Prevalence and Risk Factors of Abnormal Carotid Artery in Young Adults without Overt Cardiovascular Disease

Establishment and validation of prediction model for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in patients with hyperuricemia

OBJECTIVE

To construct a risk prediction model for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in patients with hyperuricemia.

METHODS

Data in this study were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (2007-2010). Participants from Huashan Hospital were included as an external validation. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the relevant factors of ASCVD in patients with hyperuricemia. The discriminability of the model was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) statistic of the receiver operating characteristic curve. Hosmer-Lemeshow test, correction curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the model.

RESULTS

A total of 389 patients collected from the NHANES were included in the final analysis. Logistic regression analysis showed that age, creatinine (Cr), glucose (Glu), serum uric acid (SUA), and history of gout were predictive factors for ASCVD in hyperuricemia (HUA) patients. These predictive factors were used to construct a nomogram. And 157 patients from NHANES were in the internal validation group and 136 patients from Huashan Hospital were in the external validation group. The AUC values of the three groups were 0.943, 0.735, and 0.664. The p values of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were .568, .600, and .763. The calibration curve showed consistency between the nomogram and the actual observed values. The DCA curve indicated that the model has good clinical practicality.

CONCLUSION

This study constructed the ASCVD risk prediction model for HUA patients, which is beneficial for medical staff to detect high-risk populations of ASCVD in the early stage.

National and Provincial-Level Prevalence and Risk Factors of Carotid Atherosclerosis in Chinese Adults

Importance

Epidemiologic studies on carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) based on nationwide ultrasonography measurements can contribute to understanding the future risk of cardiovascular diseases and identifying high-risk populations, thereby proposing more targeted prevention and treatment measures.

Objectives

To estimate the prevalence of CAS within the general population of China and to investigate its distribution among populations with potential risk factors and variation across diverse geographic regions.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This multicenter, population-based cross-sectional study used China's largest health check-up chain database to study 10 733 975 individuals aged 20 years or older from all 31 provinces in China who underwent check-ups from January 1, 2017, to June 30, 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Carotid atherosclerosis was assessed and graded using ultrasonography as increased carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), carotid plaque (CP), and carotid stenosis (CS). The overall and stratified prevalences were estimated among the general population and various subpopulations based on demographic characteristics, geographic regions, and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Mixed-effects regression models were used to analyze the risk factors for CAS.

Results

Among 10 733 975 Chinese participants (mean [SD] age, 47.7 [13.4] years; 5 861 566 [54.6%] male), the estimated prevalences were 26.2% (95% CI, 25.0%-27.4%) for increased cIMT, 21.0% (95% CI, 19.8%-22.2%) for CP, and 0.56% (95% CI, 0.36%-0.76%) for CS. The prevalence of all CAS grades was higher among older adults (eg, increased cIMT: aged ≥80 years, 92.7%; 95% CI, 92.2%-93.3%), male participants (29.6%; 95% CI, 28.4%-30.7%), those residing in northern China (31.0%; 95% CI, 29.1%-32.9%), and those who had comorbid conditions, such as hypertension (50.8%; 95% CI, 49.7%-51.9%), diabetes (59.0%; 95% CI, 57.8%-60.1%), dyslipidemia (32.1%; 95% CI, 30.8%-33.3%), and metabolic syndrome (31.0%; 95% CI, 29.1%-32.9%). Most cardiovascular disease risk factors were independent risk factors for all CAS stages (eg, hypertension: 1.60 [95% CI, 1.60-1.61] for increased cIMT, 1.62 [95% CI, 1.62-1.63] for CP, and 1.48 [95% CI, 1.45-1.51] for CS). Moreover, the magnitude of the association between several cardiovascular disease risk factors and increased cIMT and CP differed between the sexes and geographic regions.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that nearly one-quarter of Chinese adults have increased cIMT or CP. The burden of this disease is unevenly distributed across geographic regions and subpopulations and may require different levels of local planning, support, and management. Addressing these disparities is crucial for effectively preventing and managing cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in China.