Prediction of imipenem-resistant microorganisms among the nosocomial critically ill patients with Gram-negative bacilli septicemia: a simple risk score

State of the Management of Infections Caused by Multidrug-Resistant Gram-Negative Organisms

In the past decade, the prevalence of multidrug-resistant gram-negative (MDR-GN) bacterial infections has increased significantly, leading to higher rates of morbidity and mortality. Treating these infections poses numerous challenges, particularly when selecting appropriate empiric therapy for critically ill patients for whom the margin for error is low. Fortunately, the availability of new therapies has improved the treatment landscape, offering safer and more effective options. However, there remains a need to establish and implement optimal clinical and therapeutic approaches for managing these infections. Here, we review strategies for identifying patients at risk for MDR-GN infections, propose a framework for the choice of empiric and definitive treatment, and explore effective multidisciplinary approaches to managing patients in the hospital while ensuring a safe transition to outpatient settings.

Predictive Score for Carbapenem-Resistant Gram-Negative Bacilli Sepsis: Single-Center Prospective Cohort Study

A clinical-epidemiological score to predict CR-GNB sepsis to guide empirical antimicrobial therapy (EAT), using local data, persists as an unmet need. On the basis of a case-case-control design in a prospective cohort study, the predictive factors for CR-GNB sepsis were previously determined as prior infection, use of mechanical ventilation and carbapenem, and length of hospital stay. In this study, each factor was scored according to the logistic regression coefficients, and the ROC curve analysis determined its accuracy in predicting CR-GNB sepsis in the entire cohort. Among the total of 629 admissions followed by 7797 patient-days, 329 single or recurrent episodes of SIRS/sepsis were enrolled, from August 2015 to March 2017. At least one species of CR-GNB was identified as the etiology in 108 (33%) episodes, and 221 were classified as the control group. The cutoff point of ≥3 (maximum of 4) had the best sensitivity/specificity, while ≤1 showed excellent sensitivity to exclude CR-GNB sepsis. The area under the curve was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.76-0.85) and the number needed to treat was 2.0. The score may improve CR-GNB coverage and spare polymyxins with 22% (95% CI: 17-28%) adequacy rate change. The score has a good ability to predict CR-GNB sepsis and to guide EAT in the future.

Bloodstream Infections Caused by Carbapenem-Resistant Pathogens in Intensive Care Units: Risk Factors Analysis and Proposal of a Prognostic Score

Considering the growing prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (CR-GNB) bloodstream infection (BSI) in intensive care units (ICUs), the identification of specific risk factors and the development of a predictive model allowing for the early identification of patients at risk for CR-Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii or Pseudomonas aeruginosa are essential. In this retrospective case–control study including all consecutive patients showing an episode of BSI in the ICUs of a university hospital in Italy in the period January–December 2016, patients with blood culture positive for CR-GNB pathogens and for any other bacteria were compared. A total of 106 patients and 158 episodes of BSI were identified. CR-GNBs induced BSI in 49 patients (46%) and 58 episodes (37%). Prognosis score and disease severity at admission, parenteral nutrition, cardiovascular surgery prior to admission to ICU, the presence of sepsis and septic shock, ventilation-associated pneumonia and colonization of the urinary or intestinal tract were statistically significant in the univariate analysis. The duration of ventilation and mortality at 28 days were significantly higher among CR-GNB cases. The prognostic model based on age, presence of sepsis, previous cardiovascular surgery, SAPS II, rectal colonization and invasive respiratory infection from the same pathogen showed a C-index of 89.6%. The identified risk factors are in line with the international literature. The proposal prognostic model seems easy to use and shows excellent performance but requires further studies to be validated.

Association between Timing of Colonization and Risk of Developing Klebsiella pneumoniae Carbapenemase-Producing K. pneumoniae Infection in Hospitalized Patients

Colonization by KPC-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae (KPC-Kp) is associated with the risk of developing KPC-Kp infection. The impact of the time elapsed since a patient becomes colonized on this risk is not well known. An observational, prospective, longitudinal cohort study of colonized patients undergoing active rectal culture screening to rule out KPC-Kp colonization (July 2012 to November 2017). Patients with a positive culture at inclusion (colonized at start of follow-up) and those with a negative culture at inclusion who became colonized within 90 days (colonized during follow-up) were included in the analysis. CART analysis was used to dichotomize variables according to their association with infection. Kaplan–Meier infection-free survival curves and the log-rank test were used for group comparisons. Logistic regression was used to identify variables associated with KPC-Kp infection. Among 1310 patients included, 166 were colonized at the end of follow-up. Forty-seven out of 118 patients colonized at start of follow-up developed infection (39.8%) versus 31 out of 48 patients colonized during follow-up (64.6%; P = 0.006). Variables associated with KPC-Kp infection in the logistic regression analysis were: colonization detection during follow-up (OR, 2.74; 95% CI, 1.07 to 7.04; P = 0.03), Giannella risk score (OR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.32 to 1.73; P < 0.001), high-risk ward (OR, 4.77; 95% CI, 1.61 to 14.10; P = 0.005) and urological manipulation after admission (OR, 3.69; 95% CI, 1.08 to 12.60; P = 0.04). In 25 out of 31 patients (80.6%) colonized during follow-up who developed KPC-Kp infection, infection appeared within 15 days after colonization. The risk of KPC-Kp infection was higher when colonization is recently acquired during hospitalization. In this prospective study, we concluded that the timing of colonization was a factor to assess when considering empirical treatment for suspected KPC-Kp infection and prophylaxis or infection control.

IMPORTANCE In this study, it was confirmed that patients who became colonized during hospitalization had a higher risk of developing KPC-Kp infection than hospitalized patients who were already colonized at the start of follow-up. Besides, the risk of infection in the group of patients who became colonized during follow-up was greater in the first weeks immediately after colonization was confirmed. Our findings support the need for designing preventive strategies for patients at the highest risk of infection development, including those admitted in high-risk hospital wards and those undergoing urological procedures.

Derivation and Validation of a Predictive Scoring Model of Infections Due to Acinetobacter baumannii in Patients with Hospital Acquired Pneumonia by Gram-Negative Bacilli

Background

The prognosis of ABA-HAP patients is very poor. This study aimed to develop a scoring model to predict ABA-HAP in patients with GNB-HAP.

Methods

A single center retrospective cohort study was performed among patients with HAP caused by GNB in our hospital during January 2019 to June 2019 (the derivation cohort, DC). The variables were assessed on the day when qualified respiratory specimens were obtained. A prediction score was formulated by using independent risk factors obtained from logistic regression analysis. It was prospectively validated with a subsequent cohort of GNB-HAP patients admitted to our hospital during July 2019 to Dec 2019 (the validation cohort, VC).

Results

The final logistic regression model of DC included the following variables: transferred from other hospitals (3 points); blood purification (3 points); risk for aspiration (4 points); immunocompromised (3 points); pulmonary interstitial fibrosis (3 points); pleural effusion (1 points); heart failure (3 points); encephalitis (5 points); increased monocyte count (2 points); and increased neutrophils count (2 points). The AUROC of the scoring model was 0.845 (95% CI, 0.796 ~ 0.895) in DC and 0.807 (95% CI, 0.759 ~ 0.856) in VC. The scoring model clearly differentiated the low-risk patients (the score < 8 points), moderate-risk patients (8 ≤ the score < 12 points) and high-risk patients (the score ≥ 12 points), both in DC (P < 0.001) and in VC (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

This simple scoring model could predict ABA-HAP with high predictive value and help clinicians to choose appropriate empirical antibiotic therapy.

Risk stratification for multidrug-resistant Gram-negative infections in ICU patients

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Antimicrobial resistance among Gram-negative microorganisms has alarmingly increased in the past 10 years worldwide. Infections caused by these microorganisms are difficult to treat, especially in critically ill patients.The present review examines how to accurately predict which patients carry a greater risk of colonization or infection on which to base the timely choice of an effective empirical antibiotic treatment regimen and avoid antibiotic overuse.

RECENT FINDINGS

There are many risk factors for acquiring one of many multidrug-resistant Gram-negative microorganisms (MDR-GN); however, scores anticipating colonization, infection among those colonized, or mortality among those infected have a variable accuracy. Accuracy of scores anticipating colonization is low. Scores predicting infections among colonized patients are, in general, better, and ICU patients infected with MDR-GN have a worse prognosis than those infected by non-resistant microorganisms. Scores are, in general, better at excluding patients.

SUMMARY

Despite these limitations, scores continue to gain popularity including those by Giannella, Tumbarello, Johnson, or the scores INCREMENT carbapenem-producing Enterobacteriaceae score, Cano, Tartof, or CarbaSCORE.

Extensively drug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii and Proteeae association in a Romanian intensive care unit: risk factors for acquisition

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors for extensively drug-resistant (XDR) Acinetobacter baumannii (AB) and XDR Proteeae association in the largest intensive care unit (ICU) in Western Romania.

Materials and methods

This retrospective case-controlled study was conducted between January 2016 and December 2016 in the ICU of the “Pius Brînzeu” County Emergency Clinical Hospital of Timi oara. Data were collected, in strict confidentiality, from the electronic database of the Microbiology Laboratory and the hospital’s electronic medical records. Risk factors were ș investigated by logistic regression. Independent variables with P≤0.05 and OR >1 (95% CI >1) in the univariate analysis were entered into multivariate sequenced analysis.

Findings

The incidence density of coinfection with XDR AB and XDR Proteeae was 5.31 cases per 1,000 patient-days. Independent risk factors for the association of XDR AB and XDR Proteeae were represented by the presence of tracheostomy and naso-/orogastric nutrition ≥ 8 days. In addition, pressure ulcers were independent predictive factors for infections with all three infection types. Previous antibiotic therapy was an independent risk factor for the acquisition of XDR-AB strains, alone or in association, while the prolonged hospitalization in the ICU, blood transfusion, and hemodialysis appear as independent risk factors for single infections.

Conclusion

This association of XDR AB and XDR Proteeae may well not be limited to our hospital or our geographical area.