Long-term cost and utility consequences of short-term clinically important deterioration in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: results from the TORCH study

Characterising hospitalisation risk for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations: Bedside and outpatient clinic assessments of easily measured variables

OBJECTIVE

To identify the characteristics of people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who require hospitalisation for exacerbations.

METHODS

People with COPD were recruited either during hospitalisation or from out-patient respiratory medicine clinics. Hospital admissions were tracked throughout the 5-months recruitment period. For participants who were admitted, hospital readmissions were tracked for at least 30 days following discharge. Participants were grouped as either needing; (i) no hospital admission during the study period (no admission; ø-A), (ii) one or more hospital admissions during the study period but no readmission within 30 days of discharge (no rapid readmission; ø-RR) or (iii) one or more hospital admissions with a readmission within 30 days of discharge (rapid readmission; RR).

RESULTS

Compared with the ø-A group (n=211), factors that independently increased the risk of ø-RR (n=146) and/or RR (n=57) group membership were being aged >60 years, identifying as an Indigenous person (relative risk ratio, 95% confidence interval 7.8 [1.8 to 34.0]) and the use of a support person or community service for activities of daily living (1.5 [1.0 to 2.4]. A body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 was protective.

CONCLUSIONS

Variables recorded at the bedside or in clinic provided information on hospitalisation risk.

Comparation of predictive value of CAT and change in CAT in the short term for future exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

PURPOSE

Our study aimed to compare the predictive value of the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) score at baseline and short-term change in CAT for future exacerbations in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients.

METHODS

This was a multicentre prospective study. Patients with COPD were recruited into the study and followed up for one year. CAT score and exacerbation in the previous year were collected at baseline. Change in CAT was defined as CAT score changing between baseline and the 6-month follow-up. Exacerbation was recorded during the one-year follow-up from 0^th to 12^th month.

RESULT

A total of 536 patients were enrolled for final analysis. The mean baseline CAT score was 14.5 ± 6.6 and the median (IQR) change in CAT was -2 (8). On Cox regression analysis, baseline CAT score, change in CAT and history of exacerbation were independent risk factors for exacerbation in the one-year follow-up. Compared with the r value of correlation between baseline CAT score and frequency of exacerbations during the one-year follow-up (r = 0.286, p < .001), that correlation between the change in CAT and frequency of exacerbations during follow-up was higher (r = 0.421, p < .001). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed that change in CAT had a better predictive capacity for future exacerbation than baseline CAT (0.789 versus 0.609, p = .001). The ROC showed that change in CAT also had a better predictive capacity for future exacerbation than exacerbation in the previous year (0.789 versus 0.689, p = .011).

CONCLUSION

The correlation between baseline CAT score and future exacerbation was weak, however, the correlation between change in CAT and future exacerbation was moderate. Change in CAT in the short term had a better predictive value for future exacerbations of COPD than baseline CAT and exacerbation in the previous year.

Clinically important deterioration: a composite tool for managing patients with COPD

Clinically important deterioration (CID) is a composite tool developed to measure COPD's progression. It is a promising concept that can improve treatment choices for COPD patients because it provides a more holistic assessment of their status in everyday clinical practice. The post hoc analysis of several trials that were important for improving COPD treatment provides increasing evidence of the importance of assessing CID. These retrospective evaluations suggest that dual bronchodilation should be preferred over a single bronchodilator if treatment aims to reduce a possible clinical deterioration of COPD. Should dual bronchodilation prove ineffective, evidence shows that triple therapy, including an inhaled corticosteroid, is effective in preventing CID, especially in the presence of high blood eosinophil counts. CID initially included changes in FEV₁ ≥100 mL from baseline, an increase in total SGRQ score ≥4 units, or a moderate/severe exacerbation. These thresholds were chosen arbitrarily because they were considered clinically relevant. Therefore, this multidimensional tool is being improved by including outcomes and thresholds that consider the peculiarities of the COPD population and the duration of the assessment. However, at present, studies that have assessed the impact of CID on COPD are almost all retrospective. Therefore, prospective studies need to be conducted that allow the complete validation of this instrument and better define the most effective components in assessing the risk of deterioration of COPD.

Clinically Important Deterioration Among Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Treated with Nebulized Glycopyrrolate: A Post Hoc Analysis of Pooled Data from Two Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Studies

Purpose

Using a composite endpoint, pooled data from two 12-week Phase III placebo-controlled trials (GOLDEN 3, NCT02347761; GOLDEN 4, NCT02347774) were analyzed to determine whether glycopyrrolate inhalation solution (25 mcg and 50 mcg) administered twice daily (BID) via the eFlow® Closed System nebulizer (GLY) reduced the risk of clinically important deterioration (CID) in patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD.

Methods

CID was defined as ≥100-mL decrease from baseline in post-bronchodilator trough forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), or ≥4-unit increase in baseline St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score, or moderate/severe exacerbation. The relative treatment effect of GLY versus placebo on the odds of CID (any and by component endpoints) was expressed as the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Subgroups categorized by age (<65/≥65 years), sex, smoking status (current/former), long-acting beta agonist (LABA) use, FEV1 (<50%/≥50%), and peak inspiratory flow rate (PIFR) (<60 L/min/≥60 L/min) were analyzed.

Results

Compared to placebo, GLY 25 mcg and 50 mcg BID over 12 weeks significantly reduced the risk of CID by 50% (OR: 0.50 [0.37-0.68]) and 40% (OR: 0.60 [0.44-0.80]), respectively. Subjects treated with GLY 25 mcg BID were 59% less likely to experience CID in FEV1 (OR: 0.41 [0.27-0.62]) and 48% less likely to perceive CID in health status (OR: 0.52 [0.37-0.73]). Statistically significant reductions were also observed at the higher dose. The incidence of moderate/severe exacerbations was low and comparable among the cohorts. GLY 25 mcg BID was significantly more effective than placebo (p<0.05) in preventing CID irrespective of age, smoking status, LABA use, COPD severity, or PIFR. Subjects <65 years (OR 0.45 [0.29-0.68]) and those with PIFR <60 L/min (OR 0.36 [0.20-0.67]) exhibited the largest benefit.

Conclusion

Nebulized GLY over 12 weeks significantly reduced the risk of CID and provided greater short-term stability in patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD.

Modified and simplified clinically important deterioration: multidimensional indices of short-term disease trajectory to predict future exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Various prediction indices based on the single time point observation have been proposed in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but little was known about disease trajectory as a predictor of future exacerbations. Our study explored the association between disease trajectory and future exacerbations, and validated the predictive value of the modified and simplified short-term clinically important deterioration (CID).

METHODS

This study was a multicenter, prospective observational study. Patients with COPD were recruited into our study and followed up for 18 months. The modified CID (CID-C) was defined as a decrease of 100 mL in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), or suffering exacerbations, or increase of 2 units in COPD Assessment Test (CAT) during the first 6 months follow-up. Simplified CID was defined when excluding CAT from the CID-C model.

RESULTS

A total of 127 patients were enrolled in our final analysis. Compared with patients without exacerbations during the period of the 6th to the 18th month, patients with exacerbations were more likely to have frequent short-term exacerbations in the first 6 months (2.14 versus 0.21, p < 0.001). The short-term exacerbations were the best predictor for future exacerbations [odds ratio (OR): 13.25; 95% confidence interval: 5.62-34.67; p < 0.001], followed by the history of exacerbation before study entry, short-term changes in FEV1 and CAT. CID-C and Simplified CID were both significantly associated with exacerbations (OR: 7.14 and 9.74, both p < 0.001). The receiver operating characteristic curves showed that the Simplified CID had slightly better predictive capacity for future exacerbation than CID-C (0.754 versus 0.695, p = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

Disease trajectory, including both the CID-C and the Simplified CID had significant predictive value for future exacerbations.The reviews of this paper are available via the supplemental material section.