Prognostic Nomograms for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Curative Hepatectomy, with a Focus on Recurrence Timing and Post-Recurrence Management

Anatomic versus non-anatomic liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma-A European multicentre cohort study in cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing in the western world over the past decades. As liver resection (LR) represents one of the most efficient treatment options, advantages of anatomic (ALR) versus non-anatomic liver resection (NALR) show a lack of consistent evidence. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate complications and survival rates after both resection types.

METHODS

This is a multicentre cohort study using retrospectively and prospectively collected data. We included all patients undergoing LR for HCC between 2009 and 2020 from three specialised centres in Switzerland and Germany. Complication and survival rates after ALR versus NALR were analysed using uni- and multivariate Cox regression models.

RESULTS

Two hundred and ninety-eight patients were included. Median follow-up time was 52.76 months. 164/298 patients (55%) underwent ALR. Significantly more patients with cirrhosis received NALR (n = 94/134; p < 0.001). Complications according to the Clavien Dindo classification were significantly more frequent in the NALR group (p < 0.001). Liver failure occurred in 13% after ALR versus 8% after NALR (p < 0.215). Uni- and multivariate cox regression models showed no significant differences between the groups for recurrence free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). Furthermore, cirrhosis had no significant impact on OS and RFS.

CONCLUSION

No significant differences on RFS and OS rates could be observed. Post-operative complications were significantly less frequent in the ALR group while liver specific complications were comparable between both groups. Subgroup analysis showed no significant influence of cirrhosis on the post-operative outcome of these patients.

Clinical-Radiological Characteristic for Predicting Ultra-Early Recurrence After Liver Resection in Solitary Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients

Objective

This study aims to identify independent risk factors for ultra-early recurrence in patients with early solitary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and develop an individualized predictive nomogram for ultra-early recurrence.

Materials and Methods

A total of 332 patients with early solitary HCC who underwent curative liver resection at our hospital from January 2015 to May 2021 were included in this study. Based on the patients' recurrence status at 6 months, they were divided into the non-ultra-early recurrence group and the ultra-early recurrence group. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to construct the nomogram, and internal validation of its performance was performed using calibration plots with bootstrapping.

Results

Among the 332 patients with early solitary HCC, 39 (11.7%) experienced ultra-early recurrence. Tumor morphology, age > 46 years, AFP > 332.4 ng/mL, GGT > 51.2 U/L, ALP > 126 U/L, PT > 12.8 s, and satellite nodules were identified as independent prognostic factors for ultra-early recurrence in patients with early solitary HCC and were incorporated into the final predictive nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram and bootstrap resampling were 0.842 and 0.815, respectively. The calibration plot demonstrated good agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities of ultra-early recurrence, and DCA indicated the favorable clinical utility of the nomogram. Additionally, AFP > 332.4 ng/mL, AST > 35 U/L, GGT > 51.2 U/L, ALP > 126 U/L, tumor morphology, tumor size, satellite nodules, and intratumoral hemorrhage were identified as risk factors for overall survival in patients with early solitary HCC.

Conclusion

Our study establishes a nomogram for predicting the postoperative ultra-early recurrence status in patients with early solitary HCC, which provides valuable supplementary decision-making information for clinical decision-makers and guides the selection of the most appropriate treatment strategy.

Preoperative prediction of early recurrence of HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (≤5 cm) by visceral adipose tissue index

Background

This study aimed to investigate whether visceral adipose tissue index (VATI) is a significant risk factor for the early recurrence (ER) of HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (≤5 cm) after hepatectomy.

Methods

The recruited cohort patients who were positive for hepatitis B virus, presented with surgically confirmed HCC (≤5 cm) from Army Medical University (internal training cohort: n = 192) and Chongqing Medical University (external validation group: n = 46). We measured VATI, subcutaneous adipose tissue index (SATI) via computed tomography (CT). ER was defined as recurrence within 2 years after hepatectomy. The impact of parameters on outcome after hepatectomy for HCC was analyzed.

Results

Univariate analysis showed that alpha-fetoprotein levels (p = 0.044), body mass index (BMI) (p < 0.001), SATI (p < 0.001), and VATI (p < 0.001) were significantly different between ER and non-ER groups in internal training cohort. Multivariate analysis identified VATI as an independent risk factor for ER (odds ratio = 1.07, 95% confidence interval: 1.047-1.094, p < 0.001), with a AUC of 0.802, based on the cut-off value of VATI, which was divided into high risk (≥37.45 cm²/m²) and low risk (<37.45 cm²/m²) groups. The prognosis of low risk group was significantly higher than that of high risk group (p < 0.001). The AUC value of VATI in external validation group was 0.854.

Conclusion

VATI was an independent risk factor for the ER, and higher VATI was closely related to poor outcomes after hepatectomy for HBV-related HCC (≤5 cm).

Rethinking Liver Fibrosis Staging in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: New Insights from a Large Two-Center Cohort Study

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a prevalent and aggressive malignancy closely related to background chronic liver disease. This study aimed to explore predictive factors associated with background liver fibrosis burden in patients with HCC and sought to construct a practical predictive model for clinical use.

Methods

This large two-center retrospective cohort study evaluated data from Chinese medical centers. Uni- and multivariate ordinal logistic regression analyses were performed to identify variables associated with liver fibrosis stages. Predictive models based on variables identified by multivariate analysis were established in the Derivation Cohort and subjected to internal and external validation. Model performance was evaluated for discriminative and calibration abilities.

Results

Multivariate ordinal logistic regression analysis identified liver fibrosis severity score (LFSS), portal hypertension (PH) severity, plateletcrit (PCT) and model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) as independent predictors of liver fibrosis stage in HCC patients. Nomograms that integrated these factors disclosed that the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) to predict S1 in the Derivation and External Validation cohorts were 0.850 and 0.919, respectively. Internal validation disclosed C-indexes of 0.823 and 0.833 in the Derivation and External Validation cohorts, respectively, indicating that the nomogram had good and excellent performance for distinguishing between S1 and non-S1 patients. Nomogram performance in the Derivation and External Validation cohorts, respectively, was fair and good to predict stage S2 (AUROCs 0.726, 0.806; C-indexes 0.713, 0.791); poor for S3 (AUROCs 0.648, 0.698; C-indexes 0.616, 0.666); good for S4 (AUROCs 0.812, 0.824; C-indexes 0.804, 0.792); and good for S3+S4 (AUROCs 0.806, 0.840; C-indexes 0.795, 0.811).

Conclusion

We propose new predictive models for the staging of background liver fibrosis in patients with HCC that can be implemented into clinical practice as important complements to hepatic imaging to inform HCC management strategy.