Predictive Nomogram for the Prediction of Early Recurrence of Colorectal Cancer

Construction and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the overall survival of colorectal cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a frequent cancer worldwide with varied survival outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop a nomogram model to predict the overall survival (OS) of CRC patients after surgery.

DESIGN

This is a retrospective study.

SETTING

This study was conducted from 2015 to 2016 in a single tertiary center for CRC.

PATIENTS

CRC patients who underwent surgery between 2015 and 2016 were enrolled and randomly assigned into the training (n = 480) and validation (n = 206) groups. The risk score of each subject was calculated based on the nomogram. All participants were categorized into two subgroups according to the median value of the score.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The clinical characteristics of all patients were collected, significant prognostic variables were determined by univariate analysis. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was applied for variable selection. The tuning parameter (λ) for LASSO regression was determined by cross-validation. Independent prognostic variables determined by multivariable analysis were used to establish the nomogram. The predictive capacity of the model was assessed by risk group stratification.

RESULTS

Infiltration depth, macroscopic classification, BRAF, carbohydrate antigen 19 - 9 (CA-199) levels, N stage, M stage, TNM stage, carcinoembryonic antigen levels, number of positive lymph nodes, vascular tumor thrombus, and lymph node metastasis were independent prognostic factors. The nomogram established based on these factors exhibited good discriminatory capacity. The concordance indices for the training and validation groups were 0.796 and 0.786, respectively. The calibration curve suggested favorable agreement between predictions and observations. Moreover, the OS of different risk subgroups was significantly different.

LIMITATIONS

The limitations of this work included small sample size and single-center design. Also, some prognostic factors could not be included due to the retrospective design.

CONCLUSIONS

A prognostic nomogram for predicting the OS of CRC patients after surgery was developed, which might be helpful for evaluating the prognosis of CRC patients.

Recurrence After Colectomy for Locally Advanced Colon Cancer: Experience from a Developing Country

Risk factors for disease recurrence following curative resection for locally advanced colon cancer (LACC) remain unclear as conflicting results have been reported in the literature. The aim of this study was to examine these factors in the setting of developing country's health care system affected by limited accessibility to the multimodal cancer treatment. Patients who had undergone curative colon resection for LACC between 2004 and 2018 were included. Data were obtained from a prospectively maintained database. Factors associated with disease recurrence, types of recurrence and recurrence-free survival were studied. A total of 118 patients with LACC were operated within the study period. Median follow-up was 36 (2-147) months. Adjuvant therapy was used in 41 (34.7%) patients and 62 (52.5%) were diagnosed with recurrence. In the multivariable analysis, disease recurrence was associated with tumor and nodal stages, as well as with the lymph node yield. Local recurrence, distant metastases, and peritoneal carcinomatosis were observed in 8 (6.8%), 30 (25.4%), and 24 (20.3%) patients, respectively. Early recurrence was diagnosed in 27 (22.9%) cases with peritoneal carcinomatosis being its most common type. Preoperative serum CA 19-9 levels, tumor, and nodal stages were linked to recurrence-free survival in the univariable analysis. Only tumor stage remained such in the multivariable model. Our findings suggest that lymph node yield, tumor, and nodal stages are associated with recurrence following curative resection for LACC.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13193-022-01672-x.

Evaluation of Inflammatory Scores in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients Undergoing Transarterial Radioembolization

PURPOSE

To evaluate the correlation of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), aspartate aminotransferase-to-lymphocyte ratio (ALRI), systemic inflammation index (SII), and lymphocyte count to oncologic outcomes in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients undergoing transarterial radioembolization (TARE).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All patients undergoing TARE for mCRC were retrospectively reviewed at a single academic institution. A receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was performed using a landmark survival point of 12 months, with an area under the curve (AUC) calculated. A cutoff point was determined by Youden's index and used to separate patients for OS and PFS analysis. Cox proportional-hazards models which included pertinent clinical factors were also created to evaluate PFS and OS.

RESULTS

In total, 41 patients who underwent 66 TARE treatments were included. A correlation was seen between post-treatment ALRI < 45 (HR: 0.38 (95%CI: 0.17-0.86), p = 0.02) and PFS. Patients with a pretreatment ALRI score < 20 had a significantly longer OS (HR: 0.49 (95%CI: 0.19-0.88), p = 0.02) as did those with a post-treatment lymphocyte count > 1.1 10⁹/L (HR: 0.27 (95%CI: 0.11-0.68), p = 0.005). In multivariate analysis of PFS, post-treatment lymphocyte count (HR: 8.46 (95%CI: 1.14-62.89), p = 0.044) was the only significantly associated inflammatory marker and presence of extrahepatic disease (HR:8.46 (95%CI: 1.14-62.89, p = 0.044) also correlated. Multivariate analysis of OS showed that pretreatment PLR (HR:1.01 (95%CI:1.-1.03), p = 0.02) and post-treatment NLR (HR:0.33 (95%CI:0.14-0.76), p = 0.009), PLR (HR:0.98 (95%CI:0.97-1), p = 0.046), SII (HR:1.04 (95%CI:1.01-1.08), p = 0.014), and lymphocyte count (HR:0.07 (95%CI:0.01-0.16), p = 0.003) were significantly associated.

CONCLUSION

Inflammatory markers may be associated with OS and PFS in mCRC patients undergoing TARE.