Nomogram Prediction of Short-Term Outcome After Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Development of a predictive nomogram for 28-day mortality risk in non-traumatic or post-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage patients

OBJECTIVE

Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is associated with high rates of mortality and permanent disability. At present, there are few definite clinical tools to predict prognosis in SAH patients. The current study aims to develop and assess a predictive nomogram model for estimating the 28-day mortality risk in both non-traumatic or post-traumatic SAH patients.

METHODS

The MIMIC-III database was searched to select patients with SAH based on ICD-9 codes. Patients were separated into non-traumatic and post-traumatic SAH groups. Using LASSO regression analysis, we identified independent risk factors associated with 28-day mortality and incorporated them into nomogram models. The performance of each nomogram was assessed by calculating various metrics, including the area under the curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

The study included 999 patients with SAH, with 631 in the non-traumatic group and 368 in the post-traumatic group. Logistic regression analysis revealed critical independent risk factors for 28-day mortality in non-traumatic SAH patients, including gender, age, glucose, platelet, sodium, BUN, WBC, PTT, urine output, SpO2, and heart rate and age, glucose, PTT, urine output, and body temperature for post-traumatic SAH patients. The prognostic nomograms outperformed the commonly used SAPSII and APSIII systems, as evidenced by superior AUC, NRI, IDI, and DCA results.

CONCLUSION

The study identified independent risk factors associated with the 28-day mortality risk and developed predictive nomogram models for both non-traumatic and post-traumatic SAH patients. The nomogram holds promise in guiding prognosis improvement strategies for patients with SAH.

Radiomics features from perihematomal edema for prediction of prognosis in the patients with basal ganglia hemorrhage

Objective

We developed and validated a clinical-radiomics nomogram to predict the prognosis of basal ganglia hemorrhage patients.

Methods

Retrospective analyses were conducted in 197 patients with basal ganglia hemorrhage (training cohort: n = 136, test cohort: n = 61) who were admitted to The First Affiliated Hospital of Shandong First Medical University (Shandong Provincial Qianfoshan Hospital) and underwent computed tomography (CT) scan. According to different prognoses, patients with basal ganglia hemorrhage were divided into two groups. Independent clinical risk factors were derived with univariate and multivariate regression analysis. Radiomics signatures were obtained using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. A radiomics score (Rad-score) was generated by 12 radiomics signatures of perihematomal edema (PHE) from CT images that were correlated with the prognosis of basal ganglia hemorrhage patients. A clinical-radiomics nomogram was conducted by combing the Rad-score and clinical risk factors using logistic regression analysis. The prediction performance of the nomogram was tested in the training cohort and verified in the test cohort.

Results

The clinical model conducted by four clinical risk factors and 12 radiomcis features were used to establish the Rad-score. The clinical-radiomics nomogram outperformed the clinical model in the training cohort [area under the curve (AUC), 0.92 vs. 0.85] and the test cohort (AUC, 0.91 vs 0.85). The clinical-radiomics nomogram showed good calibration and clinical benefit in both the training and test cohorts.

Conclusion

Radiomics features of PHE in patients with basal ganglia hemorrhage could contribute to the outcome prediction. The clinical-radiomics nomogram may help first-line clinicians to make individual clinical treatment decisions for patients with basal ganglia hemorrhage.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the 30-day mortality risk of patients with intracerebral hemorrhage

Background

Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is a stroke syndrome with an unfavorable prognosis. Currently, there is no comprehensive clinical indicator for mortality prediction of ICH patients. The purpose of our study was to construct and evaluate a nomogram for predicting the 30-day mortality risk of ICH patients.

Methods

ICH patients were extracted from the MIMIC-III database according to the ICD-9 code and randomly divided into training and verification cohorts. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method and multivariate logistic regression were applied to determine independent risk factors. These risk factors were used to construct a nomogram model for predicting the 30-day mortality risk of ICH patients. The nomogram was verified by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

A total of 890 ICH patients were included in the study. Logistic regression analysis revealed that age (OR = 1.05, P < 0.001), Glasgow Coma Scale score (OR = 0.91, P < 0.001), creatinine (OR = 1.30, P < 0.001), white blood cell count (OR = 1.10, P < 0.001), temperature (OR = 1.73, P < 0.001), glucose (OR = 1.01, P < 0.001), urine output (OR = 1.00, P = 0.020), and bleeding volume (OR = 1.02, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for 30-day mortality of ICH patients. The calibration curve indicated that the nomogram was well calibrated. When predicting the 30-day mortality risk, the nomogram exhibited good discrimination in the training and validation cohorts (C-index: 0.782 and 0.778, respectively). The AUCs were 0.778, 0.733, and 0.728 for the nomogram, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII), and Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS), respectively, in the validation cohort. The IDI and NRI calculations and DCA analysis revealed that the nomogram model had a greater net benefit than the SAPSII and OASIS scoring systems.

Conclusion

This study identified independent risk factors for 30-day mortality of ICH patients and constructed a predictive nomogram model, which may help to improve the prognosis of ICH patients.