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Kim BK, Ahn SH. Prediction model of hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma in patients receiving antiviral therapy. J Formos Med Assoc 2023; 122:1238-1246. [PMID: 37330305 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfma.2023.05.029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2022] [Revised: 05/15/2023] [Accepted: 05/24/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, which ultimately leads to liver cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), remains a significant disease burden worldwide. Despite the use of antiviral therapy (AVT) using oral nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUCs) with high genetic barriers, the risk of HCC development cannot be completely eliminated. Therefore, bi-annual surveillance of HCC using abdominal ultrasonography with or without tumor markers is recommended for at-risk populations. For a more precise assessment of future HCC risk at the individual level, many HCC prediction models have been proposed in the era of potent AVT with promising results. It allows prognostication according to the risk of HCC development, for example, low-vs. intermediate-vs. high-risk groups. Most of these models have the advantage of high negative predictive values for HCC development, allowing exemption from biannual HCC screening. Recently, non-invasive surrogate markers for liver fibrosis, such as vibration-controlled transient elastography, have been introduced as integral components of the equations, providing better predictive performance in general. Furthermore, beyond the conventional statistical methods that primarily depend on multi-variable Cox regression analyses based on the previous literature, newer techniques using artificial intelligence have also been applied in the design of HCC prediction models. Here, we aimed to review the HCC risk prediction models that were developed in the era of potent AVT and validated among independent cohorts to address the clinical unmet needs, as well as comment on future direction to establish the individual HCC risk more precisely.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beom Kyung Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Sang Hoon Ahn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
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Lee JS, Lee HW, Lim TS, Min IK, Lee HW, Kim SU, Park JY, Kim DY, Ahn SH, Kim BK. External Validation of the FSAC Model Using On-Therapy Changes in Noninvasive Fibrosis Markers in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B: A Multicenter Study. Cancers (Basel) 2022; 14:cancers14030711. [PMID: 35158982 PMCID: PMC8833581 DOI: 10.3390/cancers14030711] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2021] [Revised: 01/20/2022] [Accepted: 01/26/2022] [Indexed: 12/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Simple Summary We externally validated the recently suggested FSAC prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in treatment-naïve Asian chronic hepatitis B patients starting potent antiviral therapy (AVT). The model reflects age, sex, presence of cirrhosis, and on-therapy changes in non-invasive fibrosis markers (NFMs) after 12 months of antiviral therapy, such as APRI and FIB-4. Our results highlighted better predictive performance for the FSAC model for HCC (Harrell’s c-index: 0.770) than the PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, modified REACH-B, LSM-HCC, and CAMD models, which only use baseline parameters. A simplified version of FSAC score (i.e., FSAC (2)), including only NFMs at 12 months, also showed a high c-index value (0.763). Our retrospective study suggests that the accurate measurement of intra-hepatic fibrotic burden during adequate AVT is necessary for predicting HCC development. Abstract Antiviral therapy (AVT) induces the regression of non-invasive fibrosis markers (NFMs) and reduces hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk among chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. We externally validated the predictive performance of the FSAC prediction model for HCC using on-therapy NFM responses. Our multicenter study consecutively recruited treatment-naïve CHB patients (n = 3026; median age, 50.0 years; male predominant (61.3%); cirrhosis in 1391 (46.0%) patients) receiving potent AVTs for >18 months between 2007 and 2018. During follow-up (median 64.0 months), HCC developed in 303 (10.0%) patients. Patients with low FIB-4 or APRI levels at 12 months showed significantly lower HCC risk than those with high NFM levels at 12 months (all p < 0.05). Cumulative 3-, 5-, and 8-year HCC probabilities were 0.0%, 0.3% and 1.2% in the low-risk group (FSAC ≤ 2); 2.1%, 5.2%, and 11.1% in the intermediate-risk group (FSAC 3−8); and 5.2%, 15.5%, and 29.8% in the high-risk group (FSAC ≥ 9) (both p < 0.001 between each adjacent pair). Harrell’s c-index value for FSAC score (0.770) was higher than those for PAGE-B (0.725), modified PAGE-B (0.738), modified REACH-B (0.737), LSM-HCC (0.734), and CAMD (0.742). Our study showed that the FSAC model, which incorporates on-therapy changes in NFMs, had better predictive performance than other models using only baseline parameters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jae Seung Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea; (J.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (T.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (S.U.K.); (J.Y.P.); (D.Y.K.); (S.H.A.)
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul 03722, Korea
| | - Hyun Woong Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea; (J.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (T.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (S.U.K.); (J.Y.P.); (D.Y.K.); (S.H.A.)
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea
- Department of Internal Medicine, Gangnam Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 06273, Korea
| | - Tae Seop Lim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea; (J.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (T.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (S.U.K.); (J.Y.P.); (D.Y.K.); (S.H.A.)
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yongin Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Yongin-si 16995, Korea
| | - In Kyung Min
- Biostatistics Collaboration Unit, Department of Biomedical Systems Informatics, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea;
| | - Hye Won Lee
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea; (J.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (T.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (S.U.K.); (J.Y.P.); (D.Y.K.); (S.H.A.)
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul 03722, Korea
| | - Seung Up Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea; (J.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (T.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (S.U.K.); (J.Y.P.); (D.Y.K.); (S.H.A.)
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul 03722, Korea
| | - Jun Yong Park
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea; (J.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (T.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (S.U.K.); (J.Y.P.); (D.Y.K.); (S.H.A.)
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul 03722, Korea
| | - Do Young Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea; (J.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (T.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (S.U.K.); (J.Y.P.); (D.Y.K.); (S.H.A.)
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul 03722, Korea
| | - Sang Hoon Ahn
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea; (J.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (T.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (S.U.K.); (J.Y.P.); (D.Y.K.); (S.H.A.)
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul 03722, Korea
| | - Beom Kyung Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea; (J.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (T.S.L.); (H.W.L.); (S.U.K.); (J.Y.P.); (D.Y.K.); (S.H.A.)
- Institute of Gastroenterology, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul 03722, Korea
- Yonsei Liver Center, Severance Hospital, Seoul 03722, Korea
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +82-2-2228-1932; Fax: +82-2-393-6884
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