectomy.

METHODS

Data from patients who underwent hepatectomy and had pathologically confirmed HCC were retrospectively collected. The patients' clinical pathological data were recorded. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to eliminate the influence of potential confounding factors. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) rates, and Cox regression analysis was used to screen for independent risk factors affecting OS and RFS.

RESULTS

A total of 1381 HCC patients who were initially treated with hepatectomy were included, including 797 patients with liver cirrhosis. The RFS and OS rates in the group with cirrhosis were significantly lower than those in the group without cirrhosis (after PSM, RFS: P < 0.001; OS: P = 0.001). Subgroup analysis showed that among patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0-B disease, RFS and OS were significantly lower in those with cirrhosis than in those without cirrhosis (both P < 0.05); while in patients with stage C disease, there was no significant difference between those with and without cirrhosis. In the group with cirrhosis, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) > 400, intraoperative blood loss, tumor diameter > 5 cm, satellite lesions, and large vessel invasion were independent risk factors for RFS, while albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), tumor diameter > 5 cm, satellite lesions, microvascular invasion, and macrovascular invasion were independent risk factors for OS.

CONCLUSION

HCC with liver cirrhosis has specific characteristics. Compared with patients without cirrhosis, patients with cirrhosis have worse long-term survival after surgery. In addition, the independent risk factors for RFS and OS are different between patients with cirrhosis and without cirrhosis; liver cirrhosis is an independent risk factor for the long-term prognosis of HCC patients, especially patients with BCLC stage 0-B disease after hepatectomy.

Prediction of late recurrence after radiofrequency ablation of HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma with the age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets (aMAP) risk score: a multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Long-term survivals of patients with HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma are limited by the high incidence of tumor recurrence after radiofrequency ablation (RFA), identification of the risk factors and understanding the patterns of recurrence can help to improve the comprehensive management of patients after RFA. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to explore the prognostic value of the age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets (aMAP) score in patients with early-stage HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) receiving RFA; investigate the risk factors and patterns of late recurrence (LR); and develop a nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS).

METHODS

A retrospective review of HBV-related HCC patients who underwent primary RFA from March 2012 to December 2020 was conducted. The prognostic value of the aMAP score was evaluated in a primary cohort (n=302) and then further validated in an independent validation cohort (n=143). The optimal threshold of aMAP scores was calculated by X-tile 3.6.1 software. A prognostic nomogram was constructed from multivariate analysis and validated in an external validation cohort.

RESULTS

Patients with aMAP scores ≤63.8, 63.8-67.8, and >67.8 were classified into low-, medium-, and high-recurrence risk groups, respectively. The C-index to predict LR was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.700-0.810). The high-risk group was associated with the worst RFS (HR: 5.298; 95% CI, 2.697-10.408; P<0.001) and overall survival (OS) (HR: 2.639; 95% CI, 1.097-6.344; P=0.03) compared with medium- and low-risk groups. The aMAP score, multiple tumors and preoperative HBV DNA level were independent risk factors for LR. The proposed nomogram had excellent performance in predicting LR of HBV-related HCC [C-index: 0.82 (95% CI: 0.772-0.870)].

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that the aMAP score can serve as an objective predictor of LR for HBV-related HCC patients after RFA. The nomogram based on preoperative HBV DNA level, aMAP score, and number of tumors can reliably help clinicians to stratify the recurrence risk of HCC patients after RFA.

Development of a novel prognostic nomogram for the early recurrence of liver cancer after curative hepatectomy

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignant cancers worldwide. Curative resection is an effective treatment but HCC recurrence rates remain high. This study aimed to establish a novel prognostic nomogram to assess the risk of recurrence in patients following curative resection.

METHODS

A total of 410 patients undergoing HCC curative resection were recruited from the Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital (GDPH). The cohort was divided into a training group (n=291) and a validation group (n=97). The risk factors for HCC early recurrence within 1 year of curative hepatectomy were identified. Finally, a multivariate prognostic nomogram was developed and validated.

RESULTS

Age, tumor number, tumor capsule, portal vein tumor thrombi, pathological grade, vascular tumor emboli, activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), and tumor size were identified as independent prognostic risk factors for HCC early recurrence within 1 year of curative hepatectomy. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was 0.806 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.755 to 0.857; P<0.001], and no AUC/ROC statistical difference was detected between the training and validation sets.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram effectively predicted postoperative HCC recurrence within 1 year after curative hepatectomy, which may be a useful tool for the postoperative treatment or follow up for HCC patients.

ALBI grade: Evidence for an improved model for liver functional estimation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) usually arises in the context of a chronically damaged liver. Liver functional estimation is of paramount importance in clinical decision making. The Child-Pugh score (CPS) can be used to categorise patients into 3 classes (A to C) based on the severity of liver functional impairment according to 5 parameters (albumin, bilirubin, prothrombin time, presence of ascites and hepatic encephalopathy). The albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade has emerged as an alternative, reproducible and objective measure of liver functional reserve in patients with HCC, defining worsening liver impairment across 3 grades (I to III). The ALBI score can identify different subgroups of patients with different prognoses across the diverse Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages and CP classes, making it an appealing clinical predictor. In patients treated with potentially curative approaches (resection, transplantation, radiofrequency ablation, microwave ablation), ALBI grade has been shown to correlate with survival, tumour relapse, and post-hepatectomy liver failure. ALBI grade also predicts survival, toxicity and post-procedural liver failure in patients treated with transarterial chemoembolisation, radioembolisation, external beam radiotherapy as well as multi-kinase inhibitors (sorafenib, lenvatinib, cabozantinib, regorafenib) and immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy. In this review, we summarise the body of evidence surrounding the role of ALBI grade as a biomarker capable of optimising patient selection and therapeutic sequencing in HCC.

Spleen Radiomics Signature: A Potential Biomarker for Prediction of Early and Late Recurrences of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Resection

OBJECTIVES

To explore the usefulness of spleen radiomics features based on contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) in predicting early and late recurrences of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after curative resection.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 237 HCC patients who underwent CECT and curative resection between January 2006 to January 2016. Radiomic features were extracted from CECT images, and then the spleen radiomics signatures and the tumor radiomics signatures were built. Cox regression analysis was performed to identify the independent risk factors of early and late recurrences. Then, multiple models were built to predict the recurrence-free survival of HCC after resection, and the incremental value of the radiomics signature to the clinicopathologic model was assessed and validated. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to assess the association of the models with RFS.

RESULTS

The spleen radiomics signature was independent risk factor of early recurrence of HCC. The mixed model that integrated microvascular invasion, tumor radiomics signature and spleen radiomics signature for the prediction of early recurrence achieved the highest C-index of 0.780 (95% CI: 0.728,0.831) in the primary cohort and 0.776 (95% CI: 0.716,0.836) in the validation cohort, and presented better predictive performance than clinicopathological model and combined model. In the analysis of late recurrence, the spleen radiomics signature was the only prognostic factor associated with late recurrence of HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

The identified spleen radiomics signatures are prognostic factors of both early and late recurrences of HCC patients after surgery and improve the predictive performance of model for early recurrence.

Establishment and Evaluation of a Predictive Model for Early Postoperative Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Microvascular Invasion

Objective

The present study aimed to identify the risk factors for early postoperative recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with microvascular invasion (MVI) and develop a predictive model.

Inclusion Population and Methods

Patients who underwent surgery for HCC with pathological identification of MVI at the Cancer Hospital of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences from January 2014 to June 2019 were consecutively enrolled in this study. A total of 416 patients were included, divided into an early recurrence group (N = 169) and a non-early recurrence group (N = 247), taking 12 months as the cut-off point for early recurrence. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis was adopted to screen for risk factors for recurrence, and independence of risk factors was determined by logistic regression analysis. All variables were included in the logistic regression analysis. As previous studies have shown that tumor diameter is a risk factor for recurrence, this was also included in the analyses. A predictive model for early recurrence was established and evaluated.

Results

The results indicate that MVI grouping, preoperative serum AFP, number of tumors, satellite nodules, hepatic capsule invasion, tumor diameter, and lymph node metastasis are independent risk factors for early postoperative recurrence. The above factors were adopted to develop a predictive model. The model had good discrimination and calibration in predicting early postoperative recurrence. Decision curve analysis demonstrated good clinical utility.

Conclusion

MVI grouping, preoperative serum AFP, number of tumors, satellite nodules, hepatic capsule invasion, tumor diameter, and lymph node metastasis were shown to be independent risk factors for early postoperative recurrence. The predictive model developed by applying the above risk factors had good predictive value in patients with early postoperative recurrence.

Preoperative combi-elastography for the prediction of early recurrence after curative resection of hepatocellular carcinoma

PURPOSE

To estimate the prognostic value of preoperative combi-elastography for early recurrence (ER) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radical resection.

METHODS

A total of 94 HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy from January to August 2019 were included. The combined elastography (ARIETTA 850, Hitachi Healthcare) was used for real-time tissue elastography and shear wave measurement analysis. Six elastography related indicators were calculated. The patients were randomly divided into a training and a validation group in a 7:3 ratio and prediction model was assessed about discrimination capability by using area under the receiver operating curve. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the prognostic value of clinicopathological factors, laboratory tests, and elastography for HCC ER.

RESULTS

The Vs, E, F, and A indexes were significantly higher in patients with ER than in those without ER (P = 0.002, P = 0.002, P < 0.001, and P < 0.001, respectively). Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that microvascular invasion (MVI, odds ratio [OR] = 3.964, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.326-11.845; P = 0.010) and the F index (OR = 9.533, 95%CI = 1.921-47.296; P = 0.006) were independent predictors of ER in HCC. A ER prediction model based on laboratory tests, MVI and F index were moderate [area under curves (AUCs) in training and validation cohort were 0.829(95%CI: 0.723-0.935; P < 0.001) and 0.846 (95%CI: 0.699-0.994; P = 0.002), respectively].

CONCLUSION

Preoperative combi-elastography analysis could be used as a potential prognostic tool for HCC ER and assist in clinical decision-making.

High-intensity focused ultrasound alone or combined with transcatheter arterial chemoembolization for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma with unsuitable indications for hepatectomy and radiofrequency ablation: a phase II clinical trial

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to evaluate the efficacy and safety of high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) alone or combined with transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) but were contraindicated for hepatectomy and radiofrequency ablation (RFA).

METHODS

Patients between 20 and 80 years of age with 1-3 foci of HCC were selected. Included patients have had primary or recurrent liver lesions with no evidence of extra-hepatic metastasis prior to the study. Patients were treated with ultrasound-guided HIFU alone or HIFU combined with TACE (treated with TACE once within 4 weeks prior to receiving HIFU).

RESULTS

Thirty-seven patients were enrolled, for a total of 45 lesions. The 2-year local control (LC) rate was 73.0% and the median LC time was 22 months. The 2-year progression-free survival (PFS) was 29.7% and the median PFS time was 9 months. Finally, the 2-year overall survival (OS) was 70.3%, and the median OS time was 24 months. The most common adverse events (AEs) were elevated liver enzymes, followed by fatigue, and pain, no grade 4 AEs or death occurred. Multivariate analysis showed that age, Child-Pugh class, and the number of tumors were independent prognostic factors for PFS and that the AFP levels and the number of tumors were significantly correlated with the OS.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicates that the HIFU/HIFU combined with TACE treatment is safe, and is capable of achieving both a good LC rate and a considerably good prognosis. The procedure should be considered for patients who were deemed unsuitable for other local treatments.

Development of a computed tomography-based radiomics nomogram for prediction of transarterial chemoembolization refractoriness in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Some patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are more likely to experience disease progression despite continuous transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), which is called TACE refractoriness. At present, it is still difficult to predict TACE refractoriness, although some models/scoring systems have been developed. At present, radiological-based radiomics models have been successfully applied to predict cancer patient prognosis.

AIM

To develop and validate a computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics nomogram for the pre-treatment prediction of TACE refractoriness.

METHODS

This retrospective study consisted of a training dataset (n = 137) and an external validation dataset (n = 81) of patients with clinically/pathologically confirmed HCC who underwent repeated TACE from March 2009 to March 2016. Radiomics features were retrospectively extracted from preoperative CT images of the arterial phase. The pre-treatment radiomics signature was generated using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression analysis. A CT-based radiomics nomogram incorporating clinical risk factors and the radiomics signature was built and verified by calibration curve and decision curve analyses. The usefulness of the CT-based radiomics nomogram was assessed by Kaplan-Meier curve analysis. We used the concordance index to conduct head-to-head comparisons of the radiomics nomogram with the other four models (Assessment for Retreatment with Transarterial Chemoembolization score; α-fetoprotein, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer, Child-Pugh, and Response score; CT-based radiomics signature; and clinical model). All analyses were conducted according to the transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis statement.

RESULTS

The median duration of follow-up was 61.3 mo (interquartile range, 25.5-69.3 mo) for the training cohort and 67.1 mo (interquartile range, 32.4-71.3 mo) for the validation cohort. The median number of TACE sessions was 4 (range, 3-7) in both cohorts. Eight radiomics features were chosen from 869 candidate features to build a radiomics signature. The CT-based radiomics nomogram included the radiomics score (hazard ratio = 3.9, 95% confidence interval: 3.1-8.8, P < 0.001) and four clinical factors and classified patients into high-risk (score > 3.5) and low-risk (score ≤ 3.5) groups with markedly different prognoses (overall survival: 12.3 mo vs 23.6 mo, P < 0.001). The accuracy of the nomogram was considerably higher than that of the other four models. The calibration curve and decision curve analyses verified the usefulness of the CT-based radiomics nomogram for clinical practice.

CONCLUSION

The newly constructed CT-based radiomics nomogram can be used for the pre-treatment prediction of TACE refractoriness, which may provide better guidance for decision making regarding further TACE treatment.

Nomograms based on clinicopathological factors and inflammatory indicators for prediction of early and late recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after surgical resection for patients with chronic hepatitis B

Background

Few studies have focused on the prognostic values of inflammation-related factors for different phases of recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to identify the different risk factors for overall, early, and late recurrence, and to establish nomograms based on inflammation-related parameters for predicting the risks of recurrence in a group of HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy.

Methods

We retrospectively enrolled 383 HCC patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who underwent hepatectomy. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were conducted to identify independent risk factors for recurrence. Nomograms for overall, early, and late recurrence-free survival (RFS) were established. The discrimination and calibration abilities of the nomograms were evaluated by concordance indexes (C-index), calibration plots, and Kaplan-Meier curves. Finally, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to compare the derived nomograms with other existing models.

Results

Fibrinogen, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, and S-index inflammation-related factors were independently related to overall and early RFS, but only the S-index correlated with late recurrence. Nomograms with tumor number, diameter, and pathological differentiation for overall and early RFS were established, while nomogram for late recurrence was constructed with tumor number and Child-Pugh grade. The C-indexes for overall, early, and late RFS were 0.679, 0.677, and 0.728, respectively. The calibration plots fit well. The nomograms showed superior discrimination capacities and better performance prediction with larger areas under the curve for recurrence.

Conclusions

The developed nomograms that integrated inflammation-related factors showed high predictive accuracy for overall, early, and late recurrence in HCC patients with CHB after hepatectomy.