Prediction of short term re-exacerbation in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Prognostic risk factors for moderate-to-severe exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic literature review

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. COPD exacerbations are associated with a worsening of lung function, increased disease burden, and mortality, and, therefore, preventing their occurrence is an important goal of COPD management. This review was conducted to identify the evidence base regarding risk factors and predictors of moderate-to-severe exacerbations in patients with COPD.

Methods

A literature review was performed in Embase, MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). Searches were conducted from January 2015 to July 2019. Eligible publications were peer-reviewed journal articles, published in English, that reported risk factors or predictors for the occurrence of moderate-to-severe exacerbations in adults age ≥ 40 years with a diagnosis of COPD.

Results

The literature review identified 5112 references, of which 113 publications (reporting results for 76 studies) met the eligibility criteria and were included in the review. Among the 76 studies included, 61 were observational and 15 were randomized controlled clinical trials. Exacerbation history was the strongest predictor of future exacerbations, with 34 studies reporting a significant association between history of exacerbations and risk of future moderate or severe exacerbations. Other significant risk factors identified in multiple studies included disease severity or bronchodilator reversibility (39 studies), comorbidities (34 studies), higher symptom burden (17 studies), and higher blood eosinophil count (16 studies).

Conclusions

This systematic literature review identified several demographic and clinical characteristics that predict the future risk of COPD exacerbations. Prior exacerbation history was confirmed as the most important predictor of future exacerbations. These prognostic factors may help clinicians identify patients at high risk of exacerbations, which are a major driver of the global burden of COPD, including morbidity and mortality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12931-022-02123-5.

Terms and Definitions Used to Describe Recurrence, Treatment Failure and Recovery of Acute Exacerbations of COPD: A Systematic Review of Observational Studies

Introduction

Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPDs) are important clinical events, with many patients experiencing multiple AECOPDs annually. The terms used in the literature to define recurring AECOPD events are inconsistent and may impact the ability to describe the true burden of these events. We undertook a systematic review to identify and summarize terms and definitions used in observational studies to describe AECOPD-related events occurring after an initial AECOPD (hereafter “subsequent AECOPD”).

Methods

PubMed was searched (2000–2019) for observational studies on subsequent AECOPD events using broad search strings for “COPD”, “exacerbation”, and “subsequent exacerbation events”. Only English-language studies were included. Small studies (n<50) and studies focusing on hospital re-admission only were excluded. Extracted data were analyzed descriptively to generate a narrative summary, using a thematic approach to group studies utilizing similar terms for subsequent AECOPD.

Results

Forty-seven studies were included. No single, distinct terms or definitions were used to define and identify multiple occurrences of AECOPDs, though most (46) studies used one or more of four clustered terms and definitions: reapse (n = 13), recurrence/re-exacerbation (n = 11), treatment failure (n = 12) and non-recovery/time to recovery (n = 16). Heterogeneity was observed within and between the four clusters with respect to study setting, starting point for observing subsequent AECOPDs, time frame to identify a subsequent AECOPD (except for studies using “time to recovery”), and basis for identifying a subsequent exacerbation.

Conclusion

Our review demonstrates that subsequent AECOPDs (including events such as relapse, recurrence/re-exacerbation, treatment failure, non-recovery/time to recovery) are ill-defined in the observational study literature, emphasizing the need to reach consensus on precise and objective definitions (for example, when one AECOPD ends and another begins). Use of standardized terminology and definitions may aid comparability between, and synthesis of, studies, thus improving the understanding of the natural history and burden of exacerbations in COPD patients.

Increased Serum Soluble Interleukin-2 Receptor Associated with Severity of Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Background

This study aimed to reveal the correlation between serum soluble interleukin-2 receptor (sIL-2R) and prognosis in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD).

Methods

A total of 315 patients diagnosed with AECOPD between December 2017 and June 2020 were enrolled. The patients were divided into the good and adverse groups based on the outcomes. An adverse outcome in COPD exacerbation was defined by the presence of at least one of the following: (1) death from a respiratory cause during hospitalisation or within 1 month of follow-up; (2) intensive care unit admission; (3) invasive or non-invasive mechanical ventilation; and (4) COPD-related emergency visit or readmission within 1 month of follow-up. A good outcome was considered as the absence of all the aforementioned issues. The patients underwent lung function (spirometry) assessment, and clinical and inflammatory profiles were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the correlation between serum sIL-2R concentration and other variables related to adverse outcomes of AECOPD. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to show the predictive ability of sIL-2R for adverse outcomes of AECOPD.

Results

We enrolled 315 patients, of whom 161 and 154 had good and adverse outcomes, respectively. We demonstrated that patients with adverse outcomes of AECOPD had a higher concentration of serum sIL-2R than patients with good outcomes (p < 0.001). The increased serum sIL-2R was positively associated with mMRC scores (p < 0.001), GLOD grades (p < 0.001), frequent exacerbation (p < 0.001), and smoking (p < 0.001) in patients with AECOPD and negatively correlated with pulmonary function (p < 0.001). An elevated sIL-2R level was a predictor for the risk of adverse outcomes in AECOPD with a cut-off value of 860 U/mL.

Conclusion

Increased serum sIL-2R concentration correlated with the risk of the adverse outcomes in AECOPD, indicating that it can be a predictive factor contributing to the diagnosis and assessment of adverse outcomes in patients with AECOPD.

Predicting Re-Exacerbation Timing and Understanding Prolonged Exacerbations: An Analysis of Patients with COPD in the ECLIPSE Cohort

PURPOSE

Understanding risk factors for an acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) is important for optimizing patient care. We re-analyzed data from the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study (NCT00292552) to identify factors predictive of re-exacerbations and associated with prolonged AECOPDs.

METHODS

Patients with COPD from ECLIPSE with moderate/severe AECOPDs were included. The end of the first exacerbation was the index date. Timing of re-exacerbation risk was assessed in patients with 180 days' post-index-date follow-up data. Factors predictive of early (1-90 days) vs late (91-180 days) vs no re-exacerbation were identified using a multivariable partial-proportional-odds-predictive model. Explanatory logistic-regression modeling identified factors associated with prolonged AECOPDs.

RESULTS

Of the 1,554 eligible patients from ECLIPSE, 1,420 had 180 days' follow-up data: more patients experienced early (30.9%) than late (18.7%) re-exacerbations; 50.4% had no re-exacerbation within 180 days. Lower post-bronchodilator FEV1 (P=0.0019), a higher number of moderate/severe exacerbations on/before index date (P<0.0001), higher St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire total score (P=0.0036), and season of index exacerbation (autumn vs winter, P=0.00164) were identified as predictors of early (vs late/none) re-exacerbation risk within 180 days. Similarly, these were all predictors of any (vs none) re-exacerbation risk within 180 days. Median moderate/severe AECOPD duration was 12 days; 22.7% of patients experienced a prolonged AECOPD. The odds of experiencing a prolonged AECOPD were greater for severe vs moderate AECOPDs (adjusted odds ratio=1.917, P=0.002) and lower for spring vs winter AECOPDs (adjusted odds ratio=0.578, P=0.017).

CONCLUSION

Prior exacerbation history, reduced lung function, poorer respiratory-related quality-of-life (greater disease burden), and season may help identify patients who will re-exacerbate within 90 days of an AECOPD. Severe AECOPDs and winter AECOPDs are likely to be prolonged and may require close monitoring.

Effect of PIFR-based optimised inhalation therapy in patients recovering from acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: protocol of a prospective, multicentre, superiority, randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Acute exacerbation (AE) is a major cause of disease progression and death in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), accounting for majority of medical expenditures. Correct inhalation therapy is effective in preventing AE attacks. However, inappropriate usage of dry powder inhaler, partially due to the unrecovered peak inhalation flow rate (PIFR) after acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD), results in increased risk of early treatment failure. Therefore, we designed a multicentre, randomised clinical trial to determine whether PIFR-based optimised inhalation therapy and training on inhaler usage at discharge could effectively reduce early treatment failure events.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A total of 416 hospitalised patients just recovering from AECOPD will be recruited and equally randomised into the PIFR group and the control group at a 1:1 ratio. The PIFR group will receive additive support before discharge, including choice of PIFR-guided inhaler and education on its usage. PIFR is measured by InCheck DIAL. In comparison, the control group will receive inhalers based on judgement of the respiratory physician. The primary outcome of the study is 30-day treatment failure rate. Other endpoints include PIFR, error rate of inhalation device use, satisfaction with inhalation devices, 30-day mortality, 90-day mortality, symptoms and quality of life of patients, and COPD-related treatment costs.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial has been approved by the Ethics Committee of Zhongshan Hospital of Fudan University (B2019-142). Participants will be screened and enrolled from hospitalised patients with AECOPD by clinicians, with no public advertisement for recruitment. After the trial has completed, the results will be reported to the public through conference presentations and peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04000958.

DECAF versus CURB-65 to Foresee Mortality among Patients Presenting with an Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Objective

To compare the precision of DECAF (Dyspnea, Eosinopenia, Consolidation, Acidemia, Atrial Fibrillation) and CURB-65 scoring systems in prediction of mortality among patients presenting with an acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Material and methods

A prospective, cross-sectional study was done at the Department of Pulmonology, Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Centre, Karachi, Pakistan over a period of seven months, May 2019 through November 2019. Previously diagnosed patients of COPD (for more than six months), of either sex, aged between 40 and 70 years admitted primarily with an exacerbation were included in the study by non-probability consecutive sampling. Patients with myocardial infarction, chronic kidney disease and malignancy were excluded. All relevant data including patients’ demography, history, examination, DECAF and CURB-65 scores and in-hospital mortality were recorded on a proforma and later analyzed by using SPSS, version 20.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn for comparison of accuracy of both scoring systems in prediction of in-hospital mortality (based on area under the curve (AUC)).

Results

There were 34 (29.8%) in-hospital mortalities while 80 (70.2%) survivals. AUC for DECAF score was 0.777 (0.673-0.881) and of CURB-65 was 0.715 (0.613-0.817) that reveals fair accuracy of the tests. Sensitivity of DECAF and CURB-65 scoring systems was almost similar i.e. 67.65% and 64.71% respectively, however DECAF was more specific than CURB-65 (86.25% compared to 68.75%, respectively).

Conclusion

The findings of our study suggest the use of a combination of scoring systems for prediction of in-hospital mortality in acute exacerbation of COPD based on appropriateness, access to facilities and clinician's preference.

Prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: systematic review and critical appraisal

OBJECTIVE

To map and assess prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed until November 2018 and hand searched references from eligible articles.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION

Studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model in COPD patients and focusing on any potential clinical outcome.

RESULTS

The systematic search yielded 228 eligible articles, describing the development of 408 prognostic models, the external validation of 38 models, and the validation of 20 prognostic models derived for diseases other than COPD. The 408 prognostic models were developed in three clinical settings: outpatients (n=239; 59%), patients admitted to hospital (n=155; 38%), and patients attending the emergency department (n=14; 3%). Among the 408 prognostic models, the most prevalent endpoints were mortality (n=209; 51%), risk for acute exacerbation of COPD (n=42; 10%), and risk for readmission after the index hospital admission (n=36; 9%). Overall, the most commonly used predictors were age (n=166; 41%), forced expiratory volume in one second (n=85; 21%), sex (n=74; 18%), body mass index (n=66; 16%), and smoking (n=65; 16%). Of the 408 prognostic models, 100 (25%) were internally validated and 91 (23%) examined the calibration of the developed model. For 286 (70%) models a model presentation was not available, and only 56 (14%) models were presented through the full equation. Model discrimination using the C statistic was available for 311 (76%) models. 38 models were externally validated, but in only 12 of these was the validation performed by a fully independent team. Only seven prognostic models with an overall low risk of bias according to PROBAST were identified. These models were ADO, B-AE-D, B-AE-D-C, extended ADO, updated ADO, updated BODE, and a model developed by Bertens et al. A meta-analysis of C statistics was performed for 12 prognostic models, and the summary estimates ranged from 0.611 to 0.769.

CONCLUSIONS

This study constitutes a detailed mapping and assessment of the prognostic models for outcome prediction in COPD patients. The findings indicate several methodological pitfalls in their development and a low rate of external validation. Future research should focus on the improvement of existing models through update and external validation, as well as the assessment of the safety, clinical effectiveness, and cost effectiveness of the application of these prognostic models in clinical practice through impact studies.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42017069247.

Development of a Nomogram to Predict the Risk of 30-Day Re-Exacerbation for Patients Hospitalized for Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Acute exacerbation (AE) is the main cause of increased disability and mortality for patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). Short-term re-exacerbation after discharge is common for in-hospital patients with AECOPD. Thus, we aimed to design a scoring system to effectively predict the 30-day re-exacerbation using simple and easily accessible variables. We retrospectively enrolled 686 cases hospitalized for AECOPD in two Chinese hospitals from 2005 to 2017. A variety of parameters were collected like demographics, clinical manifestations and treatments in stable and AE period. The optimal subset of covariates in the multivariate logistic analysis was identified by the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and was further used to develop a practical and reliable nomogram to predict the 30-day re-exacerbation. The efficacy of the nomogram was internally validated by concordance index (C-index) and a calibration plot. The incidence of 30-day re-exacerbation was 15.8%. Based on the smallest AIC, eight easily-accessible parameters were included in the nomogram, including sex, COPD assessment test (CAT) scores, AE with respiratory failure in the previous year, new purulent sputum, new cardiovascular events, combined antibiotic therapy, theophylline therapy for AE and ICU admission. Our nomogram revealed good discriminative ability with the C-index of 0.702. The calibration curve showed good agreement between nomogram-predicted probability and actual observation. Incorporating eight common variables, a nomogram for 30-day re-exacerbation after discharge with high predictive performance was constructed for patients with AECOPD, which was helpful in predicting individualized risk of re-exacerbation and offering individualized post-discharge support.

Predictive factors for exacerbation and re-exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: an extension of the Cox model to analyze data from the Swiss COPD cohort

Background

The Swiss COPD cohort was established in 2006 to collect data in a primary care setting. The objective of this study was to evaluate possible predictive factors for exacerbation and re-exacerbation.

Methods

In order to predict exacerbation until the next visit based on the knowledge of exacerbation since the last visit, a multistate model described by Therneau and Grambsch was performed.

Results

Data of 1,247 patients (60.4% males, 46.6% current smokers) were analyzed, 268 (21.5%) did not fulfill spirometric diagnostic criteria for COPD. Data of 748 patients (63% males, 44.1% current smokers) were available for model analysis. In order to predict exacerbation an extended Cox Model was performed. Mean FEV₁/FVC-ratio was 53.1% (±11.5), with a majority of patients in COPD GOLD classes 2 or 3. Hospitalization for any reason (HR1.7; P = 0.04) and pronounced dyspnea (HR for mMRC grade four 3.0; P < 0.001) at most recent visit as well as prescription of short-acting bronchodilators (HR1.7; P < 0.001), inhaled (HR1.2; P = 0.005) or systemic corticosteroids (HR1.8; P = 0.015) were significantly associated with exacerbation when having had no exacerbation at most recent visit. Higher FEV₁/FVC (HR0.9; P = 0.008) and higher FEV₁ values (HR0.9; P = 0.001) were protective. When already having had an exacerbation at the most recent visit, pronounced dyspnea (HR for mMRC grade 4 1.9; P = 0.026) and cerebrovascular insult (HR2.1; P = 0.003) were significantly associated with re-exacerbation. Physical activity (HR0.6; P = 0.031) and treatment with long-acting anticholinergics (HR0.7; P = 0.044) seemed to play a significant protective role. In a best subset model for exacerbation, higher FEV₁ significantly reduced and occurrence of sputum increased the probability of exacerbation. In the same model for re-exacerbation, coronary heart disease increased and hospitalization at most recent visit seemed to reduce the risk for re-exacerbation.

Conclusion

Our data confirmed well-established risk factors for exacerbations whilst analyzing their predictive association with exacerbation and re-exacerbation. This study confirmed the importance of spirometry in primary care, not only for diagnosis but also as a risk evaluation for possible future exacerbations.

Trial registration

Our study got approval by local ethical committee in 2006 (EK Nr. 170/06) and was registered retrospectively on ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02065921, 19^th of February 2014).

Clinical management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients with muscle dysfunction

Muscle dysfunction is frequently observed in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients, contributing to their exercise limitation and a worsening prognosis. The main factor leading to limb muscle dysfunction is deconditioning, whereas respiratory muscle dysfunction is mostly the result of pulmonary hyperinflation. However, both limb and respiratory muscles are also influenced by other negative factors, including smoking, systemic inflammation, nutritional abnormalities, exacerbations and some drugs. Limb muscle weakness is generally diagnosed through voluntary isometric maneuvers such as handgrip or quadriceps muscle contraction (dynamometry); while respiratory muscle loss of strength is usually recognized through a decrease in maximal static pressures measured at the mouth. Both types of measurements have validated reference values. Respiratory muscle strength can also be evaluated determining esophageal, gastric and transdiaphragmatic maximal pressures although there is a lack of widely accepted reference equations. Non-volitional maneuvers, obtained through electrical or magnetic stimulation, can be employed in patients unable to cooperate. Muscle endurance can also be assessed, generally using repeated submaximal maneuvers until exhaustion, but no validated reference values are available yet. The treatment of muscle dysfunction is multidimensional and includes improvement in lifestyle habits (smoking abstinence, healthy diet and a good level of physical activity, preferably outside), nutritional measures (diet supplements and occasionally, anabolic drugs), and different modalities of general and muscle training.

COPD exacerbation care bundle improves standard of care, length of stay, and readmission rates

INTRODUCTION

COPD is the third leading cause of death in the world. Utilizing care bundles during acute COPD exacerbations results in fewer complications and lower costs. Our aim was to construct a COPD exacerbation care bundle and evaluate the effects on patient care.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective analysis of 44 patients admitted with a COPD exacerbation to a single tertiary care facility. Primary outcomes included length of stay, readmission rates, and hospital costs. Secondary outcomes included patient education, pulmonologist follow-up, and timeliness of medication administration. Two cohorts were analyzed: those treated with an electronic COPD care bundle (cases; N=22) versus those treated without the care bundle (controls; N=22).

RESULTS

Mean length of stay (51.2 vs 101.1 hours in controls; P-value =0.001), 30-day readmission rates (9.1% vs 54.4% in controls; P-value =0.001), and 60-day readmission rates (22.7% vs 77% in controls; P-value =0.0003) decreased in the care bundle group. Ninety-day hospital costs had a significant difference in the care bundle group (US$7,652 vs US$19,954 in controls; P-value =0.044). Secondary outcomes included a 100% rate of COPD inhaler teaching (vs 27.3% in controls; P-value <0.001), 59.1% rate of pulmonologist follow-up after discharge (vs 18.2% in controls; P-value =0.005), and a mean reduction in time to steroid administration (7.0 hours; P-value =0.015) seen in the care bundle cases.

CONCLUSION

Our significant findings coupled with the recent success of standardized algorithms in managing COPD exacerbations stress the importance of enforcing clinical guidelines that can enhance patient care. We demonstrated improved care for COPD exacerbation patients during hospitalizations, thereby decreasing morbidity and the financial burden hospitals face in regard to this increasingly prevalent disease.

Predicting frequent COPD exacerbations using primary care data

PURPOSE

Acute COPD exacerbations account for much of the rising disability and costs associated with COPD, but data on predictive risk factors are limited. The goal of the current study was to develop a robust, clinically based model to predict frequent exacerbation risk.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients identified from the Optimum Patient Care Research Database (OPCRD) with a diagnostic code for COPD and a forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity ratio <0.7 were included in this historical follow-up study if they were ≥40 years old and had data encompassing the year before (predictor year) and year after (outcome year) study index date. The data set contained potential risk factors including demographic, clinical, and comorbid variables. Following univariable analysis, predictors of two or more exacerbations were fed into a stepwise multivariable logistic regression. Sensitivity analyses were conducted for subpopulations of patients without any asthma diagnosis ever and those with questionnaire data on symptoms and smoking pack-years. The full predictive model was validated against 1 year of prospective OPCRD data.

RESULTS

The full data set contained 16,565 patients (53% male, median age 70 years), including 9,393 patients without any recorded asthma and 3,713 patients with questionnaire data. The full model retained eleven variables that significantly predicted two or more exacerbations, of which the number of exacerbations in the preceding year had the strongest association; others included height, age, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, and several comorbid conditions. Significant predictors not previously identified included eosinophilia and COPD Assessment Test score. The predictive ability of the full model (C statistic 0.751) changed little when applied to the validation data set (n=2,713; C statistic 0.735). Results of the sensitivity analyses supported the main findings.

CONCLUSION

Patients at risk of exacerbation can be identified from routinely available, computerized primary care data. Further study is needed to validate the model in other patient populations.