Effectiveness of Nationwide COPD Pay-for-Performance Program on COPD Exacerbations in Taiwan

Pay-for-performance in Taiwan: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the empirical literature

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to assess the impact of pay-for-performance (P4P) programmes on healthcare in Taiwan.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was performed using the PubMed, Medline, Embase, Cochrane review, Scopus, Web of Science and PsycINFO databases up to July 2023. Meta-analysis of the available outcomes was conducted using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

The search yielded 85 studies, of which 58 investigated the programme for diabetes mellitus (DM), eight looked at the programme for chronic kidney disease (CKD), and the remaining studies examined programmes for breast cancer, tuberculosis, schizophrenia and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The DM P4P programme was a cost-effective strategy associated with reduced hospitalisation and subsequent complications. The CKD P4P was associated with a lower risk of dialysis initiation. The P4P programme also improved outcomes in breast cancer, cure rates in tuberculosis, reduced admissions for schizophrenia and reduced acute exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The meta-analysis revealed that the P4P programme for DM (odds ratio [OR] = 0.59; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.48-0.73) and CKD (OR = 0.73; 95% CI = 0.67-0.81) significantly reduced mortality risk. However, participation rate in the DM P4P programme was only 19% in 2014.

CONCLUSIONS

P4P programmes in Taiwan improve quality of care. However, participation was voluntary and the participation rate was very low, raising the concern of selective enrolment of participants (i.e. 'cherry-picking' behaviour) by physicians. Future programme reforms should focus on well-designed features with the aim of reducing healthcare disparities.

Trend Analysis of Palliative Care Utilization in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease During Hospitalization from 2007 to 2018 in Taiwan

Purpose

Palliative care utilization among hospitalized patients with advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Taiwan remains low despite its costs making it eligible for reimbursement since 2009. Few studies have examined the trends of palliative care utilization. We analyzed the annual rate, associated factors, and timing of the inpatient palliative care utilization by hospitalized patients with COPD.

Patients and Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional observational study between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2018. Population-based claims data were extracted from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database to identify patients aged ≧40 years with COPD five years before the first instance of inpatient palliative care utilization.

Results

There were 24,502 patients with COPD receiving inpatient palliative care. Our results indicated that older age, concomitant chronic conditions-especially cancer-and severity of comorbidities were associated with a higher rate of palliative care utilization by hospitalized patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In our study, the proportion of hospitalized patients with COPD receiving inpatient palliative care and having a Charlson comorbidity index score of 1-2 was lower than that of patients with cancer and a Charlson comorbidity index score ≧3 during the 12-year study-observation period. In addition, approximately 50% of hospitalized patients with COPD received palliative care within 18 months after their initial admission for COPD during the study period. However, individuals with a CCI score of 1-2 exhibited a slower entry into palliative care, with nearly 50% initiating it within the first two years.

Conclusion

Inpatient palliative care utilization by hospitalized patients with advanced COPD remains low due to various causes. Our findings highlight that palliative care may be considered by professional care providers as routine care and as a way to manage problematic symptoms during hospitalization.

Prognostic Value of Pace Variability, a Novel 6MWT-Derived Feature, in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Purpose

The 6-minute walk test (6MWT) is often used to evaluate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients' functional capacity, with 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) and related measures being linked to mortality and hospitalizations. This study investigates the prognostic value of pace variability, a significant indicator in sports medicine, during the 6MWT for COPD patients.

Patients and Methods

We retrospectively screened consecutive COPD patients who had been prospectively enrolled in a pay-for-performance program from January 2019 to May 2020 to determine their eligibility. Patient characteristics, including demographics, exacerbation history, and 6MWT data, were analyzed to investigate their potential associations with prognosis. The primary outcome was a composite of adverse events, including overall mortality or hospitalizations due to exacerbations during a 1-year follow-up period. To analyze the 6MWT data, we divided it into three 2-minute epochs and calculated the average walk speed for each epoch. We defined pace variability as the difference between the maximum and minimum average speed in a single 2-minute epoch, divided by the average speed for the entire 6-minute walk test.

Results

A total of 163 patients with COPD were included in the study, and 19 of them (12%) experienced the composite adverse outcome. Multivariable logistic regression analyses revealed that two predictors were independently associated with the composite outcome: % predicted 6MWD <72 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 7.080; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.481-33.847) and pace variability ≥0.39 (aOR 9.444; 95% CI 2.689-33.170). Patients with either of these adverse prognostic features had significantly worse composite outcome-free survival, with both log-rank P values less than 0.005. Notably, COPD patients with both adverse features experienced an especially poor outcome after 1 year.

Conclusion

Patients with COPD who exhibited greater pace variability during the 6MWT had a significantly higher risk of overall mortality and COPD-related hospitalizations, indicating a worse prognosis.

Prognostic value of the post-exercise heart rate recovery and BHDE-index in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

BACKGROUND

The BODE index, consisting of body mass index (B), airflow obstruction (O), dyspnea score (D), and exercise capacity (E), can predict outcomes in COPD. However, when spirometry was restricted to prevent cross-infection such as COVID-19 pandemic, a modified index would be needed. Because cardiovascular dysfunction is associated with poor clinical outcomes in COPD, we conducted a novel BHDE-index by replacing spirometry with post-exercise heart rate recovery (HRR, H) and evaluated its predictive performance in this observational study.

METHODS

From January 2019 to December 2019, enrolled patients were analyzed as a derivation cohort for the setup of the model. This model was verified in another group of patients generated between January 2020 and December 2020, as the validation cohort. The post exercise HRR was defined as the difference of heart rate immediately after and 1 min after test cessation.

RESULTS

A total of 447 patients with COPD were enrolled. Patients with abnormal HRR were older, with more severe airway obstruction, severe airway symptoms, faster resting heart rate, shorter 6-min walk distance and higher frequency of severe acute exacerbation in previous one year. The prediction performance of the BHDE-index for one-year severe COPD exacerbation was similar to that of the BODE-index in both the derivation and validation groups [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.76 vs. 0.75, p = 0.369; AUROC 0.74 vs. 0.79, p = 0.05]. The prediction performance for 1 year mortality was also similar between BHDE-index and BODE-index in both cohorts [AUROC 0.80 vs. 0.77, p = 0.564; 0.76 vs. 0.70, p = 0.234]. Univariate and multivariate analyses also showed that the BHDE-index was an independent and important predictor of annual severe COPD exacerbation in the derivation and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The BHDE-index is a good and easy-to-perform prediction model for the risk of severe acute exacerbation and 1-year mortality in COPD wherever spirometry results are unavailable.

The impact of the duration of the integrated disease management program on COPD-related outcomes

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to assess the impact of the duration of the integrated disease management (IDM) program on COPD-related outcomes in real-world setting.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study among 3771 patients with COPD who had regularly completed 4 visits of IDM program within 1 year between April 1, 2017 and December 31, 2018. CAT score as the primary outcome used to investigate the association between IDM intervention duration and improvement in CAT score. Change in CAT score from baseline to each follow-up visit determined by using least-squares means (LSMeans) approach. The cut-off value of IDM duration for improving the CAT score was determined by the Youden index. Logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship between IDM intervention duration and MCID (the minimal clinically important difference) improvement in CAT score and the factor associated CAT improvement. Risks of COPD exacerbation events (COPD-related ED visit and COPD-related hospitalization) were estimated by using the cumulative incidence curve and Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULT

Among 3771 enrolled COPD patients, the majority of the study cohort were males (91.51%) and 42.7% of patients had CAT score of ≥ 10 at baseline. The mean of age was 71.47 years and the mean CAT at baseline were 10.49. The mean change from baseline in CAT score was - 0.87, - 1.19, - 1.23 and - 1.40 at 3-, 6-, 9- and 12 month follow-up (p < 0.0001 for all visits), respectively. Statistically significantly lower likelihood of achieving MCID improvement in CAT were observed at 3- and 6 month compared to 9 month (at 3 month: OR: 0.720, 95% CI 0.655-0.791; at 6 month: OR: 0.905, 95% CI 0.825-0.922). And only a modest increase likelihood of achieving MCID improvement in CAT at 12 month (OR: 1.097, 95% CI 1.001-1.201) compared with 9-month follow-up. In logistic regression on the entire cohort, CAT MCID improvement was most associated with baseline CAT scores ≥ 10, followed by frequent exacerbation in previous year (> 2 episodes/year), wheezing, and GOLD B or D at baseline. In baseline CAT ≥ 10 group, patients were more likely to achieve CAT MCID improvement and had greater decreases from baseline in CAT score observed at 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12 month compared with baseline CAT score < 10 group (all p < 0.0001). Moreover, in CAT ≥ 10 groups, patients who achieved CAT MCID improvement had lower risk of subsequent COPD exacerbation events (COPD-related ED visit: aHR: 1.196, 95% CI 0.985-1.453, p = 0.0713; COPD-related hospitalization: aHR: 1.529, 95% CI 1.215-1.924, p = 0.0003) when compared to those without.

CONCLUSION

This is the first real-world study indicating the association between COPD IDM intervention duration and COPD-related outcomes. From 3 to 12 month follow-up results showed that continued improvement over time in COPD-specific health status, particularly in patients with baseline CAT score of ≥ 10. Furthermore, a reduction of the risk of subsequent COPD exacerbations were observed in patients with CAT MCID improvement.

Risk Factors of Readmission Within 90 Days for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients with Frailty and Construction of an Early Warning Model

Objective

This study aimed to explore the risk factors for readmission within 90 d in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) patients with frailty and construct a clinical warning model.

Methods

COPD patients with frailty hospitalized in the Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine of Yixing Hospital, Affiliated to Jiangsu University, were retrospectively collected from January 1, 2020, to June 30, 2022. Patients were divided into readmission and control groups according to readmission within 90 d. The clinical data of the two groups were evaluated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify readmission risk factors within 90 d in COPD patients with frailty. Then, a risk quantitative early warning model was constructed. Finally, the model's prediction efficiency was evaluated, and external verification was carried out.

Results

The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that BMI, number of hospitalizations in the past year ≥ 2, CCI, REFS, and 4MGS were independent risk factors for readmission within 90 d in COPD patients with frailty. The early warning model for these patients was established as follows: Logit (p) = -1.896 + (-0.166 × BMI) + (0.969 × number of hospitalizations in the past year ≥ 2) + (0.265 × CCI) + (0.405 × REFS) + (-3.209 × 4MGS), and presented an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.744 [95% CI: 0.687-0.801]. The AUC of the external validation cohort was 0.737 (95% CI: 0.648-0.826), and the AUC of the LACE warning model was 0.657 (95% CI:0.552-0.762).

Conclusion

The BMI, number of hospitalizations in the past year ≥ 2, CCI, REFS, and 4MGS were independent risk factors for readmission within 90 d in COPD patients with frailty. The early warning model presented a moderate predictive value for assessing the risk of readmission within 90 d in these patients.

Associations Between Self-Management Behaviors and Psychological Resilience in Patients With COPD

BACKGROUND

COPD is a common but irreversible disease. Nevertheless, patients with COPD can maintain good quality of life through psychological resilience and effective self-management. However, limited studies have investigated the relationship between self-management behaviors and resilience in patients with COPD. Thus, the present study aimed to determine the factors associated with self-management behaviors and resilience among patients with COPD.

METHODS

A total of 100 subjects with COPD were recruited from a medical center in northern Taiwan from February 2020 to January 2021. Each subject completed a questionnaire based on the 20-item COPD Self-Management Scale and 25-item Resilience Scale through a face-to-face interview. A multiple linear regression model that controlled for sociodemographic and clinical factors was used to examine the relationship between self-management behaviors and resilience.

RESULTS

Analysis of our data indicated that differences in educational level, smoking status, religion, modified Medical Research Council dyspnea scale score, degree of COPD impacting wellbeing, number of COPD-related hospitalizations within 1 year, and self-reported comorbidities were associated with differences in self-management and resilience scores. The GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) D group had the lowest scores for self-management and resilience among GOLD groups A, B, C, and D. Self-management and resilience were positively correlated (r = 0.703, P < .001). In the linear regression model, a better self-management value was associated with a higher resilience score (β = 0.749, P < .001), whereas an increasing resilience score was also associated with a better self-management score (β = 0.461, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed that self-management and psychological resilience were positively correlated and associated in our linear regression model. Future work may focus on finding the causative relationship between self-management and resilience among patients with COPD.

Impact of integrated health care on elderly population: A systematic review of Taiwan's experience

BACKGROUND

Care fragmentation in the elderly population prompted the need for integrated health care systems. However, evidence regarding the impact of the integrated care system in Taiwan is unclear. We aimed to conduct a systematic review to evaluate the impact of Taiwan's integrated health care programs on geriatric population.

METHODS

We searched bibliographic databases MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, and Airiti Library for relevant publications throughout May 2022. Studies investigating the effectiveness of Taiwan's integrated care programs were included. We used the critical appraisal skills programme (CASP) checklist, to assess the risk of bias of included studies.

RESULTS

Thirty-four studies, with a total of 838,026 study subjects, were assessed. The systematic review on 11 subthemes (diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, hepatitis C virus, fractures, cancer, dementia, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mechanical ventilation, terminal illness, outpatients and community-dwelling patients), demonstrated that the implementation of integrated health care could not only provide benefits on survival, self-care ability, health quality, physical, and functional rehabilitation outcomes, but also significantly reduce medical utilization and expenditures.

CONCLUSION

The integrated health care system for multiple morbidities benefits the Taiwanese geriatric population in physical and functional outcomes. The thematic synthesis provides references for future rigorous clinical trials.

Explainable Machine Learning Model for Predicting First-Time Acute Exacerbation in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Background: The study developed accurate explainable machine learning (ML) models for predicting first-time acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, AECOPD) at an individual level. Methods: We conducted a retrospective case–control study. A total of 606 patients with COPD were screened for eligibility using registry data from the COPD Pay-for-Performance Program (COPD P4P program) database at Changhua Christian Hospital between January 2017 and December 2019. Recursive feature elimination technology was used to select the optimal subset of features for predicting the occurrence of AECOPD. We developed four ML models to predict first-time AECOPD, and the highest-performing model was applied. Finally, an explainable approach based on ML and the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and a local explanation method were used to evaluate the risk of AECOPD and to generate individual explanations of the model’s decisions. Results: The gradient boosting machine (GBM) and support vector machine (SVM) models exhibited superior discrimination ability (area under curve [AUC] = 0.833 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.745–0.921] and AUC = 0.836 [95% CI 0.757–0.915], respectively). The decision curve analysis indicated that the GBM model exhibited a higher net benefit in distinguishing patients at high risk for AECOPD when the threshold probability was <0.55. The COPD Assessment Test (CAT) and the symptom of wheezing were the two most important features and exhibited the highest SHAP values, followed by monocyte count and white blood cell (WBC) count, coughing, red blood cell (RBC) count, breathing rate, oral long-acting bronchodilator use, chronic pulmonary disease (CPD), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and others. Higher CAT score; monocyte, WBC, and RBC counts; BMI; diastolic blood pressure (DBP); neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; and eosinophil and lymphocyte counts were associated with AECOPD. The presence of symptoms (wheezing, dyspnea, coughing), chronic disease (CPD, congestive heart failure [CHF], sleep disorders, and pneumonia), and use of COPD medications (triple-therapy long-acting bronchodilators, short-acting bronchodilators, oral long-acting bronchodilators, and antibiotics) were also positively associated with AECOPD. A high breathing rate, heart rate, or systolic blood pressure and methylxanthine use were negatively correlated with AECOPD. Conclusions: The ML model was able to accurately assess the risk of AECOPD. The ML model combined with SHAP and the local explanation method were able to provide interpretable and visual explanations of individualized risk predictions, which may assist clinical physicians in understanding the effects of key features in the model and the model’s decision-making process.