The Relationship Between Morning Symptoms and the Risk of Future Exacerbations in COPD

The Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Which Symptom is Most Important to Monitor?

Background

GOLD 2023 defines an exacerbation of COPD (ECOPD) by a deterioration of breathlessness at rest (BaR), mucus and cough. The severity of an ECOPD is determined by the degree of BaR, ranging from 0 to 10. However, it is not known which symptom is the most important one to detect early of an ECOPD, and which symptom that predicts future ECOPDs best. Thus, the purpose of the present study was to find out which symptom is the most important one to monitor.

Methods

We analysed data on COPD symptoms from the telehealth study The eHealth Diary. Frequent exacerbators (n = 27) were asked to daily monitor BaR and breathlessness at physical activity (BaPA), mucus and cough, employing a digital pen and symptom scales (0-10). Twenty-seven patients with 105 ECOPDs were analysed. The association between symptom development and the occurrence of exacerbations was evaluated using the Andersen-Gill formulation of the Cox proportional hazards model for the analysis of recurrent time-to-event data with time-varying predictors.

Results

According to the criteria proposed by GOLD 2023, 42% ECOPDs were mild, 48% were moderate and 5% were severe, while 6% were undefinable. Mucus and cough improved over study time, while BaR and BaPA deteriorated. Mucus appeared earliest, which was the most prominent feature of the average exacerbation, and worsening of mucus increased the risk for a future ECOPD. There was a 58% increase in the risk of exacerbation per unit increase in mucus score.

Conclusion

This study suggests that mucus worsening is the most important COPD symptom to monitor to detect ECOPDs early and to predict future risk för ECOPDs. In the present study, we also noticed a pronounced difference between GOLD 2022 and 2023. Hence, GOLD 2023 defined the ECOPD severity much lower than GOLD 2022 did.

Development and Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model to Identify Acute Exacerbation of COPD and Its Severity for COPD Management in China (DETECT Study): A Multicenter, Observational, Cross-Sectional Study

Purpose

There is an unmet clinical need for an accurate and objective diagnostic tool for early detection of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). DETECT (NCT03556475) was a multicenter, observational, cross-sectional study aiming to develop and validate multivariable prediction models for AECOPD occurrence and severity in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China.

Patients and Methods

Patients aged ≥40 years with moderate/severe COPD, AECOPD, or no COPD were consecutively enrolled between April 22, 2020, and January 18, 2021, across seven study sites in China. Multivariable prediction models were constructed to identify AECOPD occurrence (primary outcome) and AECOPD severity (secondary outcome). Candidate variables were selected using a stepwise procedure, and the bootstrap method was used for internal model validation.

Results

Among 299 patients enrolled, 246 were included in the final analysis, of whom 30.1%, 40.7%, and 29.3% had COPD, AECOPD, or no COPD, respectively. Mean age was 64.1 years. Variables significantly associated with AECOPD occurrence (P<0.05) and severity (P<0.05) in the final models included COPD disease-related characteristics, as well as signs and symptoms. Based on cut-off values of 0.374 and 0.405 for primary and secondary models, respectively, the performance of the primary model constructed to identify AECOPD occurrence (AUC: 0.86; sensitivity: 0.84; specificity: 0.77), and of the secondary model for AECOPD severity (AUC: 0.81; sensitivity: 0.90; specificity: 0.73) indicated high diagnostic accuracy and clinical applicability.

Conclusion

By leveraging easy-to-collect patient and disease data, we developed identification tools that can be used for timely detection of AECOPD and its severity. These tools may help physicians diagnose AECOPD in a timely manner, before further disease progression and possible hospitalizations.