Analysis of Risk Factors for Anastomotic Leakage After Laparoscopic Anterior Resection of Rectal Cancer and Construction of a Nomogram Prediction Model

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the risk factors of major complications after radical rectal cancer surgery

Purpose

The aim of this study was to establish a validated nomogram to predict risk factors for major post-operative complications in patients with rectal cancer (RC) by analyzing the factors contributing to major post-operative complications in RC patients.

Methods

We retrospectively collected baseline and surgical information on patients who underwent RC surgery between December 2012 and December 2022 at a single-center teaching hospital. The entire cohort was randomly divided into two subsets (60% of the data for development, 40% for validation). Independent risk factors for major post-operative complications were identified using multivariate logistic regression analyses, and predictive models were developed. Area under the curve (AUC) was calculated using receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) to assess predictive probability, calibration curves were plotted to compare the predicted probability of the nomogram with the actual probability, and the clinical efficacy of the nomogram was assessed using decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Our study included 3151 patients who underwent radical surgery for RC, including 1892 in the development set and 1259 in the validation set. Forty (2.1%) patients in the development set and 26 (2.1%) patients in the validation set experienced major post-operative complications. Through multivariate logistic regression analysis, age (p<0.01, OR=1.044, 95% CI=1.016-1.074), pre-operative albumin (p<0.01, OR=0.913, 95% CI=0.866-0.964), and open surgery (p<0.01, OR=2.461, 95% CI=1.284-4.761) were identified as independent risk factors for major post-operative complications in RC, and a nomogram prediction model was established. The AUC of the ROC plot for the development set was 0.7161 (95% Cl=0.6397-0.7924), and the AUC of the ROC plot for the validation set was 0.7191 (95% CI=0.6182-0.8199). The predicted probabilities in the calibration curves were highly consistent with the actual probabilities, which indicated that the prediction model had good predictive ability. The DCA also confirmed the good clinical performance of the nomogram.

Conclusion

In this study, a validated nomogram containing three predictors was created to identify risk factors for major complications after radical RC surgery. Due to its accuracy and convenience, it could contribute to personalized management of patients in the perioperative period.

Predictive factors associated with anastomotic leakage after resection of rectal cancer: a multicenter study with the Hiroshima Surgical study group of Clinical Oncology

PURPOSE

Several factors have been reported as risk factors for anastomotic leakage after resection of rectal cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors for anastomotic leakage, including nutritional and immunological indices, following rectal cancer resection.

METHODS

This study used a multicenter database of 803 patients from the Hiroshima Surgical study group of Clinical Oncology who underwent rectal resection with stapled anastomosis for rectal cancer between October 2016 and April 2020.

RESULTS

In total, 64 patients (8.0%) developed postoperative anastomotic leakage. Five factors were significantly associated with the development of anastomotic leakage after rectal cancer resection with stapled anastomosis: male sex, diabetes mellitus, C-reactive protein/albumin ratio ≥ 0.07, prognostic nutritional index < 40, and low anastomosis under peritoneal reflection. The incidence of anastomotic leakage was correlated with the number of risk factors. The novel predictive formula based on odds ratios in the multivariate analysis was useful for identifying patients at high risk for anastomotic leakage. Diverting ileostomy reduced the ratio of anastomotic leakage ≥ grade III after rectal cancer resection.

CONCLUSIONS

Male sex, diabetes mellitus, C-reactive protein/albumin ratio ≥ 0.07, prognostic nutritional index < 40, and low anastomosis under peritoneal reflection are possible risk factors for developing anastomotic leakage after rectal cancer resection with the stapled anastomosis. Patients at high risk of anastomotic leakage should be assessed for the potential benefits of diverting stoma.