Prognostic Values of Different Clinicopathological Factors and Predictive Models for Penile Carcinoma

Development and validation of a predictive model for penile cancer based on the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database and multi-center cases

PURPOSE

Penile cancer (PC) is a great impact on the quality of life and psychological status of patients. This study aimed to construct nomograms using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with penile cancer (PC).

METHODS

Patients were divided into a training cohort (n = 634) and a validation cohort (n = 272) in a 7:3 ratio. Independent risk factors influencing the prognosis of PC were screened using univariate and multivariate Cox analyses, and models for predicting PC were developed. Data from 203 patients with PC in four tertiary hospitals in Gansu Province from 2012 to 2021 were externally validated.

RESULTS

Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis showed revealed that the OS-related factors were age, grade, T stage, N stage, M stage and tumor size (p < 0.05); the CSS-related factors were age, mode of surgery, T stage, N stage, M stage and tumor size (p < 0.05). The C-indices of the OS and CSS nomograms in the training cohort were 0.743 [95% confidence interval (CI) (0.714-0.772)] and 0.797 (0.762-0.832), respectively. The C-indices of the OS and CSS nomograms in the internal validation cohort were 0.735 (0.686-0.784) and 0.755 (0.688-0.822), respectively, and those in the external validation cohort were 0.801 (0.746-0.856) and 0.863 (0.812-0.914), respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and survival curves all demonstrated good predictive performance of the nomograms.

CONCLUSION

The nomograms for PC were developed using the SEER database. The accuracy and clinical usefulness of the model were validated through a combination of internal and external validations.

Real-world treatment outcomes of patients with penile cancer in the Kyushu-Okinawa area of Japan in the pre-guideline era

OBJECTIVES

To understand the real-world outcomes for patients with penile cancer in the Kyushu-Okinawa area before the introduction of practice guidelines in Japan.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected medical information on patients with penile squamous cell carcinoma and penile intraepithelial neoplasia at 12 university hospitals and their affiliated hospitals in the Kyushu-Okinawa area from January 2009 to December 2020. Patients with unknown clinical stage were excluded. Patient background characteristics and survival, as well as pretreatment factors involved in survival, were investigated.

RESULTS

A total of 196 patients were included. Patients with clinical stage 0, I, IIA, IIB, IIIA, IIIB and IV comprised 9.7, 26.0, 22.4, 2.6, 10.7, 14.3 and 14.3%, respectively. The median follow-up was 26 months, and the mean 5-year overall survival and cancer-specific survival rates were 74.3 and 79.8%, respectively. On univariate analysis, tumor diameter ≥ 30 mm, penile shaft tumor, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥ 1, cT ≥ 3, cN ≥ 2 and cM1 were associated with significantly poorer cancer-specific survival. On multivariate analysis, pretreatment factors of cN ≥ 2 (hazard ratio, 32.5; 95% confidence interval, 5.08-208; P = 0.0002), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥ 1 (4.42; 1.79-10.9; P = 0.0012) and cT ≥ 3 (3.34; 1.11-10.1; P = 0.0319) were identified as independent prognostic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed basic data for future penile cancer treatment and research, including survival rates according to clinical stages, and identified cN ≥ 2, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status ≥ 1 and cT ≥ 3 at initial diagnosis as independent prognostic factors. Evidence for penile cancer in Japan is particularly scarce, and future large-scale prospective studies are warranted.

Development and Verification of Prognostic Nomogram for Penile Cancer Based on the SEER Database

Aim

We aimed to establish a prognostic nomogram for penile cancer (PC) patients based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database.

Methods

Data from 1643 patients between 2010 and 2015 were downloaded and extracted from the SEER database. They were randomly divided into the development group (70%) and the verification group (30%), and then, univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression, respectively, was used to explore the possible risk factors of PC. The factors significantly related to overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were used to establish the nomogram, which was assessed via the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve. An internal validation was conducted to test the accuracy and effectiveness of the nomogram. Kaplan–Meier calculation was used to predict the further OS and CSS status of these patients.

Results

On multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression, the independent prognostic risk factors associated with OS were age, race, marital status, N/M stage, surgery, surgery of lymph nodes, and histologic type, with a moderate C-index of 0.737 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.713–0.760) and 0.766 (95% CI: 0.731–0.801) in the development and verification groups, respectively. The areas under the ROC (AUC) of 3- and 5-year OS were 0.749 and 0.770, respectively. While marital status, N/M stage, surgery, surgery of lymph nodes, and histologic type were significantly linked to PC patients' CSS, which have better C-index of 0.802 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.771–0.833) and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.775–0.865) in the development and verification groups, and the AUC of 3- and 5-year CSS were 0.766 and 0.787. Both of the survival calibration curves of 3- and 5-year OS and CSS brought out a high consistency.

Conclusion

Our study produced a satisfactory nomogram revealing the survival of PC patients, which could be helpful for clinicians to assess the situation of PC patients and to implement further treatment.