Development and Validation of Artificial Neural Networks for Survival Prediction Model for Patients with Spontaneous Hepatocellular Carcinoma Rupture After Transcatheter Arterial Embolization

Nomogram for Estimation of Acute Liver Failure Risk in Spontaneous Ruptured Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Purpose

Acute liver failure (ALF) is a severe complication of spontaneous ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma (SRHCC) that requires accurate prediction for effective treatment strategies. We aimed to develop a predictive nomogram to estimate the risk of ALF in patients with SRHCC undergoing treatment.

Patients and Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of historical data from 284 patients diagnosed with SRHCC at the First Hospital of Jilin University over the past decade. Variables were selected through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, and a predictive nomogram was constructed. We evaluated its predictive accuracy against the Child-Pugh Score, R.MELD, and ALBI by assessing discrimination, calibration, and net clinical benefit.

Results

Among the 284 patients, 65 developed ALF. The risk factors identified for model development included largest tumor size (LTS), platelet counts, prolonged prothrombin time, and elevated serum α-fetoprotein levels. The nomogram exhibited high accuracy in predicting ALF risk with a C-index of 0.91 (0.87-0.95). The Delong test showed a significant difference between the nomogram and the other three models (p<0.05). The calibration curve for the nomogram fit well, and the decision curve analysis revealed superior net benefit. The optimal cut-off point for the nomogram was determined to be 40, yielding sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 83.10%, 87.20%, 65.90% and 94.60%, respectively.

Conclusion

The nomogram we developed provides an optimized tool for predicting ALF in SRHCC patients. Its application can help determine individual patient's risk of ALF, enabling more rational and personalized treatment strategies.

Selective Arterial Embolization of Ruptured Hepatocellular Carcinoma with N-Butyl Cyanoacrylate and Lipiodol: Safety, Efficacy, and Short-Term Outcomes

The rupture of hepatocellular carcinoma (rHCC) is uncommon but causes sudden life-threatening bleeding. Selective transarterial embolization (STAE) is an effective bleeding-control option. The optimal embolic agent is unknown, and data on the use of cyanoacrylate glue are lacking. The objective of this study was to report the outcomes of cyanoacrylate-lipiodol embolization for rHCC. We retrospectively reviewed the files of the 16 patients (14 males; mean age, 72 years) who underwent emergency cyanoacrylate-lipiodol STAE at a single center in 2012-2023 for spontaneous rHCC. All 16 patients had subcapsular HCC and abundant hemoperitoneum. The technical success rate was 94% (15/16). Day 30 mortality was 19%; the three patients who died had severe hemodynamic instability at admission; one death was due to rebleeding. Liver enzyme levels returned to baseline by day 30. No rebleeding was recorded during the median follow-up of 454 days in the 10 patients who were alive with available data after day 30. Larger prospective studies with the collection of longer-term outcomes are needed to assess our results supporting the safety and effectiveness of cyanoacrylate-lipiodol STAE for rHCC. Randomized trials comparing this mixture to other embolic agents should be performed.

Ruptured Hepatocellular Carcinoma: What Do Interventional Radiologists Need to Know?

Rupture of HCC (rHCC) is a life-threatening complication of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and rHCC may lead to a high rate of peritoneal dissemination and affect survival negatively. Treatment for rHCC mainly includes emergency surgery, interventional therapies, and palliative treatment. However, the management of rHCC should be carefully evaluated. For patients with severe bleeding, who are not tolerant to open surgery, quick hemostatic methods such as rupture tissue ablation and TAE/TACE can be performed. We described clinical presentation, prognosis, complication, interventional management, and current evidence of rHCC from the perspective of interventional radiologists. Overall, our review summarized that interventional therapies are necessary for most patients with rHCC to achieve hemostasis, even in some patients with Child–Pugh C. Moreover, TAE/TACE followed by staged hepatectomy is a beneficial treatment for rHCC according to current clinical evidence. TAE/TACE is the first choice for most patients with rHCC, and appropriate interventional treatment may provide staged surgery opportunities for those who are not tolerant to emergency surgery to reach an ideal prognosis.

Ruptured Hepatocellular Carcinoma: What Do Interventional Radiologists Need to Know?

Rupture of HCC (rHCC) is a life-threatening complication of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and rHCC may lead to a high rate of peritoneal dissemination and affect survival negatively. Treatment for rHCC mainly includes emergency surgery, interventional therapies, and palliative treatment. However, the management of rHCC should be carefully evaluated. For patients with severe bleeding, who are not tolerant to open surgery, quick hemostatic methods such as rupture tissue ablation and TAE/TACE can be performed. We described clinical presentation, prognosis, complication, interventional management, and current evidence of rHCC from the perspective of interventional radiologists. Overall, our review summarized that interventional therapies are necessary for most patients with rHCC to achieve hemostasis, even in some patients with Child–Pugh C. Moreover, TAE/TACE followed by staged hepatectomy is a beneficial treatment for rHCC according to current clinical evidence. TAE/TACE is the first choice for most patients with rHCC, and appropriate interventional treatment may provide staged surgery opportunities for those who are not tolerant to emergency surgery to reach an ideal prognosis.

Development of a prognostic score for recommended transarterial chemoembolization candidates with spontaneous rupture of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Although transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) has been widely used for treating the spontaneous rupture of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), no existing model exists for predicting survival. The aim of this study was thus to develop and validate a nomogram for estimating the prognosis in patients with ruptured HCC upon undergoing TACE treatment.

METHODS

This study included 55 patients with spontaneously ruptured HCC who underwent TACE treatment between January 2015 and April 2019. The diagnosis of spontaneous HCC rupture was based on the disruption of the peritumoral liver capsule with surrounding fluid in the perihepatic region. The prognostic nomogram was constructed using the independent predictors assessed by the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

The median overall survival (OS) was 6.4 months, with 6-month and 1-year survival rates of 52.7% and 41.8%, respectively. In the univariate analysis, the size of the largest tumor, total bilirubin (TBIL) levels, and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels were associated with the OS of patients. Multivariate analysis suggested that TBIL levels (HR =0.358, P=0.036) and diameter of the largest tumor (HR =1.012, P=0.044) were independent prognostic factors for predicting the OS. Based on these variables, we developed and validated a nomogram for the risk stratification of HCC rupture after TACE treatment for individual patients. According to the nomogram risk assessment, we were able to evaluate the approximate 1- and 2-year survival rates based on patients' tumor diameter and TBIL level after TACE treatment of ruptured HCC. The concordance index for the OS prediction was 0.748 (95% CI: 0.691-0.805). This newly developed nomogram represents an intuitive tool for predicting the OS of patients with ruptured HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicated that TBIL levels and diameter of the largest tumor were independent prognostic factors for predicting the OS of ruptured HCC. This study may help maximize favorable TACE treatment outcomes.

Myosteatosis can Predict Unfavorable Outcomes in Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Treated With Hepatic Artery Infusion Chemotherapy and Anti-PD-1 Immunotherapy

Aim

To evaluate the feasibility of computed tomography (CT) - derived measurements of body composition parameters to predict the risk factor of non-objective response (non-OR) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing anti-PD-1 immunotherapy and hepatic artery infusion chemotherapy (immune-HAIC).

Methods

Patients with histologically confirmed HCC and treated with the immune-HAIC were retrospectively recruited between June 30, 2019, and July 31, 2021. CT-based estimations of body composition parameters were acquired from the baseline unenhanced abdominal CT images at the level of the third lumbar vertebra (L3) and were applied to develop models predicting the probability of OR. A myosteatosis nomogram was built using the multivariate logistic regression incorporating both myosteatosis measurements and clinical variables. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves assessed the performance of prediction models, including the area under the curve (AUC). The nomogram's performance was assessed by the calibration, discrimination, and decision curve analyses. Associations among predictors and gene mutations were also examined by correlation matrix analysis.

Results

Fifty-two patients were recruited to this study cohort, with 30 patients having a OR status after immune-HAIC treatment. Estimations of myosteatosis parameters, like SM-RA (skeletal muscle radiation attenuation), were significantly associated with the probability of predicting OR (P=0.007). The SM-RA combined nomogram model, including serum red blood cell, hemoglobin, creatinine, and the mean CT value of visceral fat (VFmean) improved the prediction probability for OR disease with an AUC of 0.713 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.95) than the clinical model nomogram with AUC of 0.62 using a 5-fold cross-validation methodology. Favorable clinical potentials were observed in the decision curve analysis.

Conclusions

The CT-based estimations of myosteatosis could be used as an indicator to predict a higher risk of transition to the Non-OR disease state in HCC patients treated with immune-HAIC therapy. This study demonstrated the therapeutic relevance of skeletal muscle composition assessments in the overall prediction of treatment response and prognosis in HCC patients.